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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Sitting on my Porch

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan’s main topics are the debate on Donald Trump’s “legitimacy”, the fun of the final week of the transition, and the Chelsea Manning commutation. In addition though, they discuss reviving old computers, the “wet foot, dry foot” policy, Joe Biden, an odd Presidential succession edge case, and more!

Click below to listen and subscribe!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2017-01-19
Length this week – 1:57:57

  • (0:00:10-0:20:34) But First
    • 2017
    • Agenda
    • Reviving old computers
  • (0:21:13-0:45:08) Legitimacy
    • Trump “legitimate”?
    • Comey, Dirty Tricks, Fairness
    • Voters made their choice
    • Unfollowing Trump?
    • Skipping the Inauguration?
    • Anti-Trump Protests
  • (0:45:56-1:04:56) Transition
    • Cabinet not talking to Trump
    • Cabinet incompetence
    • Cabinet Hodgepodge
    • Unstaffed positions
    • Normal policy disputes vs Crazy/Unqualified
  • (1:05:41-1:25:11) Manning
    • Why this release date?
    • Manning vs Snowden
    • Consistency on leaks?
  • (1:25:50-1:56:37) Lightning Round
    • Wet Foot Dry Foot
    • Book: 2001 (1968)
    • Old Postcard from Sam
    • Movie: Rogue One (2016)
    • Biden for President
    • Succession Edge Cases

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Just Use Bleach

With less than two weeks until the election, Curmudgeon’s Corner this week is of course fully election themed. We discuss the campaign developments of the last week, but also look at larger themes of the divisions in today’s America, what may happen after the elections, how Trump took over the Republican party, and… oh… Ivan got polled!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Show Details:

Recorded 2016-10-28
Length this week – 1:27:44

  • (0:01:37-0:49:36) Election 2016 Part 1
    • Ivan’s cold
    • Divisions in America
    • Trump’s Republican takeover
    • After the election?
    • Polls and odds
    • Does Trump know he is going to lose?
    • Ivan got polled by Gravis!
    • Polling methods
    • Voting logistics
    • Yard signs
    • Trump black support
  • (0:50:45-1:27:24) Election 2016 Part 2
    • Cooking curry
    • Things we aren’t talking about
    • Quiet campaign week
    • Clinton Foundation
    • Pence’s plane
    • Biden for Secretary of State
    • Filibusters
    • Scott Adams analysis
    • Trump in the primaries
    • Newt and Kelly
    • Flat race
    • Bill Weld for Clinton?

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music and support his GoFundMe.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The Big DNC Show

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, Sam and Ivan of course spend most of the show on the Democratic National Convention, with commentary on all the major speeches, and the inevitable comparisons to the RNC the week before. In addition to the DNC itself, they do cover this week’s terrorist attacks in Europe, the DNC email hack, where polling stands today, and Trump’s invitation to Russian hackers. Oh, and for some reason pineapples make an appearance.

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-07-29

Length this week – 2:01:56

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:32-0:08:45) Starting Up
    • Tired Ivan
    • Ivan’s bad flight
    • Pineapple
    • Agenda
  • (0:09:23-0:48:16) Everything Else
    • Terrorist Attacks
    • Trump Convention Bounce?
    • DNC Emails
    • Trump’s Russian Invite
  • (0:49:24-1:17:59) Democratic National Convention Part 1
    • Convention Comparison
    • Sanders Holdouts
    • Booker for President?
    • Michelle Obama Speech
    • Elizabeth Warren Speech
    • Bernie Sanders Speech
  • (1:18:38-1:39:54) Democratic National Convention Part 2
    • Roll Call Vote
    • Dean Scream 2
    • Bill Clinton Speech
    • Joe Biden Speech
    • Barack Obama Speech
  • (1:41:13-2:01:36) Democratic National Convention Part 3
    • Chelsea Clinton Speech
    • Hillary Clinton Speech
    • Convention Comparison Part 2

Note: Timestamps are accurate, but many audio players are not very precise on the timestamps they show, especially when scanning forwards and backwards, so depending on your player, if you scan to a specific time, you may not get exactly what is shown above and may have to scan back or forward a bit to get what is expected.

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

Curmudgeon’s Corner: A Groundswell of Begging

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner we apologize for last week’s show, then jump right in on Election 2016 analysis. We cover Biden’s exit and the results of last week’s debate, and what all that means for Clinton. Then we move on to the Republicans, talking about Trump’s staying power, how the only one close to him is Carson of all people, and how Bush is crashing and burning. With the Presidential race out of the way, we spend some time on Paul Ryan and the race for Speaker. Then finally in our lightning round we hit Back to the Future Day, iPads and iPhones, the hospital bombing in Afghanistan, book and movie reviews, and more!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2015-10-22

