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16435.899 Days


I missed the exact moment this year, cause busy and thinking of other things. But just under two hours ago at 18:32 UTC (11:32 AM Pacific, 2:32 PM Eastern) I was exactly 45 years old. Just looking at the date, you would think my birthday is tomorrow. But properly taking into account leap years, the fact years are not even numbers of days, time zones, and the time and place I was born… the actual time has passed. I am 45 now.

Yay! Age!

Electoral College: Trump breaks the Romney barrier

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states and DC. Multiple times each. Notable changes in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Colorado, Wisconsin, Maine (All), and Georgia.

There have been tons of polls, including “50 state” polls from three different sources, one of which had weekly data going back four weeks that needed to be added. There were many shifts caused by this batch of polls. We’ll look at all the charts, but lets start with the headline:

The Romney Barrier

chart-273

The averages in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina all moved from Clinton to Trump. Iowa did move in the opposite direction, but it is much smaller, so the net change was dramatically toward Trump.

Before this batch of changes, the “expected” result if everybody won the states they lead was Clinton 341 to Trump 197… a 144 electoral vote win for Clinton.

With this batch of polls, the expected result is now Clinton 285 to Trump 253. This is still a Clinton win, but now by only 32 electoral votes.

From February onward this race had been stuck in the zone with Trump losing by margins between McCain’s loss (192 electoral votes) and Romney’s loss (126 electoral votes).

For the first time since February, Trump is now looking like he would do better than Romney did. Trump now matches Romney’s map, but adds Florida and Ohio. It isn’t quite enough to win, but Trump is now closer than he has ever been… and doing better than the last two Republican candidates.

Some folks were looking at Clinton’s lead in mid-August and were trumpeting the possibility of a Clinton landslide in early August. It was just looking like a solid win for Clinton back then, not a landslide, but things have actually moved in the opposite direction. A 32 electoral college win is more like a squeaker. It would only take Michigan flipping to get us to a 269 to 269 electoral college tie.

(There were also changes in the “best cases” from a lot of states moving in both directions. Trump’s best case went from winning by 68 electoral votes to winning by 66 electoral votes. Clinton’s best case went from winning by 210 electoral votes to winning by 190. So the overall range of possible outcomes reduced.)

Tipping Point

chart-274

Now, despite the expected case moving in Trump’s direction, changes in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had the net effect of… zero. Well, to be precise the tipping point changed from a 3.4% Clinton lead in Florida to a 3.4% Clinton lead in Michigan. So the state that holds the balance shifted, but the actual percentage did not.

Looking at the trends though, rather than just the change in this update, while the expected case has clearly been moving in Trumps direction the last few weeks, the tipping point has been trending toward Clinton.

What does this mean?

At a basic level it means that while Trump has made the race closer, pulling over the next few states he needs to win is getting harder.

3.4% is still close, but if Trump is at or near his ceiling, it may be a tough last 3.4% to move.

To be absolutely clear, with all of the above Clinton is still a strong favorite. Trump has made it a lot closer than it was, but he still has a lot of work to do to pull the remaining states he would need past the line to secure an electoral college victory. It isn’t impossible. It is just very hard.

Individual States

OK, with the two national summaries out of the way, time for a run down of all the states that shifted in ways that caused changes to the expected or best cases. I’ll just do a run down of all the graphs without commentary on each one. For the most part they speak for themselves. Keep an eye out for the polls that look like outliers. In some cases if new polls don’t back those up, the changes described here may reverse themselves quickly as new polls come in.

States moving from Clinton to Trump:

chart-275

chart-276

chart-277

States moving from Trump to Clinton:

chart-278

States now in play for Trump:

chart-279

States now in play for Clinton:

chart-280

States no longer in play for Trump:

chart-281

chart-282

chart-283

States no longer in play for Clinton:

chart-284

What’s Next

This batch of polls was huge, so in the time it took me to complete it, there have already been a bunch of new polls which I will be adding as soon as I can. Even if those polls don’t change anything, there will be polls soon enough that do. This is a dynamic race, and as I post this we have 54.7 days left until we start getting the actual results. Hang on tight, we’re in for a nice ride before we are done.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

[Update 07:16 UTC to add comment about outliers.]

[Updated 07:27 UTC to fix some awkward wording.]

