This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Greenpapers has Delegate Estimates! Thank You!

Thank you! Someone actually doing the delegate estimating process! (Which of course I found minutes after posting my previous rant about how even though the “straw poll” is non-binding, there is process happening that should allow some delegate estimation and it is annoying that nobody was doing any delegate estimation at all! :-) )

Iowa Republican Delegation 2012

Here’s how we estimate the delegate count on 3 January 2012: (Note that zero national convention delegates are allocated during the Precinct Caucuses – national convention delegates are first elected in June.)

We will allocate the state’s 25 non-party leader delegates proportionally according to the popular vote for those candidates receiving 5% or more of the vote. This is a very rough estimate and is will change by the time the state convention meets.

As of 04:00 UTC they have this breakdown of Iowa’s 28 delegates:

  • 6 Delegates – Santorum
  • 6 Delegates – Romney
  • 6 Delegates – Paul
  • 3 Delegates – Gingrich
  • 3 Delegates – Perry
  • 3 Delegates – Party Leaders, what we called “super delegates” back in 2008, they will decide on their own, and no breakdown is given yet on if any of them have declared a preference.
  • 1 Delegate – Bachmann

I think I’ll be using Greenpapers as my primary source for my own delegate charts this cycle. Thank you Greenpapers. :-)

Oh, and of course Greenpapers has full national delegate estimates too.

Edited 04:17 UTC to reflect 28 delegates for Iowa and less superdelegates than I had originally stated.

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