Length this week – 1:32:48

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:09:08) But First
    • Sounds Ivan makes
    • Allergy Meds
    • Making fun of Ivan falling asleep
    • Forced Break
    • Future Debates
    • Agenda
  • (0:10:09-0:21:49) The Democrats
    • Biden Out
    • Debate Results
    • Clinton’s Position
    • Sad for Joe
  • (0:22: 53-0:56:17) The Republicans
    • Debate Demands
    • Trump not going away
    • Trump vs Bush
    • Efforts to stop Trump
    • Trump in the general?
    • Thinning the crowd
    • The Republican Split
  • (0:56:56-1:11:18) Speaker of the House
    • Future Sam Disclaimer
    • Ryan’s Conditions
    • Ryan’s Options
    • Ryan the RINO
    • Weakened Ryan?
  • (1:12:07-1:32:28) Lightning Round
    • Back to the Future Day
    • iPad vs big iPhone
    • Car bluetooth issue
    • US hospital bombing
    • Apple Music Subscriber Numbers
    • Movie: Mud
    • Book: The Son Also Rises

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Keep flipping the thing around

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Ivan joins Sam again to complain a bit about Cleveland and last week’s conversation about Volkswagen. Then the main topics for this week: Election 2016, the Speaker of the House, and Syria. To close it off, a lightning round talking about Breaking Bad, Star Wars, iPhones, that Raccoon story that has been going around, and more!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2015-10-01

Length this week – 1:44:41

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:15-0:18:03) But First
    • Cleveland
    • Agenda
    • Ivan on Volkswagen
  • (0:18:41-0:50:33) Election 2016
    • Post Debate Republican Polls
    • Thinning the Field
    • Clinton Attitude
    • Biden Getting In?
    • Fundraising
    • Clinton Email
  • (0:51:37-1:10:48) Speaker of the House
    • Resignation
    • Republicans Divided
    • Kevin McCarthy Different?
    • Republican Agenda Hurt by Hardliners?
    • Congressional Gridlock
    • Government Shutdowns
  • (1:11:49-1:22:27) Syria
    • Russia jumping in
    • US Approaches
  • (1:23:43-1:44:21) Lightning Round
    • TV Show: Breaking Bad
    • Pope Visit
    • iOS 9
    • Ad Blockers
    • iPhones one handed
    • Movie: Return of the Jedi
    • Raccoon Story

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Until I Hit That Wall

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam and Ivan’s main topics are the tension between locked down and open computing device philosophies, the European refugee crisis, and Election 2016. In the Lightning Round we talk about social media, the Iran deal, the new Google logo, Kanye for President, Kermit and Miss Piggy, and much much more!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2015-09-03

Length this week – 1:42:54

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:13:13) But First
    • Where Sam has Lived
    • Agenda
    • Cracked Phone
    • Raleigh-Durham Airport
  • (0:13:56-0:28:06) Computing Philosophies
    • Apple hates Kevin Drum
    • Customization vs Supportability
    • Market for Both
  • (0:28:45-0:42:56) Refugees
    • Fleeing to Europe
    • Drowned Syrian Boy
    • What do you do?
  • (0:44:05-1:13:03) Election 2016
    • Mt. McKinley to Denali
    • Ben Carson Surge
    • This Week’s Trump Talk
    • Bush Advertising
    • Tribalism on Issues
    • Republican Loyalty Oath
    • Clinton falling apart?
    • Biden run?
    • Fun scenarios
  • (1:14:23-1:42:34) Lightning Round
    • Facebook Hits a Billion
    • Orkut
    • Iran Deal done
    • Friendster
    • Book: The Scarlatti Inheritance
    • MySpace
    • Kanye West 2020
    • Kermit and Miss Piggy
    • GeoCities
    • Google Logo
    • Kim Davis and Gay Marriage
    • Classmates
    • Compuserve
    • Market Update
    • Putin Workout
    • Interstitial Ads

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Four Rounds is Enough

After skipping the Lightning round last week, on this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan once again go all Lightning Round. We cover a huge range of topics, including office chairs, Sesame Street, the stock market, Donald Trump, Ashley Madison, the Galaxy Note 5, setting the temperature in buildings, Joe Biden… and lots more.

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Recorded 2015-08-27

Length this week – 1:51:21

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:21:52) Round I
    • Office Chairs
    • Sesame Street HBO Deal / Media Environment
  • (0:23:11-0:58:44) Round II
    • Stock Market / China
    • Apple Car / Car Upstarts
    • Trump Again
  • (0:59:22-1:22:26) Round III
    • Ashley Madison
    • French Terror Attack
    • Sam’s Mom’s Car
    • Jared
    • Deez Nuts
    • Galaxy Note 5 Flaw
  • (1:23:34-1:51:01) Round IV
    • Temperature in Buildings
    • Biden!!
    • Show: Psych
    • Tropical Storm Erika
    • WDBJ Shooting
    • Found Dog
    • Sam’s son getting big

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Sickness and Politics

This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam discusses his fever addled trip home from last week’s vacation, then Sam and Ivan settle in to discuss Election 2016, first the Democrats, then the Republicans. We cover everything from Larry Lessig and Al Gore, to Clinton emails, Bush on Iraq, birthright citizenship and what happens if Trump actually wins.