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-09-14 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-14 (UTC)

  • 04:12:08 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in GA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.8% to Trump 40.9% https://t.co/90SsQSJU0f
  • 04:16:20 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in GA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.8% to Trump 38.6% https://t.co/RAHDzOKBDS
  • 04:17:25 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in GA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.8% to Trump 38.6% to Johnson 8.4% to Stein 3.1%
  • 04:18:46 Poll Added: Morning Consilt [2] in HI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 52.8% to Trump 26.8% https://t.co/pJjFS15xeo
  • 04:20:48 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in HI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 47.2% to Trump 23.9% https://t.co/tRS3PIKZ6b
  • 04:20:53 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in HI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 47.2% to Trump 23.9% to Johnson 9.1% to Stein 5.5%
  • 04:25:26 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in IA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.3% to Trump 40.3% https://t.co/ZI96evSUpg
  • 04:27:09 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in IA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.6% to Trump 35.5% https://t.co/jjWIPJWq7m
  • 04:27:14 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in IA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.6% to Trump 35.5% to Johnson 8.8% to Stein 4.6%
  • 04:29:30 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in ID from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 30.1% to Trump 50.0% https://t.co/Of3riGGCya
  • 04:32:01 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in ID from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.2% to Trump 46.7% https://t.co/GrXG2y7vP3
  • 04:32:06 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in ID from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.2% to Trump 46.7% to Johnson 10.6% to Stein 3.5%
  • 13:42:50 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in IL from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 49.5% to Trump 32.6% https://t.co/s7DU9j4svA
  • 13:44:29 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in IL from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 45.2% to Trump 29.4% https://t.co/F2JNOuYRo3
  • 13:44:34 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in IL from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 45.2% to Trump 29.4% to Johnson 8.5% to Stein 3.8%
  • 13:46:12 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in IN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 34.2% to Trump 46.0% https://t.co/ltYo9i7gR1
  • 13:48:19 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in IN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 30.9% to Trump 41.4% https://t.co/Hbm0S2XoxH
  • 13:48:24 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in IN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 30.9% to Trump 41.4% to Johnson 10.9% to Stein 3.4%
  • 13:49:48 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in KS from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 30.9% to Trump 49.2% https://t.co/7n71qxL4Nt
  • 13:52:51 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in KS from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.6% to Trump 42.8% https://t.co/DpHlbkuBHW
  • 13:52:55 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in KS from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.6% to Trump 42.8% to Johnson 14.4% to Stein 2.9%
  • 13:55:10 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in KY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.0% to Trump 46.2% https://t.co/1B1tET6lsU
  • 13:56:50 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in KY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 31.2% to Trump 42.5% https://t.co/0IsCMRBjOy
  • 13:56:55 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in KY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 31.2% to Trump 42.5% to Johnson 8.5% to Stein 3.8%
  • 13:58:19 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in LA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 31.7% to Trump 50.0% https://t.co/NO7ERWJLwv
  • 14:00:20 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in LA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 29.6% to Trump 43.4% https://t.co/1a7Q2HNmNY
  • 14:00:25 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in LA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 29.6% to Trump 43.4% to Johnson 9.7% to Stein 3.4%
  • 14:02:02 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 49.7% to Trump 31.2% https://t.co/hlz6Li5Y2x
  • 14:03:38 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.1% to Trump 28.0% https://t.co/g2XCxXuNAl
  • 14:03:43 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.1% to Trump 28.0% to Johnson 9.8% to Stein 5.0%
  • 14:05:10 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 51.7% to Trump 28.2% https://t.co/uW6T8L6wt3
  • 14:06:41 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 47.2% to Trump 26.3% https://t.co/nbnBrsTWtT
  • 14:06:46 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 47.2% to Trump 26.3% to Johnson 7.9% to Stein 3.7%
  • 14:08:18 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in ME-All from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 42.5% to Trump 38.4% https://t.co/bnYiUBRFaZ
  • 14:09:50 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in ME-All from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.8% to Trump 35.3% https://t.co/CCactIdAYr
  • 14:25:17 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 43.0% to Trump 36.8% https://t.co/JeXGmswDcI
  • 14:26:52 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 38.8% to Trump 32.4% https://t.co/v0Rk3iJHvy
  • 14:26:57 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 38.8% to Trump 32.4% to Johnson 8.4% to Stein 5.5%
  • 14:28:26 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 41.6% to Trump 37.7% https://t.co/7voW2gYycF
  • 14:30:04 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.4% to Trump 34.4% https://t.co/ppCWmMX8SG
  • 14:30:09 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.4% to Trump 34.4% to Johnson 10.0% to Stein 4.1%
  • 14:33:07 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MO from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 38.3% to Trump 43.2% https://t.co/rW8auyU6Pd
