This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Curmudgeon’s Corner: Down 99.8%

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and IvГЎn talk about:
* No Longer at Ease / Birth of a Nation
* State of the Union
* Microsoft Announcements
* North Korea / Switzerland

Recorded 2015-01-22

Length this week – 1:01:53

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Electoral College: Christie fades in Pennsylvania

Polling in the last couple months has been a bit slow. Prior to the 2014 elections, there had been a lot of polling piggy backing on Senate polls. Not so much since the election. But finally, with the batch of polls I processed today, for the first time since I launched the Election 2016 site in November, there has been a change worth a blog post!*

Namely, looking at the Clinton vs Christie combination, with the addition of a PPP poll released on Thursday, Pennsylvania has slipped from “Weak Clinton” to “Strong Clinton”:


(Click through on the image for more details on the specific polls, etc.)

Now, you’ll notice there haven’t been all that many polls here. The five poll average at the moment covers 1.1 years. That is a long time. But even with this small number, you can see that in late 2013, Christie appears to have had a bit of a spike, making Pennsylvania look like a close state, with one poll even showing Christie ahead. But the more recent polls show Clinton with a healthy lead, and the 5 poll average now has Clinton with a 6.0% lead.

Now, this still leaves Christie looking better in Pennsylvania than the other 4 combinations that are “best polled” nationally:


(Again, click through on the image for more detail.)

Paul, Bush, Ryan and Huckabee all trail Clinton by more than 10% in Pennsylvania. So I guess Christie still has that.

Looking at what this means nationally, with Pennsylvania taken out of the “possible” category for Christie… at least for now… the summary for Clinton vs Christie looks like this:

Screen Shot 2015-01-23 at 09.09.44481

After Christie’s best case peaked at winning by 116 electoral votes back in February 2014, the trend has been downward, and the new change just continues that:


(Once again, click through on the image for… oh, never mind… you get how that works now, right?)

A lot of the “movement” here is still polling catching up with reality, but it does seem like Christie continues to fade, and so far he has not been able to reverse his fortunes. There is of course still a long time until we even get to the Iowa caucuses, let alone the 2016 election, but Christie isn’t doing all that great at the moment.

Since it is Christie’s “best case” that changed with the latest update, lets also take a quick look at the Republican best cases for all of the best polled combinations:


Wow, that looks messy. You’ll note that at the moment none of the five Republicans win against Clinton, even if you give them all of the close states. It looks like Huckabee actually has the best best case, but Huckabee is also the least well polled of the five, so take that one with a grain of salt. Otherwise, in terms of their best cases, in the last six to nine months while Christie’s situation has deteriorated vs Clinton, Bush and Ryan have improved theirs, and Paul has been basically flat.

Of course, Ryan has taken himself out of the race at this point. And Romney seems to have jumped in. As I described last week, as new polls are released Clinton vs Ryan should drop off the “Top 5 Best Polled” list and Clinton vs Romney will probably rise onto it. But not yet. Clinton vs Ryan is still #4 at the moment. The two additional polls for Clinton vs Romney since last week (one in NJ and one in PA) have moved Clinton vs Romney from the 21st best polled combination all the way up to… the 20th best polled combination. Still quite a ways to go. And still very sparse data. But if Romney is serious, the polls will come soon enough.

Stay tuned…

* For the moment, I consider a change to be “worth posting” if it involves one of the five best polled candidate pairs and it either changes one of the “summary” stats (the expected margin, the Republican best case margin, the Democratic best case margin), or there is a change to the tipping point margin of at least 0.1%. Of course, ALL changes in the summary, the tipping point margins, state categorizations, and even individual polls, for all candidate combinations, are posted at @ElecCollPolls for those interested in all those details.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-01-22 (UTC)

  • 18:25:32 Retweeted @ForecasterEnten 14:44:30 Speaking of early polls, an LA Times poll out this week in 1999 had George W. Bush leading Al Gore 57% to 39%.
  • 23:17:53 Retweeted @ahmed 23:16:42 Saudi King Abdullah dead: royal court statement read on state television
  • 23:29:44 Retweeted @jamietarabay 23:27:21 A 90 year old dead king, a 79 year old new king and a 69 year old new crown prince. Saudi Arabia in a nutshell.