This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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Ernesto’s Bubble

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We’re on the very edge of the probability bubble. About a 6% chance that our (as yet still not officially sold) house in Florida will get tropical storm force winds within the next five days. It is far more likely to go much further west though. But we’ll be watching it.

1 comment to Ernesto’s Bubble

  • Abulsme

    You know, I just reread what I said about “far more likely to go further west” and realized that is of course incorrect. All the places in the dark green have about the same level of risk right now given the current state of the storm. That is in fact the exact meaning of this chart. To say otherwise is to fall prey to the “look at the center track of the prediction” fallicy, which greatly overestimates our actual level of knowledge about what the storm will do and when. And that is exactly why I link to these particular charts rather than the charts that actually show a “predicted path”.

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