This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



February 2008

Mrs Arnold

One more quick note, and then I have to run to work.

I shot a quick email off to Ivan, but didn’t bother posting yesterday (as I was still editing and putting together the podcast) when I heard about Maria Shriver’s surprise Obama endorsement. I think it might just be the thing that puts Obama over the edge in California. In recent polls he has been neck and neck. That will get him a bunch of additional in-state free press.

Delegates in CA will pretty much split close to evenly no matter how things go there, but whoever actually pulls out the “win” will get a lot of attention from it. (As mentioned in this week’s podcast.)

Which, by the way, for those of you who read the blog but don’t listen to the podcast, you’ve missed some of our best weeks ever these last few weeks. Well, at least we’ve been having lots of fun. :-) You should all tune in damn it. :-)


Yesterday I joked a bit about a Mittmiracle in terms of how good McCain looks tomorrow in the primaries. But perhaps I was a bit hasty. There has been a bit of Mittmentum, especially in recent days. It may well end up being, like I said earlier, too little too late… but looking at the charts… Mitt has recently started polling ahead or close to ahead in more states. Right now it looks like he has Utah, Massachusetts and Colorado locked up. But he is also within spitting distance now in Georgia, Tennessee, Delaware, Missouri and most importantly California. And of course there are still some smaller states with no polls at all, so who knows what will happen there. If he manages to pull out California, plus a few more of the “spitting distance” states, he may manage to keep things alive for a little bit longer.

But McCain still has the big advantage.

Close Republican Race – For a Bit

As expected, Romney gets the delegates from Maine. If you look at the charts, this means that as of today the delegate race is very very close. Romney and McCain are neck and neck.

But then you look at the Super Tuesday Polls and you realize that Romney is way behind in most of those states. Romney does seem to have some positive momentum in a few states. But it looks to be too little too late. If there were lots of proportional states like on the Democratic side, one might say that he was close in a lot of states and it might be very competitive still after Tuesday. But most of these states are winner takes all.

Given that, this may well be effectively over on the Republican side after Tuesday.

Absent a Mittmiracle. :-)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Green Airplanes Fly to Super Tuesday

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Ivan’s Death Flight
  • Carnival Nipples
  • Missing iPhones
  • Global Warming in School
  • Doubt, Policy and Truth in School
  • Ivan and Sam go light Green
  • Republicans and McCain
  • Dem Super Duper Tight Tuesday

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