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August 2006

Of Course

Of course they updated the charts I like better seconds after I made that last post. Our new odds…

Between 5% and 10% chance of hurricane force winds. Down from before.

And just over a 60% chance of tropical storm force winds.

Odds in Miami and the SC coast are about the same (between 5% and 10%) for hurricane force winds. For tropical storm force winds Miami is more like 78% chance and SC just over 40%.

Anyway, looks like the odds are in favor of our house getting some really nasty weather, but not devastating destruction type weather. Here’s hoping “really nasty” turns out to be more like nice fluffy bunnies and not anything we end up having to care about at all.

Getting Better


An improvement. The line is still pretty much directly over our house, but it is now predicted to only be a tropical storm by that time. The last “odds view” published by the NHC is about 8 hours old now, but says we have about a 10% chance of hurricane force winds and about a 60% chance of tropical storm force winds. I’m eagerly waiting for the next update of that view, cause I think it means a lot more.

Not to say that even tropical storm force winds are desireable. We really don’t need even minor damage to the house right now given our distance and that we potentially have an almost confirmed deal on the house right now…

I note however that it is supposed to be a hurricane again by the time it gets to South Carolina. Isn’t that where Rebecca is on vacation?

Insert Four Letter Expletive of Choice


I prefer the probability view, but it gets updated less frequently. The 9 UTC NHC Cone update just happened though (a little early), and we’re just to the right of the center line. Now, it will have been traveling over land for awhile by then, but it is still an H, not an S, and even a minimal H is not to be sneezed at.

Now, reading the predictions, there is a good chance that it will weaken significantly over Cuba and may end up not being much of anything by the time it gets to Florida… or it may strengthen significantly and actually be a real threat.

Crossing our fingers that either Cuba gives this storm a knockout blow while it goes over and it never gets back up to Hurricane strength, or the track keeps moving east and it ends up missing Florida entirely.

Of course, with the current track my friend Ivan in the Miami area is right on the target line too. So good luck to Ivan too!

Ivan, what’s the report from Miami? Does anybody care about this one at all, or does everybody assume it will be a non-event?