  • 14:34:39 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MO from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 32.8% to Trump 38.8% https://t.co/RDxXbFd58g
  • 14:34:44 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MO from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 32.8% to Trump 38.8% to Johnson 10.2% to Stein 4.0%
  • 14:36:16 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MS from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 34.3% to Trump 49.1% https://t.co/2GjORjlVVH
  • 14:37:49 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MS from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 31.8% to Trump 44.2% https://t.co/TSaRl85IrP
  • 14:37:54 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MS from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 31.8% to Trump 44.2% to Johnson 8.0% to Stein 2.8%
  • 14:39:30 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in MT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.4% to Trump 46.0% https://t.co/qXGdQWhHqn
  • 14:41:17 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 30.8% to Trump 42.5% https://t.co/ohCHvaWgCG
  • 14:41:22 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in MT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 30.8% to Trump 42.5% to Johnson 9.5% to Stein 4.4%
  • 14:42:51 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NC from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.8% to Trump 42.5% https://t.co/jb1GRyEz9v
  • 14:44:43 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NC from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.8% to Trump 38.5% https://t.co/OLvucaXjBP
  • 14:44:48 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NC from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.8% to Trump 38.5% to Johnson 9.1% to Stein 3.7%
  • 14:46:14 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in ND from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 33.0% to Trump 45.7% https://t.co/BoUbYQbjs8
  • 14:48:05 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in ND from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 28.0% to Trump 42.0% https://t.co/uZScJpnsbf
  • 14:48:11 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in ND from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 28.0% to Trump 42.0% to Johnson 12.4% to Stein 4.2%
  • 14:50:31 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NE-All from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.1% to Trump 44.7% https://t.co/gGgflIT04F
  • 14:52:10 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NE-All from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 29.2% to Trump 40.8% https://t.co/WBv08WVGeK
  • 16:33:49 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NH from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 41.5% to Trump 37.6% https://t.co/PNx9vVLPHj
  • 16:35:23 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.7% to Trump 34.9% https://t.co/6htcRQVgyO
  • 16:35:28 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NH from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.7% to Trump 34.9% to Johnson 10.4% to Stein 4.7%
  • 16:37:36 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NJ from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.3% to Trump 35.5% https://t.co/PLYrFWDrGb
  • 16:39:14 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NJ from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.2% to Trump 31.9% https://t.co/4pVHISh6mz
  • 16:39:19 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NJ from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.2% to Trump 31.9% to Johnson 9.0% to Stein 3.8%
  • 16:41:25 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NM from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 39.8% to Trump 42.6% https://t.co/TrG6EK3XA6
  • 16:43:30 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NM from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.9% to Trump 34.7% https://t.co/oQLvjdrcuE
  • 16:43:35 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NM from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 35.9% to Trump 34.7% to Johnson 13.7% to Stein 3.0%
  • 16:47:16 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NV from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 42.9% to Trump 39.2% https://t.co/2vDhjZCrWy
  • 16:48:53 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NV from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 38.4% to Trump 36.7% https://t.co/lEBcIGiFRY
  • 16:48:58 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NV from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 38.4% to Trump 36.7% to Johnson 8.0% to Stein 3.5%
  • 16:50:47 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in NY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 51.6% to Trump 31.8% https://t.co/jadqHEEItJ
  • 16:52:35 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 48.5% to Trump 28.6% https://t.co/dRi4lawkRF
  • 16:52:40 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in NY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 48.5% to Trump 28.6% to Johnson 6.2% to Stein 3.8%
  • 16:56:08 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in OH from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 42.7% to Trump 37.9% https://t.co/F4CTMWciTW
  • 16:58:18 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.2% to Trump 35.3% https://t.co/DxQpLyQoKz
  • 16:58:23 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in OH from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.2% to Trump 35.3% to Johnson 9.4% to Stein 3.8%
  • 17:00:18 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in OK from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 28.5% to Trump 53.8% https://t.co/sBDeWnaVwn
  • 17:01:59 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in OK from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 24.6% to Trump 48.5% https://t.co/7Q7UtQH7nc
  • 17:02:04 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in OK from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 24.6% to Trump 48.5% to Johnson 11.4% to Stein 3.0%
  • 17:03:27 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in OR from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 47.1% to Trump 35.4% https://t.co/zcSKGIoZ0Y
  • 17:07:30 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in PA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 42.4% to Trump 39.7% https://t.co/NcRqf4tJJY
