This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.



Greenpapers has Delegate Estimates! Thank You!

Thank you! Someone actually doing the delegate estimating process! (Which of course I found minutes after posting my previous rant about how even though the “straw poll” is non-binding, there is process happening that should allow some delegate estimation and it is annoying that nobody was doing any delegate estimation at all! :-) )

Iowa Republican Delegation 2012

Here’s how we estimate the delegate count on 3 January 2012: (Note that zero national convention delegates are allocated during the Precinct Caucuses – national convention delegates are first elected in June.)

We will allocate the state’s 25 non-party leader delegates proportionally according to the popular vote for those candidates receiving 5% or more of the vote. This is a very rough estimate and is will change by the time the state convention meets.

As of 04:00 UTC they have this breakdown of Iowa’s 28 delegates:

  • 6 Delegates – Santorum
  • 6 Delegates – Romney
  • 6 Delegates – Paul
  • 3 Delegates – Gingrich
  • 3 Delegates – Perry
  • 3 Delegates – Party Leaders, what we called “super delegates” back in 2008, they will decide on their own, and no breakdown is given yet on if any of them have declared a preference.
  • 1 Delegate – Bachmann

I think I’ll be using Greenpapers as my primary source for my own delegate charts this cycle. Thank you Greenpapers. :-)

Oh, and of course Greenpapers has full national delegate estimates too.

Edited 04:17 UTC to reflect 28 delegates for Iowa and less superdelegates than I had originally stated.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.