This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

Categories

Calendar

October 2021
S M T W T F S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  

Electoral College: Called – Missouri for McCain – That’s All Folks

Based on the “Last Updated” time on CNN’s election results site, my best estimate for when Missouri was called by CNN is 21:09 UTC yesterday. So consider this to me an update covering the time immediately prior to 21:15 UTC yesterday.

Missouri is called for McCain. This is the last outstanding state.

This makes the results (assuming no faithless electors) Obama 365, McCain 173… which has been what it would look like it would be for quite a bit now, but now it is official. (Well, not really, not until the electoral college votes… but all states have been called by CNN now.)

So, how did I do?

Well, every single state that I did not say was a too close to call swing state, I got right. But lets be a little more critical than that. If you look at my last regular daily update on November 3rd, the “Current Status” where everybody got their leans had Obama 338, McCain 200. What did I miss? I thought McCain would win North Carolina, Indiana and all of Nebraska. Obama of course ended up winning North Carolina, Indiana and Nebraska’s 2nd District.

Of these, I had considered both North Carolina and Indiana as too close to call and that they could easily go either way. So not too upset about that. On Nebraska I had decided early on not to look at the possibility of Nebraska splitting unless the state itself looked somewhat close. That seems like an error now. However, I’m not sure what else I would have done, as I did not see regular polling on the separate Nebraska districts anyway.

BUT… there was one more error…. after my last daily update on the 3rd, I continued to log polls as they came in on election day itself, before the real polls started closing. I logged one change early in the day that flipped Missouri to just barely on the Obama side of the line instead of just barely on the McCain side of the line.

So my actual final “everybody gets their leans” prediction was Obama 349, McCain 189 which was actually closer to the actual final result than my final prediction on the 3rd, but only because a couple of the states I got wrong canceled each other out. (Missouri and Indiana both have 11 electoral votes, so when I got them both wrong the total remained the same.)

So, in the end, out of 50 states and DC, I ended up predicting correctly on all except North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and the 2nd district of Nebraska. And my electoral college total was only off by 16. And with the exception of that pesky single electoral vote from Nebraska, all of the states which I “missed” were states that I had actually described as being too close to call.

All and all, I think those are pretty good results. So I am happy with that.

I’ll do one more update when I combine the wiki pages for the historical predictions through the race with the pages reflecting actual results and get everything all cleaned up to sit there forever for random people googling about the 2008 race. And then I’ll finally be done with this! :-)

Edit 21 Nov 04:06 UTC: Fixed Typo in Obama’s actual electoral college vote total (365 instead of 265). Thanks to the reader who pointed this out.

Electoral College: Called (Again) – Nebraska Second District

I stopped checking every fifteen minutes many days ago. I even stopped checking every few hours. But I was still checking at least once a day, and at 03:00 UTC today I noted that CNN finally, many days after other news organizations did so, reversed their earlier call, and moved Nebraska’s Second Congressional District into Obama’s column.

So we now have:

McCain Best Case: Obama 365, McCain 173
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 376, McCain 162
Obama Best Case: Obama 376, McCain 162

The one remaining state, Missouri, is still officially too close to call. However most analysis I’ve seen shows it is highly unlikely that Obama will take the state, so of the remaining scenarios, it looks like the “McCain Best Case” is the one likely to happen.

Official results in Missouri are due on Tuesday. It is likely to be close enough that Obama COULD ask for a recount. But he is pretty unlikely to actually bother, as it won’t make a difference to the final outcome… other than to potentially put him over the 375 electoral vote line that some people use to define a landslide.

Electoral College: Called – North Carolina for Obama

This update reflects states called by CNN in the 15 minutes before 15:30 UTC on November 7th.

There was one state called. North Carolina for Obama. This was the second “surprise” of the season compared to my immediately pre-poll closing predictions. North Carolina had been in the Obama column since the end of September, but had moved to the McCain side right before the election. This makes my record at this point 48 out of 50, with one state left to call.

New summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 364, McCain 174
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 375, McCain 163
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

I should note however, that although CNN called Nebraska’s 2nd District for McCain, and has not yet retracted that on their Election Results Page, many other sources have since called that district for Obama, thus taking an electoral vote away from McCain and giving it to Obama.

I’ll keep sticking with CNN’s tally here though, although they have been excruciatingly slow after the point Obama reached 270. I think in 4 years I’ll have to use a different primary source.

For the moment though, I presume CNN will eventually catch up on the Nebraska electoral vote, and will eventually call Missouri.

Edit Nov 17 05:32 UTC: Corrected Obama numbers in the three scenarios above, which were all missing 3 electoral votes (from Vermont). The numbers above are now correct.

