This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



November 2015

Electoral College: Good news and bad news for Clinton in Florida

For once this is an update with good news for Clinton! Specifically, the latest Florida poll brings the state back into reach…


Well, into reach against Bush. Bush hasn’t been having the best time of things lately. But Bush now leads Clinton by only 4.2% in our average, so we consider Florida one of those states that could go either way.

Meanwhile though, against Rubio…


With this latest poll Rubio’s lead grows to just barely over 5%, so once again we take it out of the “possible” list for Clinton.

So Clinton gains Florida as a possible pickup against Bush, but loses it agains Rubio. Is that a wash over all? Probably.

It is also worth noting though that in both of these cases the averages are very close to the 5% boundary between the actually pretty arbitrary “Weak” and “Strong” categories. It should not be surprising if the next polls just reverse today’s changes.

For the moment though:

  • Clinton’s best case vs Bush improves from winning by 98 electoral votes to winning by 156 electoral votes.
  • Clinton’s best case vs Rubio drops from winning by 126 electoral votes to only winning by 68 electoral votes.

The “expected” cases, where each candidate just wins the states they lead in the average, remain Clinton winning by 48 electoral votes against Bush, and losing by 2 electoral votes against Rubio.

369.1 days until the first polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them. And like Election Graphs on Facebook!

@abulsme tweets from 2015-11-04 (UTC)