In the past for my posts on the blog talking about the race, I’ve included the chart or the map, but not both. From this point forward I will always include the chart, as it gives more and better information. I will also include the map whenever it changes.

Today, three states change categories, and all three move in Obama’s direction. In order of electoral college importance:

Michigan (17 ev): After being a swing state for a few weeks, Obama’s lead in Michigan once again goes over 5%, pulling the state out of “Lean Obama” and back to “Weak Obama”. Having Michigan as a swing state was bad news for Obama. Having it back in relatively safe territory again instantly puts Obama once again in a much stronger position.

Arkansas (6 ev): McCain’s lead in Arkansas drops to less than 10%, moving the state from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. It is however still quite a way from being a swing state, so the impact of this is minimal.

New Hampshire (4 ev): The usual caution applies here. The state moves from just barely on the McCain side of the line, to barely on the Obama side of the line. But New Hampshire did flip in the last five poll average, and Obama is once again ahead. The lead is still less than 5% though, so this is too close to call and still very much a swing state.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 310, Obama 228
Obama Best Case – Obama 378, McCain 160

If everybody gets their leans – 286 Obama, 252 McCain

At this point, all six lines I track peaked for McCain (or bottomed for Obama) and have now started to move in the Obama direction. The dates for these peaks:

McCain Strong States: Peaked 25 Sep 2008
McCain Strong+Weak States: Peaked 19 Sep 2008
McCain Strong+Weak+Lean States: Peaked 18 Sep 2008

Obama Strong+Weak+Lean States: Bottomed 18 Sep 2008
Obama Strong+Weak States: Bottomed 22 Sep 2008
Obama Strong States: Bottomed 16 Sep 2008

I think we can now safely say that on ALL metrics the trends are now in the Obama direction.

At least for the moment. Obviously things change quickly. State polls as of today still have not had a chance to react to the events of the last few days, which have been dramatic. So we have yet to see how the public is reacting to those events.

And of course we have a debate tonight. In most cases debates do NOT make a significant difference in presidential races… unless someone screws up horribly.

So pay careful attention to tonight’s debate and see if one or the other candidate implodes.

Four states change status today. Two move in McCain’s direction, two move in Obama’s direction. But only one of those four states is likely significant, and that one moves in Obama’s direction. The specifics, in order of electoral college influence:

Colorado (9 ev): Colorado has been one of the critical swing states. With the exception of a few days earlier this month, Colorado has always been on the Obama side of the fence, but for almost the whole election season it has been just barely on the Obama side. Today, for the first time since March, Obama’s lead in the state moves above 5%. This makes this a “Weak Obama” state rather than a “Lean Obama” state and means the state is no longer too close to call. It might be vulnerable yet to strong campaigning or major events, but at the moment it is safe to color blue.

South Carolina (8 ev): One of the states that a few months ago Obama hoped to be able to turn blue. That has now completely evaporated as McCain’s lead now moves over 10% in the last five poll average. South Carolina is now “Solid McCain”.

Iowa (7 ev): Obama consolidates his lead. The five poll average now has Obama’s lead as more than 10%, so the state moves from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”.

Maine (4 ev): Obama weakens a bit in Maine. His lead falls to less than 10%, moving the state from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. It is still a long way from transforming into a swing state though, so while this is movement away from Obama, it doesn’t really matter too much to McCain at the moment.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 327, Obama 211
Obama Best Case – Obama 378, McCain 160

If everybody gets their leans – 282 Obama, 256 McCain

All in all, today’s changes favor Obama. But we still have a wide open race with 13 swing states and 167 electoral votes which are essentially unpredictable. At the moment you do have to give Obama the advantage. But it is still a small one. It will take a few more states moving in Obama’s direction for this to actually start looking like a significant Obama lead.