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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Stuff Like That

On Curmudgeon’s Corner this week, Sam and Ivan dive into the latest developments in the Trumpcare saga, the revelation of the second Trump/Putin meeting, and Trump’s revealing interview with the New York Times. Rounding out the show, shorter discussions of wearing different sorts of glasses, John McCain’s diagnosis, odd happenings in Florida, and some factoids from Wiki of the Day.

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2017-07-20
Length this week – 2:15:16

  • (0:00:58-0:38:59) But First
    • Agenda
    • Glasses
    • John McCain
    • Beep update
    • Mensch correction
    • Florida tag
    • WotD factoids
  • (0:39:38-1:12:56) Healthcare
    • Feedback
    • Several rounds
    • The conservative case
    • Entitlement ratchet
    • Deal making
    • Bipartisan approach
    • Odds for Trumpcare
    • Obamacare crash and burn
    • Logic of repeal only
  • (1:13:32-1:38:47) Trump and Putin
    • Trump on Russian winters
    • 1st Trump/Putin meeting
    • 2nd Trump/Putin meeting
    • Perceptions
    • Expanding Don Jr meeting
    • 7 circles of Trump
    • Too stupid to know?
    • Quid pro quo?
  • (1:40:07-2:14:57) Trump Interview
    • Trump on Sessions
    • Staffing agencies
    • Christie’s cellphone
    • Why aren’t more people quitting?
    • Trump on Mueller
    • Manafort finances
    • Trump on other people

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The Big RNC Show

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan do a Republican National Convention mega show, talking about each night of the convention in detail. But a lot of other things happened this week, so before even starting on the convention they cover Nice and Munich and Syria and Baton Rouge and Miami and Turkey and Roger Ailes and the VP announcements and more. It was a very very busy news week. To top it off, Sam also interviews an actual attendee at the convention. It is a big show. Over three and a half hours this time. Our longest ever. Enjoy!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-07-23

Length this week – 3:40:00

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:06:55) Introduction
    • Big News Week
    • Election Graphs vs Curmudgeon’s Corner
  • (0:07:58-0:32:56) Everything Else Part 1
    • Nice Attack
    • Munich Attack
    • Alex Interlude
    • US Drone Strike in Syria
    • Baton Rogue Police Killing
    • North Miami Shooting
  • (0:33:09-0:52:39) Everything Else Part 2
    • Ivan’s Staplers
    • Attempted Coup in Turkey
    • Roger Ailes
  • (0:53:24-1:22:06) Everything Else Part 3
    • Mike Pence VP Rollout
    • Republican Rules Committee
    • Trump and Russia
    • Leaked DNC docs
    • Tim Kaine VP Announcement
  • (1:22:44-1:41:22) Republican National Convention Day 1
    • Expectations
    • Rules Vote
    • Minor Speakers
    • Melania Speech
  • (1:42:25-1:57:07) Republican National Convention Day 2
    • Official Roll Call Vote
    • Giuliani Speech
    • Christie Mock Trial
    • Duck Song
    • Don Jr Speech
  • (1:57:55-2:21:15) Republican National Convention Day 3
    • Cruz Speech
    • Pence Speech
    • Trump NYT Interview
  • (2:21:54-2:56:01) Republican National Convention Day 4
    • Ivanka Speech
    • Trump Speech
    • Trump vs Clinton
  • (2:57:09-3:35:50) Interview with Marcus the RNC Alternate
    • Self-Introduction
    • Political Origins
    • Primary Support
    • Unification
    • Electability
    • Demographics
    • NeverTrump efforts
    • Convention Experience
    • Protests
    • Final thoughts
  • (3:37:10-3:39:40) Wrap up

Note: Timestamps are accurate, but many audio players are not very precise on the timestamps they show, especially when scanning forwards and backwards, so depending on your player, if you scan to a specific time, you may not get exactly what is shown above and may have to scan back or forward a bit to get what is expected.

