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@abulsme tweets from 2015-07-08 (UTC)

2 comments to @abulsme tweets from 2015-07-08 (UTC)

  • NC has now a lot of Mexican workers – supporting Trump in a poll is an easy way for “traditional” folk there to express ethnic/racial unease/anger/hate they might not so quickly voice in public

  • The dynamics here are that there is a part of the Republican party that is very sympathetic to the kind of things Trump says. There is also about 70% that in polls says they would never consider voting for him. But those 70% are split over the dozen plus candidates in the field, so as long as Trump gets a good fraction of the folks who say they would even consider him, he can be at the top of the charts. Nobody on the Republican side has over 20% right now. Plus, you get this sloshing around of all the people who just want to find an anti-Bush (the natural establishment “next in line”) as they just test out supporting one candidate after another. There was a very similar dynamic in 2008, where each of the candidates got a turn at a poll spike as things settled out… all the while with Romney staying slow and steady and constant and once actual voting started quickly grinding out the delegate race. By the end of January 2012 Romney was solidified as front runner. Then Super Tuesday in early March essentially sealed the deal. Everything after that was just mopping things up. All these crazy dynamics tend to happen in the year before the election, but once we get past Iowa and New Hampshire things will move very fast… and Trump will not be anywhere close to the lead by that point. In fact, if he hasn’t already hit his peak at this point, I will be very surprised…

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