This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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September 2016
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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Election Tracking Sites

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, we take a pause from this week’s news, and instead present interviews with three people who do independent electoral college projections based on state polls… Luis Mendez from projectiondesk.com, Darryl Holman from horsesass.org, and of course our own Sam Minter from electiongraphs.com. They each talk about how they got into this sort of analysis, what makes their sites different, and more. Enjoy!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-09-24
Length this week – 2:48:35

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-23 (UTC)

  • 03:09:06 Poll Added: SMOR w/3P in LA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 33% to Trump 49% https://t.co/XxxclLpMc4
  • 03:09:11 Full 3P results: SMOR w/3P in LA from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 33% to Trump 49% to Johnson 8%
  • 03:16:13 Poll Added: PPIC w/4P in CA from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 47% to Trump 31% https://t.co/GbxwFx7TfT
  • 03:16:18 Full 4P results: PPIC w/4P in CA from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 47% to Trump 31% to Johnson 10% to Stein 5%
  • 03:25:34 Poll Added: Fox LV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 43% https://t.co/B0hlqLOuiD
  • 03:25:39 Full 3P results: Fox LV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 43% to Johnson 8%
  • 03:27:59 Poll Added: Fox RV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 38% to Trump 39% https://t.co/negOwKCWtl
  • 03:28:04 Full 3P results: Fox RV w/3P [4] in NV from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 38% to Trump 39% to Johnson 9%
  • 03:30:53 Poll Added: Fox LV [4] in NV from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 42% to Trump 46% https://t.co/OjjAmp7oHr
  • 03:32:30 Poll Added: Fox RV [4] in NV from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 43% https://t.co/tCJ2q0TujH
  • 03:38:06 Poll Added: Fox LV w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 37% to Trump 42% https://t.co/YpdSoba72j
  • 03:38:11 Full 4P results: Fox LV w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 37% to Trump 42% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 03:40:04 Poll Added: Fox RV w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 37% to Trump 40% https://t.co/7p1ws4lbE0
  • 03:40:09 Full 4P results: Fox RV w/4P [4] in OH from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 37% to Trump 40% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 03:41:41 Poll Added: Fox LV [4] in OH from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 45% https://t.co/5UDEtCgxv4
  • 03:43:08 Poll Added: Fox RV [4] in OH from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 43% https://t.co/aGRxpKRikV
  • 04:39:56 Poll Added: Marquette RV [4] in WI from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 43% to Trump 38% https://t.co/hazyP5ivzv
  • 04:41:23 Poll Added: Marquette RV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 39% to Trump 35% https://t.co/TtWFCsdZtP
  • 04:41:28 Full 4P results: Marquette RV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 39% to Trump 35% to Johnson 12% to Stein 3%
  • 04:43:20 Poll Added: Marquette LV [4] in WI from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/AXk3HHASOv
  • 04:44:49 Poll Added: Marquette LV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% https://t.co/vxHwPt8f0M
  • 04:44:54 Full 4P results: Marquette LV w/4P [4] in WI from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 41% to Trump 38% to Johnson 11% to Stein 2%
  • 04:49:38 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in NH from 2016-09-17 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 47% to Trump 38% https://t.co/7ByBMEYwsh
  • 04:49:43 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in NH from 2016-09-17 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 47% to Trump 38% to Johnson 10% to Stein 1%
  • 04:52:50 Poll Added: Fox LV w/3P [4] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 45% https://t.co/OTxcGNPE46
  • 04:52:55 Full 3P results: Fox LV w/3P [4] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 40% to Trump 45% to Johnson 6%
  • 04:54:34 Poll Added: Fox RV w/3P [4] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 39% to Trump 43% https://t.co/MSDi6HaWHn
  • 04:54:39 Full 3P results: Fox RV w/3P [4] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 39% to Trump 43% to Johnson 8%
  • 04:56:43 Poll Added: Fox LV [4] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 42% to Trump 47% https://t.co/09p3o44BlR
  • 04:58:13 Poll Added: Fox RV [4] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 41% to Trump 46% https://t.co/8nrt2CCuoN
  • 05:41:33 Poll Added: Quinnipiac w/4P [2] in CO from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/QeC9VPv7Li
  • 05:41:38 Full 4P results: Quinnipiac w/4P [2] in CO from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 05:44:54 Poll Added: Quinnipiac [2] in CO from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 47% to Trump 47% https://t.co/RrAZV7ECAd
  • 05:47:18 Poll Added: Quinnipiac w/3P [2] in GA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 40% to Trump 47% https://t.co/PAAh0ZaeRR
  • 05:47:23 Full 3P results: Quinnipiac w/3P [2] in GA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 40% to Trump 47% to Johnson 9%
