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Electoral College: Trump Close Enough to Smell Victory

States with new poll data added since the last update: All 50 states, DC, and the Maine congressional districts. Notable changes in Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Maine (CD2), Kansas, and the tipping point.

National Picture

Trump continues on the upswing, and at this point Clinton only leads by the very narrowest of margins. One more round of polls in his favor could easily put Trump in the lead for the first time this cycle.

With this update, we have the following changes:

  • The expected case moves from Clinton by 32 EV to Clinton by only 6 EV
  • The tipping point moves from Clinton by 3.4% in MI to Clinton by 0.8% in NM
  • Trump’s best case improves from winning by 66 EV to winning by 94 EV
  • Clinton’s best case drops from a 190 EV win to a 178 EV win

The full current summary:

screen-shot-2016-09-19-at-00-36-56579

chart-287

There is no denying this is now a razor thin race. This is close. If the election was held today, it could go either way.

Looking at the trends:

chart-285

chart-286

In both measures, Trump bottomed in mid-August and has been on a strong upswing ever since. Or is it that Clinton has been collapsing? In the end, the result is the same.

Trump is now far outside the “McCain to Romney” zone where he had been stuck. The question is if he is establishing a new normal, with many people permanently converted to his cause, or if this is an unsustainable high that will soon undergo reversion to the mean.

The race is not today. There are 51.0 days until we start getting the first real election results. A lot will happen between now and then. The first debate is now less than eight days away. Will it change anything? We shall see…

Individual States

I won’t provide individual commentary on all of these, but for those wanting to see the details on the states that changed the national summary this time around, here they are. Click through on any chart for the full detail page with individual polls listed.

Moving from Clinton to Trump:

chart-288

chart-289

chart-290

Now close enough to be in play for Trump:

chart-291

chart-292

No longer close enough to be in play for Clinton

chart-293

Another state whose movement influenced the tipping point

chart-294

Note on “50 State” polls

Since Election Graphs tries to be as inclusive as possible with polls, we are including some “50 state” polls that some other folks have decided to exclude because of various methodological concerns. Others, like 538, include these polls, but give them very low weights in their models. Because Election Graphs tries to “keep it simple” we don’t do that kind of weighting. Everything just counts and we do a straight average.

Two of these “50 state” polls are now producing weekly results, Google Consumer Surveys and Reuters/Ipsos.

Honestly there are some crazy things in there. For instance:

  • Google thinks Clinton is leading in Kansas, some weeks by a very large margin. No other pollster has seen this. Everybody else shows a significant Trump lead.
  • Google thinks Trump is only 7% behind in DC. In DC? Really? In DC Obama beat Romney by 83.6% and McCain by 85.9%. The idea that Clinton is only 7% ahead of Trump in DC is pretty much ludicrous.
  • The last few Ipsos polls have shown a Trump lead between 13% and 23% in Texas. The most favorable poll to Trump other than Ipsos has a 11% Trump lead, and most show it significantly narrower than that.
  • In general it seems to be very common for these two polls to produce results which are outliers compared to other pollsters… Sometimes they show a result far more favorable to Clinton than anyone else, sometimes far more favorable to Trump than anyone else. The direction isn’t uniform, they just sometimes seem way off the mark.
  • In many states the sample sizes are very low, and you see wide swings. For instance in West Virginia the Google poll moved from Trump +29% to Clinton +1% in one week! Yes, when you average them you get a 14% Trump lead, which is probably reasonable for West Virginia… but still!
  • There are more examples, but you get the idea. In most states, these polls give roughly the results you would expect, in line with other recent polling, but occasionally, especially in smaller states, they seem to be clear outliers.

The craziness of some of these polls leads me to sometimes question my tenets of including everything and keeping it as close to a straight average as possible. But we’re sticking with that and we will see how it does.

And even with this the general notion of this site, that even with very simple assumptions you end up with similar results to what folks with complex models get seems to be holding up. Although the exact state by state results may differ slightly, every analysis I have read has the same general conclusion right now. The race is now much much closer than it was, although Clinton retains a narrow lead.