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Cheese in the Microphone

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan start with a rant about Daylight Saving Time, then they talk about third parties, Brazil, Syria, Seaworld and the Supreme Court before diving into Election 2016 and all the craziness there. Oh, and Sam’s 6 year old son Alex keeps interrupting this week, so there is that fun too!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-03-18

Length this week – 1:46:20

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:07:54) But first
    • Agenda
    • Saving Time
    • Fire?
  •  (0:08:59-0:28:25) But second
    • New Snack? / Broken hand?
    • Why alone?
    • Feedback / Third Parties
    • ALeXMXeLA.com
  • (0:29:04-0:46:01) Mini Lightning Round
    • Cutting the cheese
    • Brazil Scandal
    • Russians withdraw from Syria
    • Seaworld Orcas
  • (0:47:05-0:59:32) SCOTUS
    • Certifiable Moderate
    • Wall Breaking Down Already
    • No hearings, unless Hillary
    • Troll moves, crying
  • (1:00:47-1:46:00) Election 2016
    • Cheese in the Microphone
    • March 15th results
    • Uncommitted Delegates
    • Rubio’s Delegates
    • Delegate Corruption
    • Trump encouraging riots?
    • Convention Shenanigans
    • Alex Clearing the shelves
    • Carson and Christie
    • Clinton still winning
    • Obama vs Trump

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Something Made A Noise

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Ivan and Sam start off talking about things OTHER than Election 2016. The upcoming small iPhone announcement, corporate reorgs, Kanye and The Pirate Bay, feedback on the show, and more! But of course then it is election time. They cover the Super Tuesday results in both parties, the Republican delegate math, the possibilities of a Republican schism, and everything else surrounding the race that they can think of.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-03-03

Length this week – 1:59:20

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:10:30) But First
    • Agenda
    • Small iPhone
    • Mexico City
    • Reorgs
  • (0:11:50-0:42:03) Lightning Round
    • Carillian prelude
    • Apple wins a round
    • Malaysian Plane
    • Kanye and Pirate Bay
    • Nearby House Fire
    • North Korea
    • Syria
    • Feedback
    • Sam’s Vote?
  • (0:43:08-1:28:41) Election 2016 Part 1
    • Democratic Super Tuesday Results
    • Sanders lost, get over it
    • Carson out
    • Christie and Trump
    • Rubio attacking Trump
    • Trump’s Business Success
    • Effect of Rubio’s Attacks?
    • Trump Delegate Math
    • Forcing a contested convention?
    • Delegate Shenanagans
    • Odds of President Trump?
    • Trump’s Policy Details
    • The Mexican Wall
    • Trump and Duke/KKK
  • (1:29:44-1:59:01) Election 2016 Part 2
    • Never Trump Republicans
    • Will the Republicans Split?
    • Is Clinton more conservative than Trump?
    • Trump’s Supporter’s Motivations
    • Immigrant Debate
    • Romney Attacks
    • Trump’s Free Media
    • Buying votes not working
    • The Next Contests

Electoral College: Christie improves more against Clinton. Yes, Christie.

As I mentioned yesterday, Christie is seemingly still in the Republican race. There hadn’t been any state level polls that included him since August, but then yesterday there was one in Virginia that improved his position against Clinton. And now in today’s update we have another poll that included him, this time PPP in Pennsylvania, and once again the result is an improvement in Christie’s position vs Clinton.

chart (65)

This makes Pennsylvania a possible pickup for Christie and thus improves his “best case” scenario even further.

chart (64)

I snarked yesterday about how Christie’s best case was to lose by 70 electoral votes. Well, now his best case is to lose by 30 electoral votes.  So he actually is getting a lot closer to being in reach. Of course I also made fun of his 1.9% in the RCP average of national Republican polls… oops, it is 1.7% now.

Clinton vs Christie is still the 5th “best polled” candidate combination according to the metric I use, but I expect that will probably change before too long as we continue to get more and more polls including Trump, Carson, Fiorina and Cruz, with fewer including Christie. Not to mention more with Sanders and Biden. They all seem to have gotten more polling action lately, but not yet enough to bring them into the “top five” I talk about here. There are still significant gaps in close state polling for those candidates, but those are gradually being filled in.

To briefly illustrate why I don’t talk about all the candidate combinations here, the new polling in Pennsylvania from PPP yesterday actually resulted in all of these changes:

Those are all tweets from @ElecCollPolls. That account tweets each and every electoral college related change on ElectionGraphs.com, including each individual poll result as it is added. If you are interested in that level of detail, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter.

But be careful interpreting what you see beyond the five best polled combinations I highlight here. There is often still very sparse polling, certainly when compared with the top five, and the averages still rely quite a lot on previous general election results, so it may or may not yet be giving a good picture of where things really stand for that candidate pair. You can still get some insight of course, you just have to be careful.

