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Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-18 (UTC)

  • 06:54:10 After some consideration, I have removed some UArk poll results that were Clinton vs Generic Republican in AR.
  • 06:57:38 I include prev elec results in my avg’s when there are not enough polls on a candidate pair in a state, other generics didn’t seem to fit.
  • 06:59:02 Since this affected the average in AR for Clinton vs every Republican, there were many status changes.
  • 06:59:18 I will report here on just those affecting the “top five” best polled combos.
  • 06:59:43 That would be Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Cruz.
  • 07:02:48 In AR, Clinton vs Christie moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Christie.
  • 07:03:34 In AR, Clinton vs Paul moved from Weak Paul to Strong Paul.
  • 07:04:09 In AR, Clinton vs Bush moved from Weak Bush to Strong Bush.
  • 07:04:44 In AR, Clinton vs Huckabee moved from Strong Huckabee to Solid Huckabee.
  • 07:05:30 In AR, Clinton vs Cruz moved from Strong Cruz to Solid Cruz.
  • 07:06:48 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Christie moved from Clinton by 204 to Clinton by 192.
  • 07:07:43 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Paul moved from Clinton by 236 to Clinton by 224.
  • 07:08:29 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Bush moved from Clinton by 188 to Clinton by 176.
  • 07:09:18 Nationally, expected Clinton vs Christie moved from Clinton by 168 to Clinton by 156.
  • 07:10:19 None of the Republican best cases, nor the tipping point states or margins changed after eliminating the UArk results.
  • 07:13:15 The order of the “best polled” pairs did change fr Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee, Cruz to Christie, Bush, Paul. Huckabee, Cruz.
  • 07:16:30 That’s it for the changes caused by removing the UArk Clinton vs Generic Republican results in AR. Sorry for all the changes.

@abulsme tweets from 2014-10-18 (UTC)