While these polls are a bit crazy, in the competitive states there are enough other polls so the average seems to be at least somewhat resilient when outliers like these pop up. And in the non-competitive states, well, these 50 state polls may be the only data in the average, so they may screw up the margins a bit, but in the end it doesn’t change the status of the state.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-09-18 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-18 (UTC)

  • 00:03:07 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 0.9 in ME-CD2 -> Clinton by 0.7 in CO https://t.co/E5Omclm8E4
  • 00:03:07 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 279 to Trump 259 -> Clinton 273 to Trump 265 https://t.co/E5Omclm8E4
  • 00:05:42 Poll Added: Ipsos in NH from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 48.473% to Trump 38.66% https://t.co/PPxj6g6XeX
  • 00:08:04 Poll Added: Ipsos in NJ from 2016-09-02 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 48.913% to Trump 33.459% https://t.co/VeDsQhCymb
  • 00:10:37 Poll Added: Ipsos in NM from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 37.787% to Trump 43.189% https://t.co/MC8TpSrvKV
  • 00:10:50 Clinton vs Trump state category change: NM has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/MC8TpSrvKV
  • 00:27:57 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 0.7 in CO -> Clinton by 0.2 in NM https://t.co/zK35aiPZOR
  • 00:27:58 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 227 to Trump 311 -> Clinton 222 to Trump 316 https://t.co/zK35aiPZOR
  • 00:31:53 Poll Added: Ipsos in NY from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 53.443% to Trump 29.966% https://t.co/Tn5hk2rlWC
  • 00:34:13 Poll Added: Ipsos in NC from 2016-09-02 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 46.37% to Trump 43.718% https://t.co/DaE9mtVK9s
  • 00:37:10 Poll Added: Ipsos in OH from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 47.214% to Trump 43.517% https://t.co/MQidazSxEH
  • 00:40:14 Poll Added: Ipsos in OK from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 32.118% to Trump 53.181% https://t.co/7jYBnj6kA3
  • 00:42:07 Poll Added: Ipsos in OR from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 44.194% to Trump 40.953% https://t.co/dreH2Ll0dw
  • 00:44:00 Poll Added: Ipsos in PA from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 46.112% to Trump 43.81% https://t.co/oA18fTLYoF
  • 00:47:16 Poll Added: Ipsos in SC from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 43.473% to Trump 50.549% https://t.co/c1tNA0SQ1A
  • 00:47:28 Clinton vs Trump state category change: SC has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/c1tNA0SQ1A
  • 00:49:09 Poll Added: Ipsos in TN from 2016-09-02 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 26.462% to Trump 49.739% https://t.co/ghrUzXFEWz
  • 00:50:55 Poll Added: Ipsos in TX from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 28.505% to Trump 51.132% https://t.co/RGC9MEPkN2
  • 00:52:48 Poll Added: Ipsos in UT from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 28.65% to Trump 47.724% https://t.co/wzqweKxZzk
  • 00:52:58 Clinton vs Trump state category change: UT has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/wzqweKxZzk
  • 00:55:31 Poll Added: Ipsos in VA from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 47.352% to Trump 37.51% https://t.co/YHN4NqYVvF
  • 00:57:51 Poll Added: Ipsos in WA from 2016-09-02 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 46.81% to Trump 36.917% https://t.co/eHOP0OlfDl
  • 00:59:30 Poll Added: Ipsos in WV from 2016-08-26 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 38.758% to Trump 49.228% https://t.co/Xh5pt1Bhcw
  • 01:01:19 Poll Added: Ipsos in WI from 2016-09-02 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 42.891% to Trump 39.628% https://t.co/SE4itpnt7E
  • 01:08:42 Poll Added: Global Strategy in FL from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-11 – Clinton 46% to Trump 43% https://t.co/CjkoigxYGC
  • 01:15:02 Poll Added: GBA w/3P in PA from 2016-08-21 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% https://t.co/mrQa8w8Mx4
  • 01:15:07 Full 3P results: GBA w/3P in PA from 2016-08-21 to 2016-08-28 – Clinton 46% to Trump 40% to Johnson 10%
  • 01:19:32 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P in ME-All from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 41.7% to Trump 32.2% https://t.co/gPGiQcotlA
  • 01:21:05 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 41.7% to Trump 32.2% https://t.co/PjgUOzrq4W
  • 01:21:10 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 41.7% to Trump 32.2% to Johnson 9.9% to Stein 3.6%
  • 01:22:18 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-All from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 40.5% to Trump 24.4% https://t.co/CJ0YbdRojR
  • 01:23:49 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-All from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 48% to Trump 37.3% https://t.co/G6kDNsQmEz
  • 01:27:07 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P in ME-CD2 from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 37.8% to Trump 33.6% https://t.co/LgMCshERhp
