This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



February 2008

Spitting Distance

All I can say is wow. With the preliminary results rolled in from Maine and additional updates from Saturday’s contests as those were finalized… we have 50.0% Clinton, 48.8% Obama, 1.1% Edwards.

Clinton is just BARELY over 50%. 50.022% or so actually.

If Obama does anywhere near as well in the Tuesday contests as he is expected to based on recent polls, he will almost definitely push Clinton below 50%. I think he will PROBABLY actually take the delegate lead as well. I mean the total delegate lead, including superdelegates. Obama *already* has the lead in pledged delegates.

Obama is building massive momentum here. Clinton is counting on being able to come back massively in Ohio and Texas on March 4th. But if she doesn’t manage a win or two between now and then, and if she keeps not just losing, but losing by big margins… and she falls behind in delegates… whatever she is hoping for in Ohio and Texas may just fail to materialize…

Now, could she keep it close enough so it will “be decided” by the superdelegates? Yes. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be decided in her favor.

She just can’t lose everything in February and expect to come back after that. Guiliani tried that in January, and we can see how well that worked for him. She needs to pull out some strong showings in some of the next few states. And right now her odds aren’t looking good.

My prediction has always been an Obama win. I’ll stick by that. But I don’t expect Clinton to stop fighting any time soon. There will still be some significant battles left to fight I think. And who knows, she may pull out a surprise somewhere.

Oh yeah, and there were some minor adjustments in the Republican delegate totals too. McCain picked up a handful more.

3 comments to Spitting Distance

  • ivanbou

    Clintons strategy sounds like to old Giuliani one…

  • ivanbou

    I just noticed you made the same observation further down the post… Is there something in the New York water???

  • Abulsme

    I hear that is some yummy water!

    PS: A number of people are noting that Texas and Ohio together are still less delegates than will be awarded from Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Virginia, Maryland and DC. Basically, if Obama sweeps everything between Super Tuesday and the states she is “favored in” on March 4th, March 4th still won’t be enough for her to catch up. Now, she is supposedly strong in more states in March, April and May… but if February goes badly for her… things might not be all that rosy in March after all.

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