This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Electoral College poll updates from 2014-10-18 (UTC)

  • 06:54:10 After some consideration, I have removed some UArk poll results that were Clinton vs Generic Republican in AR.
  • 06:57:38 I include prev elec results in my avg’s when there are not enough polls on a candidate pair in a state, other generics didn’t seem to fit.
  • 06:59:02 Since this affected the average in AR for Clinton vs every Republican, there were many status changes.
  • 06:59:18 I will report here on just those affecting the “top five” best polled combos.
  • 06:59:43 That would be Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee and Cruz.
  • 07:02:48 In AR, Clinton vs Christie moved from Weak Clinton to Strong Christie.
  • 07:03:34 In AR, Clinton vs Paul moved from Weak Paul to Strong Paul.
  • 07:04:09 In AR, Clinton vs Bush moved from Weak Bush to Strong Bush.
  • 07:04:44 In AR, Clinton vs Huckabee moved from Strong Huckabee to Solid Huckabee.
  • 07:05:30 In AR, Clinton vs Cruz moved from Strong Cruz to Solid Cruz.
  • 07:06:48 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Christie moved from Clinton by 204 to Clinton by 192.
  • 07:07:43 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Paul moved from Clinton by 236 to Clinton by 224.
  • 07:08:29 Nationally, Clinton best case vs Bush moved from Clinton by 188 to Clinton by 176.
  • 07:09:18 Nationally, expected Clinton vs Christie moved from Clinton by 168 to Clinton by 156.
  • 07:10:19 None of the Republican best cases, nor the tipping point states or margins changed after eliminating the UArk results.
  • 07:13:15 The order of the “best polled” pairs did change fr Clinton vs Christie, Paul, Bush, Huckabee, Cruz to Christie, Bush, Paul. Huckabee, Cruz.
  • 07:16:30 That’s it for the changes caused by removing the UArk Clinton vs Generic Republican results in AR. Sorry for all the changes.

@abulsme tweets from 2014-10-18 (UTC)