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September 2016
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Electoral College: Maine in play again

States with new poll data added since the last update: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Maine (at large and both congressional districts), New York, North Dakota.

There was a notable change in Maine at large.

chart-295

With the latest polls, Clinton’s margin in Maine once again drops below 5%, thus we once again call it “Weak Clinton” and include the 2 electoral votes from Maine at large in Trump’s “best case”. Maine’s 1st congressional district is “Strong Clinton”, while the 2nd is Weak Trump.

Put that all together and it means that Maine could end up anywhere from Clinton getting all 4 electoral votes to Trump getting 3 and Clinton getting 1. But the current expected result is 3 Clinton 1 Trump.

With the 2 at large electoral votes once again in play, the national trend looks like this:

chart-297

Trump’s best case… where he wins everywhere he leads, plus everywhere he is behind by less than 5%… is now to win by 98 electoral votes. This is the best best case Trump has had since the beginning of March.

And of course since the last update Trump has been better off in the expected case than he ever has been before.

All in all, the Trump surge that started in late August has not peaked yet. Given the past trends in the race, the expectation is that we will see some reversion to the mean soon, with Trump weakening again and Clinton strengthening. There are some individual state polls that seem to show some tentative movement in that direction, but nothing definitive that actually flips states yet.

47.8 days until polls start to close on election night. News is coming at us fast at this point, there are multiple polls every day, and we’re only days away from the first debate.

For more information…

This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-09-21 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-09-21 (UTC)

  • 12:39:50 Retweeted @latinainter 11:56:41 @ElecCollPolls the link is broken
  • 12:40:08 .@latinainter Which link? in reply to latinainter
  • 12:42:45 Retweeted @latinainter 12:41:26 @ElecCollPolls hm… I can't find it now. I'll tag you once I find it. Thx 4 responding in reply to latinainter
  • 12:43:47 .@latinainter Thanks. If there is anything broken, give me the details and I will try to fix it… in reply to latinainter
  • 14:30:48 Poll Added: Monmouth w/4P in FL from 2016-09-16 to 2016-09-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% https://t.co/Md1e2LhGAg
  • 14:30:53 Full 4P results: Monmouth w/4P in FL from 2016-09-16 to 2016-09-19 – Clinton 46% to Trump 41% to Johnson 6% to Stein 1%
  • 14:39:13 Poll Added: St. Leo Comp w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 43.4% to Trump 39.0% https://t.co/LDYVFdC62x
  • 14:39:18 Full 4P results: St. Leo Comp w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 43.4% to Trump 39.0% to Johnson 4.2% to Stein 1.4%
  • 14:40:51 Poll Added: St. Leo LV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 44.6% to Trump 39.6% https://t.co/WXMf6F37Vn
  • 14:40:56 Full 4P results: St. Leo LV w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 44.6% to Trump 39.6% to Johnson 4.0% to Stein 1.5%
  • 14:42:44 Poll Added: St Leo Comp w/Lean w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 49.2% to Trump 42.8% https://t.co/F2tAhyKgR3
  • 14:45:02 Poll Added: St Leo LV w/Lean w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 49.4% to Trump 43.6% https://t.co/0uGlmFbdQK
  • 14:45:07 Full 4P results: St Leo LV w/Lean w/4P [4] in FL from 2016-09-10 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 49.4% to Trump 43.6% to Johnson 5.7% to Stein 1.7%
  • 14:48:21 Poll Added: Elon w/3P in NC from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 42.8% to Trump 44.2% https://t.co/el9aTNq5G7
  • 14:48:26 Full 3P results: Elon w/3P in NC from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-16 – Clinton 42.8% to Trump 44.2% to Johnson 6.0%
  • 14:52:09 Poll Added: Rasmussen w/3P in NV from 2016-09-16 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 39% to Trump 42% https://t.co/Lt5UGl7dre
  • 14:52:14 Full 3P results: Rasmussen w/3P in NV from 2016-09-16 to 2016-09-18 – Clinton 39% to Trump 42% to Johnson 11%
  • 15:00:48 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-All from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 35.9% to Trump 29.2% https://t.co/smwfINU2s5
  • 15:02:19 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-All from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 45% to Trump 39.9% https://t.co/sk0To5nuW2
  • 15:03:54 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 37.0% to Trump 36.7% https://t.co/aHOmXvWTYV
  • 15:03:59 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-All from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 37.0% to Trump 36.7% to Johnson 11.1% to Stein 4.6%
  • 15:04:15 Clinton vs Trump state category change: ME-All has moved from Strong Clinton to Weak Clinton https://t.co/aHOmXvWTYV
  • 15:14:37 Trump best case vs Clinton has changed: Clinton 222 to Trump 316 -> Clinton 220 to Trump 318 https://t.co/K552FgwM63
  • 15:19:42 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 40.6% to Trump 24.7% https://t.co/VvsmK6yX8X
  • 15:21:07 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 49% to Trump 33.3% https://t.co/vOHKrETiSv
  • 15:22:46 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 40.5% to Trump 29.8% https://t.co/KUZFKxxSAN
  • 15:22:51 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD1 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 40.5% to Trump 29.8% to Johnson 12.1% to Stein 5.2%
  • 15:28:55 Poll Added: MPRC [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 30.8% to Trump 34.1% https://t.co/0AthzOMGx1
  • 15:30:30 Poll Added: MPRC w/Lean [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 41.6% to Trump 47% https://t.co/Jga7IBj7hQ
  • 15:32:42 Poll Added: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 33.2% to Trump 44.3% https://t.co/APpwzB97ou
  • 15:32:47 Full 4P results: MPRC w/4P [3] in ME-CD2 from 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 33.2% to Trump 44.3% to Johnson 9.9% to Stein 4.1%
  • 16:29:21 Poll Added: Siena w/4P in NY from 2016-09-11 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 51% to Trump 30% https://t.co/OKQmWIjsDX
  • 16:29:26 Full 4P results: Siena w/4P in NY from 2016-09-11 to 2016-09-15 – Clinton 51% to Trump 30% to Johnson 8% to Stein 3%
  • 16:37:04 Poll Added: DFM w/4P in ND from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 32% to Trump 43% https://t.co/hWSf2Cdn6U
  • 16:37:09 Full 4P results: DFM w/4P in ND from 2016-09-12 to 2016-09-17 – Clinton 32% to Trump 43% to Johnson 8% to Stein 1%
  • 16:45:55 Poll Added: PPP w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 43% to Trump 45% https://t.co/vAqC0Ia0ir
  • 16:46:00 Full 3P results: PPP w/3P [2] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 43% to Trump 45% to Johnson 6%
  • 16:47:06 Poll Added: PPP [2] in NC from 2016-09-18 to 2016-09-20 – Clinton 47% to Trump 47% https://t.co/XQW6a7UlBL
  • 17:11:32 That’s it for today’s round. New polls in FL/NC/NV/ME-All/ME-CD1/ME-CD2/NY/ND. Notable change in ME-All so @ElectionGraphs post later.
  • 17:13:14 The end of this round JUST missed new polls from NH/WI. They will be in my next round tomorrow probably. Blog post on this round first.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-09-21 (UTC)