  • 01:27:12 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P in ME-CD2 from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 37.8% to Trump 33.6% to Johnson 10.5% to Stein 3.0%
  • 01:27:26 Clinton vs Trump state category change: ME-CD2 has moved from Weak Clinton to Weak Trump https://t.co/LgMCshERhp
  • 01:43:00 Clinton vs Trump expected case changed: Clinton 273 to Trump 265 -> Clinton 272 to Trump 266 https://t.co/K4XWvNSLO7
  • 02:15:19 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P in ME-CD1 from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 45.2% to Trump 30.9% https://t.co/iTRciR53Rz
  • 02:15:24 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P in ME-CD1 from 2016-08-17 to 2016-08-20 – Clinton 45.2% to Trump 30.9% to Johnson 9.4% to Stein 4.1%
  • 14:56:53 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 43% to Trump 28% https://t.co/jJfonkimpP
  • 14:56:58 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 43% to Trump 28% to Johnson 8%
  • 14:59:10 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ID from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 12% to Trump 42% https://t.co/MbOQbvAskr
  • 14:59:15 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ID from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 12% to Trump 42% to Johnson 17%
  • 15:01:07 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 23% to Trump 43% https://t.co/52XNd0blM8
  • 15:01:12 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SD from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 23% to Trump 43% to Johnson 6%
  • 15:03:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in KY from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 32% to Trump 44% https://t.co/tfYJoVfwjt
  • 15:03:07 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in KY from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 32% to Trump 44% to Johnson 6%
  • 15:03:23 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KY has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/tfYJoUXUUT
  • 15:05:37 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IN from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 32% https://t.co/pNApKx1ofN
  • 15:05:42 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IN from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 32% to Johnson 11%
  • 15:08:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 42% to Trump 28% https://t.co/QWW73BS9CS
  • 15:08:07 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NM from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 42% to Trump 28% to Johnson 13%
  • 15:19:19 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 0.2 in NM -> Clinton by 0.7 in CO https://t.co/26zBYcIJLV
  • 15:26:46 Poll Added: Google w/3P in DC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 39% to Trump 32% https://t.co/yZOb7Tvrzd
  • 15:26:51 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in DC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 39% to Trump 32% to Johnson 6%
  • 15:28:36 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ND from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 26% to Trump 45% https://t.co/9AVgNVi7tg
  • 15:28:41 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ND from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 26% to Trump 45% to Johnson 9%
  • 15:30:56 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 42% to Trump 26% https://t.co/AJHYI8HX0w
  • 15:31:01 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 42% to Trump 26% to Johnson 9%
  • 15:34:05 Poll Added: Google w/3P in LA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 26% to Trump 45% https://t.co/RD8FTqGrVz
  • 15:34:10 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in LA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 26% to Trump 45% to Johnson 8%
  • 15:35:43 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 42% to Trump 30% https://t.co/PW0SP8TPxi
  • 15:35:48 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OR from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 42% to Trump 30% to Johnson 7%
  • 15:37:48 Poll Added: Google w/3P in DE from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 28% https://t.co/aglXLaWE2x
  • 15:37:53 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in DE from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 28% to Johnson 8%
  • 15:39:35 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MD from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 44% to Trump 26% https://t.co/9RaOuni5u1
  • 15:39:40 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MD from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 44% to Trump 26% to Johnson 9%
  • 15:41:38 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MO from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 33% https://t.co/yAuddHaHHC
  • 15:41:43 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MO from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 33% to Johnson 9%
  • 15:41:57 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MO has moved from Solid Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/yAuddHaHHC
  • 15:43:26 Poll Added: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 38% to Trump 30% https://t.co/qVny9xIXW2
  • 15:43:31 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in RI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 38% to Trump 30% to Johnson 6%