Here on the blog, I concentrate on the candidate pairs with the most robust polling, and on the changes that impact the range of possible results for those candidates. These “top five” candidate pairs are really where the amount of data available is best and where I can feel the most confident drawing conclusions from the data… and even then you sometimes have to be careful reading too much into things.

After all, it is still 389.1 days until polls start to close. Things will change a lot in those days. Which is why tracking this is fun. Keep watching.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them. And like Election Graphs on Facebook!

Electoral College: Surprise! Clinton slips a bit more…

Continuing the trend, in today’s update Clinton just weakens further. Let’s just jump right into the details:

Clinton vs Bush

chart (59)

With the latest polls Bush surges to the lead in North Carolina. This has been a pretty quick move. All three polls taken since mid-September have shown a Bush lead. Before that he hadn’t managed better than a tie in North Carolina since September 2014.

This of course improves Bush’s “expected case” where he wins all the states where he leads in my poll average:

chart (60)

This brings the expected result to Clinton 293 to Bush 245. Still a 48 electoral vote loss for Bush, but that is closer than it has ever been before.

Bush also improved against Clinton in Virginia. This did not result in a category change, but it did move the tipping point further in Bush’s direction:

chart (61)

The tipping point is now 1.4% in Michigan in Clinton’s favor. So a national poll move of as little as 0.7% would flip the electoral college to Bush’s side. Bush may not be leading yet like Rubio is, but he is actually very close to that. His best case is to win by 104 electoral votes if he gets all the close states. So Bush is certainly competitive with Clinton at the moment.

Bush vs Christie

Christie? Is he still running? I thought he was just about gone. Before today’s update, nobody had bothered to include Christie in a state level poll since late August. More than a month. But CNU decided to include him in a new Virginia poll, and it improved his position in Virginia:

chart (62)

This drops Clinton’s lead against Christie in Virginia to only 2.8%, making the state once again a “swing state” that could go either way.

chart (63)

Christie’s best case, if he wins all of the close states, is now to lose by 70 electoral votes. His expected case is still to lose by 156 electoral votes. Unlike Bush, Christie is not competitive with Clinton at the moment. Things can change quickly though, so you never know! But with Christie at 1.9% in the RCP average of national Republican polls, I’m not sure if Christie will have a chance to find out.

390.1 days until the polls start to close!

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them. And like Election Graphs on Facebook!

Electoral College: Rubio takes lead in North Carolina, makes it close in Michigan

It is getting boring to keep saying “Republican getting stronger against Clinton”, but it is time for yet another update saying just that. As has been common lately, the Republican in question is Rubio, so lets look at these moves:

North Carolina

chart-89

Look at that trend! It just gets worse and worse for Clinton. Every new poll in the last few months has been worse than the poll before. And with the latest, the average flips to Rubio’s side of the line.

North Carolina was never going to be a blow out for Clinton, but it was looking for awhile that she was in a good position to pull out a narrow win. That possibility seems to be evaporating quickly.

Michigan

chart-91

There are less polls to back it up, but the move in Michigan is potentially more dramatic. In a few months  the average has gone from a strong Clinton lead, to Michigan essentially being a toss up.

Once again, not a good trend for Clinton. Michigan has not gone Republican since voting for George HW Bush in 1988. In 5 of those 6 elections the winning margin for the Democrats was over 5%. In two of them it was over 10%. A close Michigan means a Clinton in trouble.

National Overview

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Screen Shot 2015-09-30 at 14.56.56206

Screen Shot 2015-09-30 at 14.59.00497

Yes, if everybody wins the states where they are leading in my poll average, Clinton still wins… barely. But there are a HUGE number of states where it is close. In this matchup, nine states are in play and the range of possible outcomes is very wide. Right now Rubio’s best case (if he sweeps all the close states) is actually better than Clinton’s best case (if she sweeps the close states).

Clinton still has an advantage here, but just by the slimmest of margins. There is a long way to the election, but for the moment, at least in the Clinton vs Rubio matchup, this is a close race…

Other Candidates

So Rubio is doing well against Clinton, and that is the only one of the five best polled candidate combinations with a change today, but a quick look at the comparison is still useful.

chart-93

chart-94

Highlighting these two comparisons specifically because of the Rubio changes today, but similar trends show up for the other comparisons. Of the five best polled combinations, Bush and Rubio are standing out and have been dramatically improving their positions vs Clinton.  Paul, Walker and Christie… have not. At least not lately. Of course, Walker has already dropped out at this point, and Christie and Paul are on life support, with their national Real Clear Politics polling averages at 3% or less right now. So they just aren’t getting the attention… or the polling volume lately… of Bush and Rubio.