  • 17:08:57 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in PA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.4% to Trump 36.5% https://t.co/BxbEJjxiOB
  • 17:09:02 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in PA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.4% to Trump 36.5% to Johnson 9.0% to Stein 3.8%
  • 17:10:26 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in RI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 50.1% to Trump 32.1% https://t.co/hgsF4xKHM7
  • 17:11:58 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in RI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 45.1% to Trump 29.8% https://t.co/2NcuGBtERD
  • 17:12:03 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in RI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 45.1% to Trump 29.8% to Johnson 7.3% to Stein 3.8%
  • 17:13:29 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in SC from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 36.6% to Trump 45.9% https://t.co/1P4fivojdj
  • 17:15:10 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in SC from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 33.2% to Trump 42.1% https://t.co/saA3rKxj40
  • 17:15:15 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in SC from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 33.2% to Trump 42.1% to Johnson 7.8% to Stein 3.6%
  • 17:16:41 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in SD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 31.3% to Trump 48.6% https://t.co/wTqIXcYHaU
  • 17:18:10 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in SD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.5% to Trump 42.9% https://t.co/RH2vDIPC70
  • 17:18:15 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in SD from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.5% to Trump 42.9% to Johnson 12.5% to Stein 4.7%
  • 17:20:43 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in TN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 32.5% to Trump 49.6% https://t.co/NZwGy3bKFM
  • 17:22:13 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in TN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 29.0% to Trump 46.9% https://t.co/KfAPmiA7Em
  • 17:22:17 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in TN from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 29.0% to Trump 46.9% to Johnson 8.2% to Stein 3.0%
  • 17:23:52 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in TX from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.2% to Trump 43.1% https://t.co/oWDuoe8pgm
  • 17:25:22 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in TX from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 32.3% to Trump 39.9% https://t.co/7jPR8728Bz
  • 17:25:27 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in TX from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 32.3% to Trump 39.9% to Johnson 9.1% to Stein 4.1%
  • 17:27:00 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in UT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 27.5% to Trump 49.7% https://t.co/KxBF5iYeYk
  • 17:28:35 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in UT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 21.5% to Trump 41.9% https://t.co/s29xXpiqAl
  • 17:28:40 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in UT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 21.5% to Trump 41.9% to Johnson 20.0% to Stein 3.4%
  • 17:30:12 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in VA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.3% to Trump 37.0% https://t.co/YKFdachpv9
  • 17:31:35 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 39.6% to Trump 34.2% https://t.co/Pzjgg3wUZh
  • 17:31:40 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in VA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 39.6% to Trump 34.2% to Johnson 9.5% to Stein 3.5%
  • 17:33:03 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in VT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 48.9% to Trump 31.5% https://t.co/t8aePyADrQ
  • 17:34:37 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in VT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.2% to Trump 28.2% https://t.co/tLwn9LJXjS
  • 17:34:42 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in VT from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.2% to Trump 28.2% to Johnson 7.4% to Stein 6.6%
  • 17:36:05 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in WA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 44.0% to Trump 36.4% https://t.co/ns12LhrkvV
  • 17:40:17 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.4% to Trump 32.3% https://t.co/rCp1tLNySe
  • 17:40:22 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WA from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 40.4% to Trump 32.3% to Johnson 8.4% to Stein 4.6%
  • 17:41:58 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in WI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 42.1% to Trump 38.1% https://t.co/4Jw1kOzivu
  • 17:43:39 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.7% to Trump 34.8% https://t.co/C5LR1WzkHk
  • 17:43:44 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WI from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 37.7% to Trump 34.8% to Johnson 9.4% to Stein 4.0%
  • 17:45:09 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in WV from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 28.6% to Trump 53.5% https://t.co/zBeuPztMVy
  • 17:47:01 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WV from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.0% to Trump 47.2% https://t.co/myCb3PRc29
  • 17:47:07 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WV from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 26.0% to Trump 47.2% to Johnson 11.4% to Stein 2.5%
  • 17:48:23 Poll Added: Morning Consult [2] in WY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 22.0% to Trump 57.4% https://t.co/veCfLGV2Wg
  • 17:49:50 Poll Added: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 19.2% to Trump 48.2% https://t.co/d4X1ZoXZq5
  • 17:49:55 Full 4P results: Morning Consult w/4P [2] in WY from 2016-08-01 to 2016-08-31 – Clinton 19.2% to Trump 48.2% to Johnson 17.0% to Stein 2.2%
  • 17:56:45 The round of data entry I started Friday is finally done. Multiple 50 state polls. Many changes of note. @ElectionGraphs blog post tonight.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-09-14 (UTC)