This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



June 2008

Curmudgeon’s Corner: One Year Later

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Our Anniversary
  • More Car Shopping
  • Scott McClellan and his Book
  • News Media Quality (Again)
  • Resume Writing
  • The Rules Committee
  • Puerto Rican Primary
  • The Popular Vote

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Delegates after Puerto Rico

Unlike some states, Puerto Rico seems to have its act together. All 55 delegates determined by the primaries yesterday have already been allocated. The totals… 38 for Clinton, 17 for Obama. (I note Hillary does even better here than I had predicted. I though Obama would get 23 delegates, which would have been 32 for Clinton. She did better than that. She got 38. That is 69.1%. Which is a HUGE victory… but not huge enough. Clinton needed 82.3% to be on a pace to win. This huge win actually leaves her further from winning than before. Oh well.

Also in this update, Obama picks up 2 more superdelegates. So total for the day, Clinton up 38, Obama up 19.

So the new statistics:

Delegate count is: Obama 2070, Clinton 1915, Edwards 13

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.9%, Edwards 0.3%

2118 delegates are needed to win.

There are 236 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 48 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 203 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 20.3% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 22.9% before PR.)

Clinton needs 86.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 82.3% before PR.)

Two more states to go, and then we wait on the superdelegates. I expect once the voting is over, there will be a race by superdelegates to see who can put Obama over the edge.