  • 15:45:06 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MN from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 26% https://t.co/eUQy0AcFTJ
  • 15:45:11 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MN from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 26% to Johnson 11%
  • 15:45:25 Clinton vs Trump state category change: MN has moved from Solid Clinton to Strong Clinton https://t.co/eUQy0AugLh
  • 15:47:52 Poll Added: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 36% https://t.co/scqy97m7ql
  • 15:47:57 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in PA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 36% to Johnson 9%
  • 15:50:12 Poll Added: Google w/3P in KS from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 37% to Trump 29% https://t.co/bfQkmER4Uv
  • 15:50:17 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in KS from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 37% to Trump 29% to Johnson 8%
  • 15:50:32 Clinton vs Trump state category change: KS has moved from Weak Trump to Strong Trump https://t.co/bfQkmER4Uv
  • 16:09:45 Clinton best case vs Trump has changed: Clinton 364 to Trump 174 -> Clinton 358 to Trump 180 https://t.co/1a8rKXJnsI
  • 16:28:35 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 22% to Trump 45% https://t.co/1ltHBWMFrP
  • 16:28:40 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OK from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 22% to Trump 45% to Johnson 15%
  • 16:30:25 Poll Added: Google w/3P in HI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 40% to Trump 21% https://t.co/8Iy3A5pAYJ
  • 16:30:31 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in HI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 40% to Trump 21% to Johnson 11%
  • 16:32:10 Poll Added: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 25% to Trump 33% https://t.co/bnwvro1S1I
  • 16:32:15 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in UT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 25% to Trump 33% to Johnson 9%
  • 16:34:42 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 24% to Trump 46% https://t.co/Qq41J04bko
  • 16:34:47 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NE-All from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 24% to Trump 46% to Johnson 4%
  • 16:36:19 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 40% to Trump 31% https://t.co/WGcfF2SPl1
  • 16:36:24 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NY from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 40% to Trump 31% to Johnson 5%
  • 16:38:09 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 24% to Trump 49% https://t.co/QV0lFMSayt
  • 16:38:14 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TN from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 24% to Trump 49% to Johnson 6%
  • 16:40:07 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 23% to Trump 41% https://t.co/ZSpc01XOFm
  • 16:40:12 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AK from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 23% to Trump 41% to Johnson 8%
  • 16:40:29 Clinton vs Trump state category change: AK has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/ZSpc01XOFm
  • 16:42:13 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 28% to Trump 36% https://t.co/oPi3OpD6JW
  • 16:42:18 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NV from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 28% to Trump 36% to Johnson 13%
  • 17:33:20 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 17% to Trump 58% https://t.co/G0rheOw5tb
  • 17:33:25 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WY from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 17% to Trump 58% to Johnson 15%
  • 17:34:54 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 44% to Trump 24% https://t.co/iUS377a3k5
  • 17:34:59 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 44% to Trump 24% to Johnson 11%
  • 18:00:13 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 37% to Trump 31% https://t.co/4OesKD89Cx
  • 18:00:18 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 37% to Trump 31% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:02:23 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CO from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 36% to Trump 29% https://t.co/Dguhanp9fM
  • 18:02:28 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CO from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 36% to Trump 29% to Johnson 12%
  • 18:14:46 Clinton vs Trump tipping point change: Clinton by 0.7 in CO -> Clinton by 0.8 in NM https://t.co/p2qjtc2VhB
  • 18:16:13 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 19% to Trump 57% https://t.co/Kr4htgkpyP
  • 18:16:18 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AL from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 19% to Trump 57% to Johnson 5%
  • 18:18:04 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MS from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 20% to Trump 57% https://t.co/EqzwEsj5OS
  • 18:18:09 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MS from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 20% to Trump 57% to Johnson 5%
