This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Electoral College: Clinton slips in Michigan too

The streak continues. More bad news for Clinton. This time in Michigan.

With the addition of Michigan polls from Mitchell and EPIC-MRA, Michigan moves from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton:


This pattern, a hockey stick type movement away from Clinton and toward various Republicans, has now shown up on the charts for quite a few different states, across a wide variety of Republicans. One or two of these in isolation look like outliers, but together they look like a real movement. Over the last few months Clinton has been weakening, and weakening quickly and dramatically.

So far, none of the Republicans are leading overall, but the best cases from Rubio and Bush both now include winning, and with Michigan now on the potential list for Bush as well, he improves his best case further:


Bush’s best case, where he wins all of the states where he leads, plus all the states where Clinton is ahead by less than 5%, now is Clinton 237, Bush 301, a 64 electoral vote win for Bush. The expected case is still a 90 electoral vote loss for Bush, but he’s only a handful of close states away from a win. If the drumbeat against Clinton continues, do not be surprised if some of those states start to flip.

Clinton can’t be happy here. She is now below 50% in the Real Clear Politics national view of the Democratic nomination race, and her position in the general election has been slipping fast against the major Republican contenders. No wonder we’re getting all the Biden buzz, and people keep looking at Sanders. Right now she is showing weakness. The question is if she hits a floor, or keeps falling. And if she does keep falling, who takes advantage of it?

441.7 days until the polls start closing.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-08-24 (UTC)

  • 01:02:59 Reading – Who Won Science Fiction's Hugo Awards, and Why It Matters (Amy Wallace)
  • 14:03:02 Turning on CNBC for the first time in many years. Figuring watching them freak out will be fun. :-)
  • 14:15:42 I was wrong. CNBC boring anyway. Maybe cause it bounced back? Either way, yawn.
  • 14:34:17 Retweeted @kkondik 13:38:06 Threat of recession far more important to 2016 presidential odds than anything else that's happened the last few months
  • 21:08:17 Retweeted @ConArtCritic 16:57:21 Margin in PA 2-party vote was tighter than CO, so @abulsme the tipping point status it has w/ Rubio is none too surprising.