This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



June 2012

@abulsme Updates from 2012-06-16 (UTC)

  • Reading – Executive Overreach (John Yoo) #
  • Reading – A Guide to Forecast Model Updates (Nate Silver) #
  • Reading – That Big Thing Everyone Is Talking About Today (Radley Balko) #
  • Reading – iOS 6's Smaller Changes: Custom Email Alerts, 'Find My Friends' Geofencing and More (Jordan Golson) #
  • Reading – Hillary Clinton, Jeff Bezos to announce Kindle Mobile Learning Initiative next Wednesday (Laura Hazard Owen) #
  • Reading – Obama's Best Buds: The Bushes (Andrew Sullivan) #
  • Reading – Microsoft and Amazon to Rekindle Tablet Efforts (Goldy, Slog) #
  • Reading – Friday Flashback: “You will never see a major housing price crash here.” (The Tim, Seattle Bubble) #
  • Reading – Voyager 1 Breaking Through the Borders of the Solar System (Jason Major) #
  • Reading – How Long Before VPNs Become Illegal? (Ernesto, Torrentfreak) #
  • Reading – Opinion About Recess Appointments is "Eyes Only" (Kevin Drum) #
  • Reading – Obama's Immigration "Game-Changer" ( Andrew Sullivan) #
  • I played him in a school play in elementary school – Crazy Charles Guiteau (Neatorama) #
  • Reading – Internet Archive Sues to Stop New Washington State Law (Rebecca, EFF) #
  • Reading – A Tipping Point in Syria? (Jeffrey Goldberg) #
  • Reading – Egyptians vote for president with political transition in turmoil (Kristen Chick) #
  • Reading – Obama immigration order: Does 'audacity of hope' mean unchecked presidential power? (Patrik Jonsson) #
  • Reading – The crayola-fication of the world (aatish, Empirical Zeal) #
  • Reading – Roadwork will bring mess back to Mercer (Mike Lindblom) #
  • Reading – Knolling: a verb for those who like things nice and kentucky (Cory Doctorow) #
  • Reading – Famous Novelists on Symbolism in Their Work and Whether It Was Intentional (Wil Wheaton) #
  • Reading – 5th grader barred from giving speech on marriage equality by principal, later reversed (Cory Doctorow) #
  • Reading – FunnyJunk's lawyer vows revenge on The Oatmeal and Matthew Inman (Cory Doctorow) #

Electoral College: Michigan stops swinging after only one day! (Plus Wisconsin correction)

Chart and map from the 2012 Electoral College Prediction page. Both assume Obama vs Romney with no strong third party candidate. Both show polling as it currently exists. Things will change before election day. On the map red is Romney, blue is Obama, gold states are too close to call. Lines on the chart represent how many more electoral votes a candidate would have than is needed to tie under several different scenarios. Up is good for Obama, Down is good for Romney.

So, um, the change from yesterday, I guess, well, never mind:

So, yesterday a new poll pulled Obama’s lead in the five poll average in Michigan under 5%. Today another new poll pulls that lead back up over 5% again. Easy come, easy go I guess. This takes Michigan once again out of the set of states we consider going both ways in our models.

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 281 257
Current Status 206 332
Obama Best Case 159 379

So, we can, for the moment anyway, just take everything I said yesterday about momentum in Romney’s direction, and say “OK, maybe not so much after all”. Romney’s best case is now back in the range it has been ever since the end of February, with relatively narrow paths to victory. Maybe we’ll see a more permanent move in that direction soon… but not yet.

Meanwhile, one final correction due to the data from a spreadsheet provided by Darryl at HorsesAss. With more precise information from a poll back in February, one of Wisconsin’s transitions, from Weak Obama to Strong Obama, moves from March 30th to March 31st. The rest of Wisconsin’s history stays the same (it has moved around several times), as does the current situation as a “Weak Obama” state where Obama leads by between 5% and 10%. This only affects the older part of the historical chart. That chart is adjusted starting with today’s update.