Electoral College: Called – Indiana for Obama

This update reflects states that were called by CNN in the 15 minutes before 16:15 UTC.

A number of places called Indiana last night, but CNN just called it now, for Obama. This is the first state which has gone in a different direction than the “everybody gets their leans” numbers as of right before the polls closed. That average had McCain ahead by 3.4%. But Obama wins the state.

The range of possibilities left for the final electoral college count (absent faithless electors) is now very narrow:

McCain Best Case: Obama 349, McCain 189
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 360, McCain 178
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

North Carolina and Missouri are still too close to call.

Electoral College: Called – Montana for McCain

This update covers the 15 minutes prior to 08:15 UTC.

Montana gets called for McCain. The range of possible results narrows a bit more.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 375, McCain 163

If one sticks to one common definition of landslide, namely 375 electoral votes or more, Obama now needs to sweep the remaining three states for this to be a “landslide”. Of course, there is no single accepted definition of landslide, and some people will be calling this such regardless.

Still waiting on North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. Still no deviations from the predictions this site had with the “everybody gets their leans” line immediately before the polls closed.

Of course, various places are now calling Indiana for Obama. If CNN eventually decides to agree, that will be the first deviation from predictions, as the five poll average here had McCain again by 3.4% heading into the election.

Edit 09:24 UTC – Added the slug about the time the update covered, which I had forgotten when I originally posted.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa was the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page and on this post but not on the two older posts that were effected. (Although I have added notes on those posts about the error.) Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Electoral College: Called – Nebraska (Omaha District) for McCain

This is an update covering the 15 minutes before 07:30 UTC.

CNN has now called the 1 electoral vote for the Omaha district of Nebraska. It joins the rest of the state and goes for McCain.

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprises. Four states still outstanding. North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Montana have yet to be called.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Electoral College: Called – Alaska

This is the 06:45 UTC update, reflecting states that were called in the 15 minutes before that time.

Just one. Alaska, as expected, was called for Sarah Palin… uh… John McCain.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200
Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189
Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

Still no surprise states. North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, and the Omaha district of Nebraska yet to be called.

(I made a correction to the 04:45 update at 06:03 UTC to reflect the fact that 1 of Nebraska’s electoral votes had not yet been called. The graphs have been corrected accordingly.)

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Electoral College: Called – South Dakota, Nebraska and Nevada

This is the 04:45 UTC update, covering states that were called in the 15 minutes before that.

South Dakota and Nebraska for McCain.

Nevada for Obama.

I’l drop the “SuperBest” estimates from the summary, as there are no longer any uncalled “Weak” states.

Summary:

McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160

There have still been no surprise states.

I am now once again caught up with all the states CNN has called. There are still five states yet to be called. Alaska, which should go McCain. And then North Carolina, Indiana and Montana which are leaning McCain. And finally Missouri which was leaning Obama.

We’ll see if any of those end up being surprises. North Carolina and Missouri were both within a percent as of the last polls. If there is a surprise, I would guess it would be one of those two states. But Indiana or Montana switching would also be well within the realm of possibility.

So far my final predictions from right before the polls closed are 46 for 46. We’ll see how the last 5 states go. :-)

Edit 06:03 UTC – Actually, it looks like CNN has only called 4 out of the 5 electoral votes for Nebraska. Looks like that 1 electoral vote (probably Omaha) is still too close to call. Gotta love the states that split their votes.

Edit 15:15 UTC – A reader pointed out that Iowa is the wrong color in the map above. This has been corrected on the main page. Bad paint tool. Bad. The numbers however are correct.

Electoral College: Called – Arizona, Colorado and Florida

This is the 04:30 update, covering states called in the 15 minutes prior to that time.

Three states called. Arizona for McCain. Colorado and Florida for Obama.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 333, McCain 205
McCain Best Case: Obama 338, McCain 200

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 378, McCain 160
Obama SuperBest: Obama 378, McCain 160

There have still been no surprise states.

Electoral College: Called – CA, OR, WA, HI, ID – Pushed Obama Over 270

This is the 04:15 UTC update, covering the states that were called in the 15 minutes previous to that time.

These are the states that pushed Obama over the top. All were “Strong” states.

California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii for Obama.
Idaho for McCain.

Summary:

McCain SuperBest: Obama 297, McCain 241
McCain Best Case: Obama 311, McCain 227

Current “everybody gets their leans”: Obama 349, McCain 189

Obama Best Case: Obama 388, McCain 150
Obama SuperBest: Obama 388, McCain 150

Still no surprises.