As I’ve mentioned before, other candidates are getting a lot more attention now, but they are still way behind these five in the arbitrary polling quality metric I use. They just haven’t had enough sustained polling to get a comparable picture yet. That will change if the folks like Trump and Carson and Fiorina remain viable and folks like Paul, Walker and Christie fade away. Same thing for Sanders and Biden. It just takes a bit of time to get enough good state polls to start paying serious attention to the results in an analysis like this.

405.1 days until polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: MST3King the Second Republican Debate

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam and Ivan do it again, laying down a commentary track for the second Republican debate. Yes, the whole thing. All three hours of it. We kibitz as Trump and Carson and Bush and Cruz and Rubio and all the rest argue about the issues of the day. Oh, and of course, Fiorina. Ivan’s nemesis Fiorina. Ivan always has nice things to say about her. You’ve probably seen the debate, now listen to our take!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2015-09-18

Length this week – 3:13:32

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-1:01:04) Debate Segment I
    • Intro from Sam and Ivan
    • Candidate Self-Introductions
    • Trust Trump with Red Button?
    • Outsiders vs Insiders
    • Russia / Iran / China / Syria
    • Should Kim Davis follow the law?
    • Planned Parenthood and Government Shutdowns
    • Fiorina’s Face
  • (1:02:20-1:42:06) Debate Segment II
    • Immigration
    • Fiorina/Trump Business Records
    • Tax Plans and Budgets
    • Minimum Wage
    • Political Styles
  • (1:43:13-2:16:07) Debate Segment III
    • Trump knowing Foreign Policy
    • Would Jeb be a repeat of 41 and 43 on Foreign Policy?
    • Iraq / Syria / Afghanistan
    • Supreme Court / Abortion
  • (2:16:46-2:42:24) Debate Segment IV
    • Marijuana
    • Guns
    • Social Security
    • Climate Change
    • Vaccines and Autism
  • (2:43:02-3:03:32) Debate Segment V
    • Woman on the $10 bill
    • Secret Service Codenames
    • How will the world be different after your presidency?
  • (3:04:33-3:13:12) Wrap Up
    • Sam and Ivan predict the impact of the debate

Electoral College: Rubio takes lead in Iowa, Missouri slips out of Clinton’s reach

Two sets of changes worth noting today triggered by new PPP polls in Iowa and Missouri. The streak of changes going against Clinton and in favor of the various Republicans continues. As I mentioned before, the last time one of my updates was unequivocally good news for Clinton was in May!

Iowa

chart (39)

The July Qunnipiac Poll showing Rubio with an 8% is looking kind of like an outlier, and without it we wouldn’t be quite there yet, but there has been a clear trend toward Rubio in the average going back a year. With the newest poll (plus that possible outlier) the average moves from “Weak Clinton” to “Weak Rubio”. This changes the “expected” result in this matchup:

chart (40)

The expected result is now Clinton 328 to Rubio 210, which is a 118 electoral point loss by Rubio. Now, while this is still of course a significant loss, it is significant because it beats Romney’s 126 electoral vote loss against Obama in 2012. The last time one of the five best polled candidate combinations had the Republican outperforming Romney was back in June when Bush had pulled his expected loss down to only 98 electoral votes.

chart (41)

While there has been a general drumbeat of bad news for Clinton in my updates for the last three months, this particular chart doesn’t yet show an clear and indisputable breakout move beyond the range where these candidates have been bouncing around. If you only look at the changes since June, it starts to look like a trend though, and given the movement in other metrics, it is still reasonable to interpret this as a bad trend for Clinton.

The question though will be if the Republicans can start an actual breakout move where instead of talking about how it looks like they might beat Romney, we start talking about how it looks like they might beat Clinton. We aren’t close to that yet.

One thing people have been speculating about has been if the prominence of Trump on the Republican side right now is actually harming the party overall, specifically in terms of the ability of the other candidates to compete against Clinton. So far, there is no evidence for that at all in the numbers we track here.

