This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



September 2008

Electoral College: PA Strengthens for Obama, NC Flips to Obama

Two changes today, both potentially significant moves in the Obama direction:

Pennsylvania (21 ev): After spending most of the month of September as a swing state, Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania once again moves over 5%, pulling Pennsylvania from “Lean Obama” to “Weak Obama”. While Obama still can’t take this (or any Weak state) completely for granted, at this point he should be able to feel much better about it, and not have to worry TOO much about McCain stealing it out from under him. Having Pennsylvania no longer close is a very good thing for Obama.

North Carolina (15 ev): For the first time, in the five poll average, Obama actually takes the lead in NORTH CAROLINA. North Carolina has gone Republican in 9 out of the last 10 presidential elections. (The one exception was 1976 for Carter.) Now, the usual caveat applies. This is moving from just barely McCain, to just barely Obama. Either way the state is close and should really be considered too close to call. Being slightly on one side of the line, or slightly on the other side, may not really be significant. However, having this state poke over to this side of the line is a definite indication of general McCain weakness right now.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 298, Obama 240
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163

If everybody gets their leans – 301 Obama, 237 McCain

As of right now, the general state of the race is not quite back to where Obama was at his high point back in July… but it is getting close. A couple more states flipping in his direction and ge could get there.

And while McCain still has a best case (if he gets ALL the swing states) where he wins, the situation is looking more and more favorable by the day. Without any swing states, Obama now is only 30 electoral votes from the win. Without any swing states, McCain needs 107 electoral votes for the win. This race is once again getting quite unbalanced in Obama’s favor.