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Recorded 2015-08-21

Length this week – 1:30:58

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Show Details:

  • 0:00:10 – 0:24:53: But First
    • Some Walking
    • Positive Buzz
    • Sick Traveler
  • 0:25:55 – 0:54:40: Election 2016 – Democrats
    • Larry Lessig PR Stunt
    • Al Gore trial balloon
    • Clinton drops below 50%!
    • Will Joe Biden run?
    • Clinton email again
  • 0:55:25 – 1:30:39: Election 2016- Republicans
    • Paul Staffer Legal Trouble
    • Bush Foreign Policy Speech
    • Birthright citizenship / Immigration
    • Trump driving away potential Republican voters?
    • Trump vs Klum
    • Other Republicans sucking up to Trump?
    • Trump Base Expanding?
    • Scenarios where Trump wins the nomination
    • Bush money drying up?

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Hit the Green Button!!

Ivan and Sam travel to the same room in the same city to do this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, joined this week by their college buddy Chad. Along with some stories of college hijinks, the main topics were the aftermath of the first Republican debates, a discussion on Clinton’s weakening position and if it is enough for Biden to jump in, and the continuing impact of Clinton’s email issues. In the lightning round we cover a houseplant that tells you when it is thirsty, the toxic sludge spill, problems with the Olympics, Google Alphabet, and a lot more!

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Recorded 2015-08-13

Length this week – 1:27:35

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Show Details:

  • Intro
    • Hidden Pizza
    • Hampshire Fire
  • Election 2016 – Republicans
    • Debate Coverage Feedback
    • Fiorina Debate Performance
    • Post-Debate Polling
    • Narrowing Field
    • Has Trump Peaked?
    • Establishment Tricks
    • Clinton Master Plan?
  • Election 2016 – Democrats
    • Dean Scream
    • Sanders Surge
    • Will Biden run?
    • Clinton Email
  • Lightning Round
    • Movie: Empire Strikes Back
    • China Currency Devaluation
    • Sam’s Houseplant
    • Answering Machine Messages
    • EPA Toxic Sludge Spill
    • Testing Risks
    • Olympics
    • Jon Stewart
    • Jimmy Carter
    • Google Alphabet

Electoral College: New Hampshire turns (light) Red

First of all, a little bookkeeping.  With the latest batch of polls, the “five best polled candidate combinations” gets shuffled up a bit. Clinton vs Huckabee falls off the top five (bye Huck!), replaced by Clinton vs Walker. Meanwhile, Clinton vs Rubio moves into the “best polled” slot, becoming the default view on the election2016.abulsme.com site. So, for the moment, that means the candidate combinations I’ll talk about in these updates are Clinton vs Rubio, Paul, Bush, Walker and Christie. Huckabee honestly is very close behind in the #6 spot. After that though there is a pretty big gap in polling before we get to the next combinations. There may be lots of talk about Trump lately. Or of Biden or Sanders as Clinton alternatives. Or of the other ELEVEN Republican candidates. But in comparison to the combinations I mentioned earlier, state level polling involving those folks is still pretty sparse. We’ll talk about the rest of the candidates if and when there is good enough polling on them to get them into the top five. Or at least close.

OK, with that out of the way, the main news from the latest polls. Specifically, with a WMUR poll in New Hampshire added in, this happened:

chart-69

Rubio, Paul, Bush, and Walker all took the lead in New Hampshire as measured by my poll average. Just barely. But still. They are now in the lead. Christie wasn’t polled this time, but was lagging the others quite a bit anyway.

Just a few months ago, New Hampshire was looking like it was pretty reliably “Strong Clinton” against almost all Republican challengers. (The exception being Christie amusingly enough, since he is now the weakest of the bunch.) This is a pretty big move. It seems to be parallel across many candidates, so it is likely this is more a case of Clinton getting weaker than anything any Republican candidate is doing specifically.

So what does New Hampshire flipping do to the “expected” results if the election was held today?

chart-70

Well, OK, a couple bumps there at the end. Even with this though, this particular chart doesn’t show a clear trend. All the lines are bouncing around, but aren’t clearly trending in one direction or another.

But, looking more generally at my Electoral College updates, the last time I did one that was fully and unreservedly about something moving in Clinton’s direction was in May! From the end of May, through June, through July, and now into August, every update has been about Republican gains. (There were a couple Clinton gains in the mix, but there were always overshadowed by moves toward the Republicans that happened at the same time.)

Despite this, everything points to Clinton still being way ahead overall. As one example of this, even with New Hampshire, none of the five candidates on the chart above even match Romney’s performance in 2012. The best of the bunch in “expected result”, Rubio and Paul, still lose to Clinton by 130 electoral votes.

Clinton can’t be happy with the trend though. Yes, things are expected to tighten. But I’m sure she would prefer if they didn’t anyway!

We still have lots of time until the election. The first Republican debates are coming up later today. Obviously the main thing people will be watching for are how it may impact the standing of the various candidates in the Republican race, but Democrats and Independents are watching too, so don’t be surprised if there are effects on the general election matchup too.

And of course, this is just the beginning of debate season. Many more to come…

460.7 days until the first general election polls close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.