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February 2008
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And then Obama was Ahead…

As predicted by me (and almost everybody) Obama pulled ahead in the total delegate count based on the results of the Potomac Primaries. Frankly, at this point I know the pundits are all talking about how this may come down to the convention, and we may hit a situation where Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and Clinton potentially is put over the top by superdelegates and this results to all sorts of fun shenanegans. This would be fun, but I don’t think it will happen any more. I think Obama has passed Clinton and will just keep increasing the gap. I think even if the things continue to be close enough that the superdelegates are the deciding margin, Obama will have more than enough superdelegates to put him over the edge.

Now, we still have a long way to go between here and there. Maybe Ohio and Texas will go so heavily Clinton to put the brakes on the lead Obama builds in February and put Hillary back in the lead again. Hillary does seem to have a substantial lead in those states. And Pennsylvania feels like it might be Hillary country too at the moment. But that might change. And it might not be enough… Sigh, even as I type this I am becoming a bit less convinced of what I said in the first paragraph. Anyway, Obama is ahead now, but not actually over 50%. Right now we stand at Obama 49.98%, Clinton 48.95%, Edwards 1.07%.

That’s still pretty darn close. I guess there should be no egg counting yet. Lets see how Wisconsin and Hawaii go next week.

Oh yeah, and McCain continues to consolidate his lead on the way to 1191 delegates and the nomination. 379 delegates to go.

Foot