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March 2008
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Electoral College: McCain strengthens in Virginia

New Poll in Virginia. It moves my “last 5 poll average” such that Virginia goes from “Leaning McCain” to “Weak McCain”. This means we now only have 13 states and 154 electoral votes in the “up for grabs” leaning categories as Virginia is now more solidly in the McCain camp.

If everybody gets their leaning states, and Obama gets DC, then McCain would win 283 to 255.

But allowing for the full possible swing of the leaning votes… and generously thinking that DC could go either way since we have no polls (even though we all know DC will go Dem) this gives us:

McCain best case: McCain 330, Obama 208
Obama best case: Obama 362, McCain 176

Hillary Continues to Fall Further Behind

Obama and Clinton pick up one pledged delegate each from the finalization of delegate counts. (CNN’s Delegate Page does not make it clear which states these 2 delegates are from.) In addition Obama picks up two more superdelegates. Net result, Obama further expands his lead by 2 delegates.

The day before Clinton’s “big wins in Ohio and Texas” Obama was ahead by 102 delegates. Obama is now ahead by 139.

Oops.

Right now Clinton needs 58.6% of the remaining 918 delegates to win. Obama only needs 43.5% of them.

She will close the delegate gap somewhat in Pennsylvania. But it is unclear if she will actually be able to win by a big enough margin to be on the 58.6% pace she needs to actually win. If she gets less than 58.6% of the delegates in PA, then after PA she’ll actually have a harder road to the nomination than before, not an easier one.

When you are behind, running faster is not good enough. You have to run fast enough to catch up.

(Let alone running slower, which is of course what she has done so far.)

Cousin It Comes to Visit