Missouri

When I officially launched the election tracking site and posted my first analysis for 2016 I mentioned that if you looked at the average results for the last five general elections… the data I used to “seed” the analysis before there were actual state polls… there were only SIX states where the average margin in these five elections was less than 5%. They were Nevada (Dem+2.8%), Ohio (Dem+1.7%), Florida (Dem+0.9%), Colorado (Rep+0.0%), Virginia (Rep+1.6%) and Missouri (Rep+2.8%). All of these states were polled long ago, some many times…  except Missouri. Today’s PPP poll is the first 2016 polling for Missouri that I am aware of. So finally, we get a current view of the state.

Missouri was basically on this “Close State” list because Bill Clinton won the state by 6.3% in 1996, the oldest of the five elections I used for the initial average. Since then the Republicans won by 3.3%, 7.2%, 0.1%, and 9.4%. OK, that 0.1% in 2008 was really close. And the 3.3% in 2000 wasn’t a complete blow out. But in general it seems like the trend has been redder in Missouri.

The new poll tested Clinton against 11 different Republicans.  She lost by between 7% and 15% depending on which Republican you looked at.  (They also tested Sanders against 4 Republicans with similar results.)

Bottom line, looks like 2016 is looking a lot more like 2012 or 2004 than 2008 or 2000. That is, a pretty strongly Republican state. Now, it is just one poll, but the results are strong enough that the state immediately moved from “Weak Republican” to “Strong Republican” for all five of the best polled candidate combinations. (And actually for all the rest of the combinations they polled too.)

The chart of this isn’t actually all that interesting on a state level. But Missouri no longer being a close state means that Clinton’s “best case” against all five Republicans weakens a little bit, so lets have a quick look at that graph:

chart (42)

You don’t see a lot of volatility in this chart, simply because there are a lot fewer polls of the states that make a difference here. You see a lot of polls around the tipping point, and around the states that are really close, because they give insight into if the Republicans are catching up. Given the current state of Clinton’s lead, polling of the states Republicans are generally already ahead in only gives insight into how much extra Clinton could win by if everything possible went her way, which is fundamentally less interesting.

Never the less, with Missouri’s 10 electoral votes out of play at the moment, Clinton’s best case margin drops by 20 electoral votes against all these candidates. In the case where she wins all the states she is ahead in, plus all the states where the Republican currently leads by less than 5%, she now beats Paul by 204 electoral votes. Rubio, Bush, Huckabee and Walker get beaten by a more modest 156 electoral votes. These are of course pretty good margins in today’s polarized electorate. But to get to these kinds of numbers, just about everything would have to go Clinton’s way…  which is not the trend today.

But of course, we have 454.2 days until the election. Lots can change in 454.2 days. :-)

Best Polled List

I should also mention that the “best polled” list got shuffled a bit with the latest updates.  Clinton vs Paul once again grabs the “best polled” spot and becomes the default view on election2016.abulsme.com. Meanwhile Clinton vs Christie drops to 6th place and out of the group we highlight here, replaced by Clinton vs Huckabee returning to the top five after a short absence. Clinton vs Huckabee is just barely out of the top 5, but any other candidate combinations are far behind in terms of the volume and breadth of available polling on the state level at the moment. We’re currently giving the most attention here to Clinton vs Paul, Rubio, Bush, Huckabee and Walker.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Sam and Ivan MST3K the Republican Debate!

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan throw the usual format out the window and instead give the MST3K treatment to the Republican Debate. If you don’t know what that means, what happened is we played the debate, and recorded our thoughts and reactions to it in real time. So if you didn’t watch the straight up debate already, or even if you did, listen to our commentary now! Oh yeah, and at the beginning we talked a bit about a couple of recent robberies too.

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Recorded 2015-08-07

Length this week – 2:24:50

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Download MP3 File
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Show Details:

  • Break-ins and Robberies
  • Republican Debate Segment 1
    • Intros
    • Support Nominee?
    • Electibility
    • Immigration
  • Republican Debate Segment 2
    • Immigration
    • Terror and National Security
    • Obamacare and role of Federal Government
  • Republican Debate Segment 3
    • Hillary Clinton
    • Economy, Jobs and Money
    • Iran Deal
  • Republican Debate Segment 4
    • Social Issues
  • Republican Debate Segment 5
    • Foreign Policy
  • Republican Debate Segment 6
    • God
    • Closing Statements
  • Wrap Up Analysis