This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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March 2008
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Another Arrival

Brandy’s new laptop just got delivered by FedEx. She is dropping Amy off at school right now. It will be here when she returns in a few minutes.

Meanwhile, I still feel icky, but in a few minutes I’ll drag myself in to work. There is one meeting later today I don’t want to miss. And I don’t think I am contagious.

Yea! on the first. Bleh! on the second.

Initial TX/OH/RI/VT Delegate Results

OK, to start with, these delegate results come in SLOWLY. So todays update is by no means the final result from yesterday’s voting. On the Republican side there were 256 delegates at stake yesterday… we have the results for only 183 of them… 71%. On the Democratic side the count is even slower. Of 370 delegates at stake, we have the results for 169. That’s 46%. The results will presumably continue to be finalized over the next few days. In the mean time, despite what you may hear, we don’t actually know yet what really happened yesterday.

OK, the charts as of now…

We’ve gone from Obama 51.5%, Clinton 47.5%, Edwards 1.0% to Obama 51.1%, Clinton 48.0%, Edwards 0.9%. Clinton narrows the gap in percentage terms from 4.1% to 3.0%. In terms of raw delegates yesterday she was behind by 109 delegates, today she is behind by 86… a net pick up of 23 delegates.

Obama needs 574 more delegates to win. Clinton needs 660.

Now, in a post yesterday I said to look at the percentage of delegates being earned by each candidate to see which candidate was “on pace” to win. Of the delegates from yesterday allocated so far, Clinton grabbed 56.8%. To be on a pace to win, she needed to be over 55%. Which means, if every delegate still available (including both pledged and super) breaks at the same percentage she got with the delegates in this update, then she’d get the magic number and win the nomination. I’ll repeat again, given just the delegates allocated since yesterday, Clinton *IS* on a pace to win the nomination.

Of course, looking at which delegates are still “missing” from the counts, the expectation is that as those results come in, Obama will win more and reopen the delegate gap. Estimates I have heard seem to indicate that when everything is counted, rather than narrowing the gap by 23, the gap will be where it was yesterday, plus or minus five delegates or so. But we shall see. Nothing to do other than wait for the final results to keep coming in over the next few days. At that point we’ll have a better picture of what is really going on. What you see right now is looking at partial results, with only 26 out of 193 of Texas delegates accounted for. And given how Texas allocates delegates, between the caucuses and the weighting of precincts, a popular vote win for Clinton does NOT necessarily mean a delegate win.

You’d think that in this day and age we could have instant results, but we don’t. This will take a little while to settle.

And of course we have more voting this coming Saturday and Tuesday. Results from yesterday may or may not be final by then.

And the Republicans… John McCain did indeed go over the magic number. Absent death, disability, or a major scandal that causes him to step down, McCain is the nominee.

More importantly, Huckabee is now only 4 delegates away from catching Mitt Romney for second place. There are still a bunch of delegates to be allocated in Texas and Ohio… so he may well still do it!

They are Home

Brandy and Amy are home again. It is a good thing.

Texas Primary for Clinton

CNN just called the Texas Primary for Clinton.

Delegates from the various primaries still being counted. Texas Caucus still being counted.

At this point it is also clear that the media is buying the whole “the math and delegates don’t matter, she’s a winner!” narrative.

I’ll wait until morning to do delegate count updates, because at this point they are still very much in flux.

Sam is a Swing Voter

Watched McCain’s speech earlier. Am watching Clinton’s speech now.

This has solidified one thing in my mind.

McCain is a reasonable moderate Republican and a honorable man. Clinton represents all the worst tendencies of American politics. McCain will do many things that I think are horrible. So would Clinton. (So would Obama for that matter.) I don’t agree with any of them on policy matters. The difference for me is not about policy, it is about character.

My pick is Obama.

But if Clinton somehow manages to somehow stick this through until the convention and then somehow pulls out a win… something which I still think is highly unlikely… then she will have definitely converted my vote from a “D” to an “R”.

Hillary Clinton will never, ever, get my vote.

I am one of those voters for which the Democratic choice of nominee will directly effect my general election vote. How many of us are there? Are there more who lean in my direction than the opposite direction (meaning an Obama win would convert them to Republican)? I don’t know. But it is a real and important dynamic.

Clinton Wins Ohio

CNN just called Ohio for Clinton. But there is absolutely no word yet on the delegate counts, which is of course what actually matters. Her margin (at the moment) looks pretty good. So she’ll probably pick up a few delegates here. The question is how many.

McCain Almost Official

CNN is projecting he will get enough delegates tonight to officially have more than 50% of the delegates to the Republican convention. Poor Huckabee.

Home, But Less Fun

Well, I did get home in time for the first results (Obama won Vermont), but that is not the actual reason I am home early. It is that Brandy and Amy will be back in a few hours, and I need to get the house back in some semblance of order before I head to the airport. Not that many hours left. Their flight is currently over northwest Indiana. Looks like they may be just coming out of some nasty weather. I’m sure that was fun for them.

But… and this is where the less fun for me comes in… Plan was originally to come home one or two hours from now (and just catch the election returns on my phone until then) and then clean up and such while watching the returns come in. But in the last few hours I’ve started to feel unwell. I think I have a slight fever, although I can’t get the thermometer I found to work, and my head is getting all swimmy, and I’ve got a few other random symptoms that just suddenly started making me unhappy a few hours ago and are getting worse by the hour. Bleh. Bleh. Bleh. So once I finished my last meeting, I just headed home.

I just took some Tylenol. Hopefully it will be enough to make me feel somewhat functional. Right now I just feel like lying down.

Bleh.