  • 05:48:47 Poll Added: Quinnipiac [2] in GA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 44% to Trump 50% https://t.co/IezEGFR0w5
  • 05:51:52 Poll Added: Quinnipiac w/4P [2] in IA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 37% to Trump 44% https://t.co/TVDmVIeFst
  • 05:51:57 Full 4P results: Quinnipiac w/4P [2] in IA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 37% to Trump 44% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 05:53:20 Poll Added: Quinnipiac [2] in IA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 44% to Trump 50% https://t.co/w7FFB5o3EC
  • 05:53:30 Clinton vs Trump state category change: IA has moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/w7FFB5o3EC
  • 06:04:14 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 358 to Trump 180 -> Clinton 352 to Trump 186 https://t.co/oXmKP4jIRs
  • 06:09:46 Poll Added: Quinnipiac w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 45% to Trump 39% https://t.co/6ZmXjkLk4f
  • 06:09:50 Full 4P results: Quinnipiac w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 45% to Trump 39% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 06:11:23 Poll Added: Quinnipiac [2] in VA from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-21 – Clinton 50% to Trump 43% https://t.co/T0pbbCZqjt
  • 06:26:47 Poll Added: Colorado Mesa [2] in CO from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 44% to Trump 35% https://t.co/50PWOnXZL0
  • 06:28:15 Poll Added: Colorado Mesa w/4P [2] in CO from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 41% to Trump 34% https://t.co/K2Ju7YGSdH
  • 06:28:20 Full 4P results: Colorado Mesa w/4P [2] in CO from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 41% to Trump 34% to Johnson 12% to Stein 3%
  • 06:48:41 Poll Added: Insights West w/4P in AZ from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 33% to Trump 37% https://t.co/gZLZ6g2Bc1
  • 06:48:46 Full 4P results: Insights West w/4P in AZ from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 33% to Trump 37% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 06:51:08 Poll Added: Insights West w/4P in CA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 57% to Trump 30% https://t.co/DyQ9QbaDSX
  • 06:51:13 Full 4P results: Insights West w/4P in CA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 57% to Trump 30% to Johnson 2% to Stein 1%
  • 06:53:49 Poll Added: Insights West w/3P in NV from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 40% to Trump 42% https://t.co/s624ez5MVP
  • 06:53:54 Full 3P results: Insights West w/3P in NV from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 40% to Trump 42% to Johnson 5%
  • 06:55:53 Poll Added: Insights West w/4P in WA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 38% to Trump 28% https://t.co/upb9wfZSBV
  • 06:55:58 Full 4P results: Insights West w/4P in WA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 38% to Trump 28% to Johnson 14% to Stein 5%
  • 07:05:49 Poll Added: DFM w/4P in WY from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-11 – Clinton 19% to Trump 54% https://t.co/Hm4LcP13kH
  • 07:05:54 Full 4P results: DFM w/4P in WY from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-11 – Clinton 19% to Trump 54% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 07:38:23 Poll Added: DFM w/4P in WY from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-11 – Clinton 19% to Trump 54% https://t.co/nnGwx2Pjnu
  • 14:43:31 Poll Added: Hendrix w/4P in AR from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 34% to Trump 55% https://t.co/NeaF7KvT5F
  • 14:43:36 Full 4P results: Hendrix w/4P in AR from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 34% to Trump 55% to Johnson 3% to Stein 0.5%
  • 14:47:50 Poll Added: Goucher w/4P in MD from 2016-09-17 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 58% to Trump 25% https://t.co/0xX0DSkiOK
  • 14:47:55 Full 4P results: Goucher w/4P in MD from 2016-09-17 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 58% to Trump 25% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 14:56:00 Ok. Finally found non-rounded numbers for the Google 50 state polls. I’ll be applying those to the 5 older weeks as I add the new week.
  • 14:59:14 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 20.82% to Trump 39.24% https://t.co/3F9F6JeDop
  • 14:59:19 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 20.82% to Trump 39.24% to Johnson 8.53%
  • 15:09:31 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 18.35% to Trump 55.11% https://t.co/0ZO0iM4X1u
  • 15:09:36 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 18.35% to Trump 55.11% to Johnson 6.82%
  • 15:14:17 Full 4P results: DFM w/4P in WY from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-11 – Clinton 19% to Trump 54% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 15:16:43 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 36.41% to Trump 35.42% https://t.co/O1wkT1fsr7
  • 15:16:48 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 36.41% to Trump 35.42% to Johnson 6.93%
  • 15:25:01 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 37.46% to Trump 32.10% https://t.co/XGPI9fx57g
  • 15:25:06 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 37.46% to Trump 32.10% to Johnson 9.91%
  • 15:47:22 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 46.39% to Trump 28.05% https://t.co/BNaqeSRulu
  • 15:47:27 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-09-14 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 46.39% to Trump 28.05% to Johnson 6.88%

@abulsme tweets from 2016-09-23 (UTC)