This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



January 2008

Obama Won New Hampshire After All?

Just saw this posting by Brendan Loy. It points out that of course in delegates determined by the primary it was actually a tie, 9 Clinton, 9 Obama, 4 Edwards… but if you add in the votes of the 5 superdelegates (known before the primary) it becomes 12 Obama, 11 Clinton, 4 Edwards.

Oops. We’ll have to change all those headlines now, right? Oh, guess not. Oh well.

Hillary Clinton did not win New Hampshire
(Brendan Loy, Irish Trojan)

If the convention were held today, New Hampshire’s turn in the roll call would go something like this: “Mr. Speaker, the great state of New Hampshire, the Granite State, proud home of the first-in-the-nation primary, led by our great Democratic governor, John Lynch; New Hampshire, home of the 2007 Canadian-American League champion Nashua Pride baseball team and the 2006-2007 AHL Atlantic Division champion Manchester Monarchs hockey team; New Hampshire, whose state motto ‘live free or die’ was once again embodied last year when we became the first state to legalize same-sex unions without a court order or a threatened court order; New Hampshire, which cast its four electoral votes for John Kerry in 2004, and will once again proudly support a Democrat for president in 2008; Mr. Speaker, New Hampshire casts 12 votes for Barack Obama, 11 votes for Hillary Clinton, and 4 votes for John Edwards!”

Graphing the Presidential Race

I wanted graphs over time of the delegate counts, but hadn’t seen one yet, so I went ahead and made a set of them. Since it was the easiest way for me, I just set this up on my wiki page. I will update these after each new primary or caucus (or if I notice any changes in between as superdelegates commit and such).

For those interested, click through below:

2008 Presidential Delegate Graphs

The following are graphs of the delegate counts for the US presidential race in both parties on a day by day basis. Data is taken from CNN’s Democratic Scorecard and Republican Scorecard pages. At a minimum, graphs will be updated after new primary and caucus results. Changes to superdelegate totals between primaries and caucuses may or may not be caught on the day they occur. The totals are as of the start of the day, so typically results of primaries and caucuses will show up on the day following those contests.

Results are shown both as a total number of delegates, and as a percentage of the delegates which have been allocated as of that date.

It is interesting to note how everybody didn’t start at zero before Iowa due to superdelegates and unpledged delegates who had already stated a preference.

Updated Delegate Count After NH

New standings as of this moment in terms of everybody with at least 1 committed delegate:

Democrats (2025 needed to win):

  • 183 (55.0%) – Clinton
  • 78 (23.4%) – Obama
  • 52 (15.6%) – Edwards
  • 19 (5.7%) – Richardson
  • 1 (0.3%) – Kucinich

Republicans (1191 needed to win):

  • 30 (42.3%) – Romney
  • 21 (29.6%) – Huckabee
  • 10 (14.1%) – McCain
  • 6 (8.5%) – Thompson
  • 2 (2.8%) – Paul
  • 1 (1.4%) – Guiliani
  • 1 (1.4%) – Hunter

Apparently the delegates that Dodd and Biden had collected became uncommitted after they dropped out.

Wow – Upset – Fun

CNN just declared the winner. Obama has conceeded.

Hillary pulls out an upset, completely contrary to all recent poll results. And once again the dynamics of the race change completely again. Will Obama’s new found lead in South Carolina start to evaporate? Will Hillary’s leads elsewhere consolidate?

If Obama had won the way the polls said, this would probably have been nearly over as the momentum grew.

Now… it is all wide open again… and the advantage has to go back to Hillary… she is ahead on delegates, and she is ahead in more of the upcoming states… and has better organization in the Super Duper Tuesday states.

And of course the Republican map is still completely crazy.

Wow. This is such a fun election season. Can’t get better than this.