  • 18:19:51 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 30% to Trump 35% https://t.co/YfvUh4Izbv
  • 18:19:56 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 30% to Trump 35% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:21:34 Poll Added: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 29% to Trump 40% https://t.co/FKS5bETaTp
  • 18:21:39 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in TX from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 29% to Trump 40% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:23:46 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 33% to Trump 38% https://t.co/sRv4LaMpB7
  • 18:23:51 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 33% to Trump 38% to Johnson 8%
  • 18:26:05 Poll Added: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 43% to Trump 26% https://t.co/UhhAS0q6cH
  • 18:26:10 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in CA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 43% to Trump 26% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:27:37 Poll Added: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 50% to Trump 18% https://t.co/a7QlS8oF77
  • 18:27:43 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in VT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 50% to Trump 18% to Johnson 7%
  • 18:32:39 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 35% https://t.co/TsqjUxA7Do
  • 18:32:44 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AZ from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 34% to Trump 35% to Johnson 11%
  • 18:35:18 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 35% to Trump 34% https://t.co/XoIuArNY9t
  • 18:35:23 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NH from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 35% to Trump 34% to Johnson 10%
  • 18:38:32 Poll Added: Google w/3P in FL from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 41% https://t.co/ZsHz9TJ9Iz
  • 18:38:37 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in FL from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 41% to Johnson 7%
  • 18:40:45 Poll Added: Google w/3P in IL from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 38% to Trump 29% https://t.co/sRKevX93xO
  • 18:40:50 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in IL from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 38% to Trump 29% to Johnson 8%
  • 18:43:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 35% to Trump 31% https://t.co/nRj1FuObTC
  • 18:43:09 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 35% to Trump 31% to Johnson 7%
  • 18:45:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 37% to Trump 27% https://t.co/7CjccF89YB
  • 18:45:08 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WI from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 37% to Trump 27% to Johnson 8%
  • 18:47:13 Poll Added: Google w/3P in ME-All from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 33% to Trump 28% https://t.co/lD3AUvwrtW
  • 18:47:18 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in ME-All from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 33% to Trump 28% to Johnson 8%
  • 18:49:28 Poll Added: Google w/3P in MT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 28% to Trump 35% https://t.co/bkS72uSBes
  • 18:49:33 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in MT from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 28% to Trump 35% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:51:03 Poll Added: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 36% to Trump 35% https://t.co/TEdzWTvOU6
  • 18:51:07 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in WV from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 36% to Trump 35% to Johnson 9%
  • 18:53:10 Poll Added: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 36% to Trump 34% https://t.co/499H9CVG6A
  • 18:53:15 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in NJ from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 36% to Trump 34% to Johnson 6%
  • 18:58:30 Retweeted @NHLaVa 18:57:55 @ElecCollPolls How is that even possible in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 19:00:24 .@NHLaVa Some of the Google results are really out there. Many w/crazy small samples. Some massive outliers. Makes me wish I weighted. :-) in reply to NHLaVa
  • 19:02:52 .@NHLaVa See also Clinton leading in Kansas, Trump close in DC. And others. in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 19:16:58 Retweeted @NHLaVa 19:05:49 @ElecCollPolls 30% undecided? in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 19:18:57 .@NHLaVa Undecided & Other presumably, but yup. As I said, a lot of these Google ones are odd. Note their Maine sample was only 88 people. in reply to NHLaVa
  • 19:19:17 Retweeted @ddmll 18:54:01 What? https://t.co/G9jC5sqY3N
  • 19:20:00 .@ddmll A lot of the Google results are outliers. Watch the overall averages rather than the single poll results. in reply to ddmll
  • 19:22:46 Poll Added: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 35% to Trump 35% https://t.co/Q60oyb5Zmg
  • 19:22:51 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in AR from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 35% to Trump 35% to Johnson 7%
