This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



September 2008

Electoral College: McMentum Continues

The pollsters are ramping up their activities. Since my update yesterday, there were new polls in 14 states. In several of those states there were multiple polls. I may have to reevaluate what time of day I usually do these updates to be sure I actually have time to do them each day. In any case…

Of those 14 states, only 2 states actually changed categories, and both showed movement toward McCain.

North Carolina (15 ev): North Carolina had been one of those states where Obama had been hoping to break into traditional “red” territory. Obama had never taken the lead in North Carolina, but at one point he had narrowed McCain’s lead to less than 1%. No more. Recent polls have shown large McCain leads. With three new polls today, and two earlier in the week, the five poll average now shows McCain leading by more than 5% (in fact, almost 10%). This takes North Carolina out of “Lean McCain” and into “Weak McCain” with momentum toward going even further. This takes North Carolina out of play for Obama and yet again diminishes his hopes for “expanding the Democratic map” and moves him more toward trying to hold Kerry states and battling in the “traditional” swing states like Ohio.

Georgia (15 ev): Georgia is another state that at one point Obama had hoped to flip, or at least force McCain into needing to expend resources there to hold it. Despite putting in a lot of resources here, he never really got very far. My five point average never showed McCain ahead by less than 5%. So Georgia has always been a “red state” and never slipped into being a swing state. But now McCain’s position has been consolidated. In today’s update, McCain’s lead in Georgia moves over 10%, moving Georgia from “Weak McCain” to “Strong McCain”. This is far enough away from being a swing state, that Obama probably shouldn’t even waste any more effort here.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 324, Obama 214
Obama Best Case – Obama 366, McCain 172

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 273, McCain 265

So for now, McCain’s momentum continues.

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