This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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June 2008
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First Round of MT, SD Updates

As we all know, the main news since the last update is that Obama passed the magic number to clinch the nomination, absent major catastrophe between now and the convention. But there were actual primary results too.

27 of the 31 delegates from Montana and South Dakota have now been determined. So far Obama has gotten 14 of them and Clinton has gotten 13 of them. With 4 delegates left to be determined.

In the mean time though Obama also got 59… that is FIFTY NINE… superdelegate endorsements yesterday. And Clinton lost 7 superdelegates to Obama. Obama also got 7 Edwards delegates who switched over.

Net for the day: Obama up 80, Clinton up 6, Edwards down 7. Obama only needed 42 delegates to win, so there we go.

New stats:

Delegate count is: Obama 2156, Clinton 1923, Edwards 6

In percent terms that is: Obama 52.8%, Clinton 47.1%, Edwards 0.1%

2118 delegates were needed to win.

There are 149 delegates yet to be determined.

I just want to take this opportunity to say that the 149 superdelegates who have not yet declared are a bunch of spineless cowards. They all know who they liked, and they have all known for a long time. I’ve heard all the reasons for waiting, but they are all bullshit. All of these people should have declared long ago.

In any case, with Obama past the magic number, if Clinton really wanted to continue to dispute this, she would need to A) Keep fighting to try to get full representation for Florida and Michigan, and reverse the allocation the rules committee gave to Michigan and B) Start convincing a LOT of superdelegates who have declared for Obama to change their minds.

There is no way either of those two things would be successful to a large enough degree to change the results though. So if she does go on, there is no possible positive result, just mischief.

DVD: Sin City

Last weekend, right after we watched Indy in the theaters, we watched the DVD of the week. Now, I’ve been pushing really hard to make the weekly movie really a weekly movie, but after doing a theater movie immediately followed by a DVD at home, I’m thinking maybe on weekends where we actually go to the theater maybe we can skip the DVD.

Anyway, it was time for an Amy Netflix movie, but Amy’s Netflix movie was a sequel to a movie I hadn’t seen, so it was disqualified. And then she watched it on her own before movie night, so it was doubly disqualified. Any way, that meant we went with the second choice, which was Brandy’s Netflix movie, which was Sin City.

What can I say. It was odd. It was disturbing. But it was strangely compelling. I am mystified to say that I think I actually liked it. It had my attention the entire movie. In part because I felt like I had to pay close attention to understand what the hell was going on… and even then I’m not sure I actually did ever really understand. But it pulled me in and kept me.

And did I mention it was odd? It was done in a very highly-stylized comic book sort of look. Which just added to the effect. This movie wouldn’t have worked at all if it was done “normally” I think. But matching the style of the comic book… sorry… graphic novel it is based on worked very well for it I think.

Anyway, I didn’t expect to be really interested in this or like this at all, but I did. Weird. But I liked it in a curious can’t stop looking at the bizarre thing you almost stepped on in the sidewalk sort of way, not in the way you get when there was a really compelling story that resonates emotionally.

This is our Moment, This is our Time

Just watched Obama’s speech. Watched most of McCain’s earlier.

He’s going to wipe the floor with McCain. Just sayin’.

Fighting On?

She does realize that if she makes a nuisance of herself at this point the only two possible results are weakening Obama for the general election (perhaps making him lose) and destroying her own future in the Senate and the Democratic party, right? She realizes it, right? It won’t set her up for 2012 or anything. It just won’t.

Tooting Time

I’m 2 out of 2 so far in my original pre-Iowa predictions.

One more prediction to go. Will it be 3 for 3?

The Map at the Starting Line

There have been a bunch of these coming out in the last few days, but here is mine based on my Electoral College Prediction pages, which use the last five polls in each state based on pollster.com data. In this map the “Leaning” states for both candidates (with leads under 5%) are shown as “Undecided”. All states where a candidate is “weak” or “strong” in my classification (leads over 5%) are colored for their candidate.

Bottom line, the race at the moment is too close to call, with enough undecided states to easily make either candidate win depending on which way those leaning states end up going.

But we knew that already, didn’t we?

No Decisions Tonight

But maybe tomorrow…

Clinton’s Popular Vote

She’s bringing up the bogus popular vote argument (she only wins if you don’t count some caucus states). And she is going through all the reasons she (still) thinks she is the best candidate. Is she really going to keep pushing this forward? Really?

Well, now she’s talking more about issues than about herself.

I wonder just how much trouble she will make over the next few weeks.

Hopefully she will just go away. But I know that is wishful thinking.

Obama Clinches the Nomination

As the polls close in South Dakota, Obama goes over the top.

Clinton may or may not officially give up and endorse him today, but it is now finally time to press the play button on this:

(Note: If you are reading this in an RSS reader, you may need to click through to the actual post to see the widget and press play. :-) )

Just a Few Minutes

Polls start closing in less than 8 minutes.

Obama only needs 4 delegates by CNN’s count.

It is so exciting!