  • 19:25:20 Poll Added: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 34% https://t.co/uySj4XtyeU
  • 19:25:25 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in OH from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 34% to Johnson 8%
  • 19:27:51 Poll Added: Google w/3P in GA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 40% https://t.co/uV1GMFNRl2
  • 19:27:56 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in GA from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 40% to Johnson 8%
  • 19:30:39 Poll Added: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 39% https://t.co/cX3Cu17U6m
  • 19:30:44 Full 3P results: Google w/3P in SC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-13 – Clinton 31% to Trump 39% to Johnson 8%
  • 19:30:59 Clinton vs Trump state category change: SC has moved from Strong Trump to Solid Trump https://t.co/vPsYV9y841
  • 19:38:55 Poll Added: Tulchin [4] in CA from 2016-08-23 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 33% to Trump 20% https://t.co/Ya0F1zTBJC
  • 19:40:10 Poll Added: Tulchin w/Lean [4] in CA from 2016-08-23 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 49% to Trump 35% https://t.co/OT37GbxMoB
  • 19:41:38 Poll Added: Tulchin w/4P [4] in CA from 2016-08-23 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 28% https://t.co/sNrzHeHcnV
  • 19:41:43 Full 4P results: Tulchin w/4P [4] in CA from 2016-08-23 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 44% to Trump 28% to Johnson 6% to Stein 3%
  • 19:43:03 Poll Added: Tulchin w/4P [4] in CA from 2016-08-23 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 52% to Trump 31% https://t.co/NCxEOvhz0A
  • 19:43:08 Full 4P results: Tulchin w/4P [4] in CA from 2016-08-23 to 2016-08-30 – Clinton 52% to Trump 31% to Johnson 7% to Stein 5%
  • 19:45:19 Retweeted @NHLaVa 19:44:48 @ElecCollPolls I was just looking at some of the methods…..odd is maybe too light a word. <symbol> in reply to ElecCollPolls
  • 19:47:00 .@NHLaVa Yup! Election Graphs tries to include everything and stay simple (so no weights), but Google makes me want to question that! :-) in reply to NHLaVa
  • 19:50:14 Poll Added: Starboard w/3P in SC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-09 – Clinton 35% to Trump 48% https://t.co/lRqFQqoqTw
  • 19:50:19 Full 3P results: Starboard w/3P in SC from 2016-09-07 to 2016-09-09 – Clinton 35% to Trump 48% to Johnson 7%
  • 20:01:57 Poll Added: Mason-Dixon w/4P in MN from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% https://t.co/9vFwj3N6Bs
  • 20:02:02 Full 4P results: Mason-Dixon w/4P in MN from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-14 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2%
  • 20:06:18 Poll Added: Sooner w/3P in OK from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 35.6% to Trump 50.9% https://t.co/FiHfXac1I6
  • 20:06:23 Full 3P results: Sooner w/3P in OK from 2016-09-13 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 35.6% to Trump 50.9% to Johnson 6%
  • 20:49:40 Poll Added: Muhlenberg [3] in PA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 46% to Trump 37% https://t.co/XXSNx5iOtX
  • 20:51:01 Poll Added: Muhlenberg w/Lean [3] in PA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 47% to Trump 38% https://t.co/JKtb2Amao8
  • 20:52:15 Poll Added: Muhlenberg w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 40% to Trump 32% https://t.co/KBOzbj04K0
  • 20:52:21 Full 4P results: Muhlenberg w/4P [3] in PA from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 40% to Trump 32% to Johnson 14% to Stein 5%
  • 21:14:39 Next up revising the UWM results in VA I added yesterday I found a more complete source.
  • 21:17:21 Poll Added: UMW All w/4P [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 37% to Trump 31% https://t.co/ugYmTtywRa
  • 21:17:27 Full 4P results: UMW All w/4P [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 37% to Trump 31% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 21:19:26 Poll Added: UMW RV w/4P [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 38% to Trump 33% https://t.co/0dL3TRBjs6
  • 21:19:31 Full 4P results: UMW RV w/4P [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 38% to Trump 33% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 21:21:12 Poll Added: UMW LV w/4P [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 40% to Trump 37% https://t.co/tnK5gf3z3P
  • 21:21:17 Full 4P results: UMW LV w/4P [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 40% to Trump 37% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 21:22:28 Poll Added: UMW All [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 46% to Trump 36% https://t.co/jh4R1aB0hL
  • 21:24:06 Poll Added: UMW RV [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 46% to Trump 38% https://t.co/C9G9HCLkPr
  • 21:25:33 Poll Added: UMW LV [6] in VA from 2016-09-06 to 2016-09-12 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% https://t.co/VFxw5NMqJI
  • 21:49:23 Note that UMW poll in Virginia also included McMullin in the 4P variants. He was at 3% in RV/LV and 4% in All.
  • 23:47:24 That’s it for this round. Polls in 50 states + DC. Notable changes in CO/NM/IA/NV/ME-CD2/KS & Tipping Point so @ElectionGraphs post later.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-09-18 (UTC)