This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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March 2008
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Earlier Tonight

I’ll probably be in bed by 9:30 UTC. Better than last night when it was about 11 UTC. But it is still a long way from the 7 UTC… or even 6 UTC… that I should be heading to bed. Bleh.

Two days ago I only had 2 hours of sleep. Yesterday I had a conference call at 16 UTC and had 3.5 hours of sleep. Today I have a meeting at 15:30 UTC. To make that I need to be up at 14 UTC. So I’m looking at 4.5 hours of sleep tonight.

That’s better, right? The trend is going in the right direction at least… Woo!

But it is nowhere near enough. Something tells me I’m going to sleep all day Saturday.

Electoral College: PA Flips Again, McCain Retakes Lead

Something tells me this race is going to flip back and forth a lot. A few more polls were posted at pollster.com for several states. This once again included adding some polls retroactively in a few places.

In any case, there were two states that changed status. Iowa moved from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama”. But the one that mattered was that Pennsylvania moved from “Weak Obama” (where it hadn’t been very long) back to “Weak McCain”. Truth is Pennsylvania at the moment is pretty much tied, so it is easy for it to flip back and forth with a new poll.

Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes are enough to change the lead again. We’re now at 273 electoral votes for McCain (just over the 270 needed to win), 262 electoral votes for Obama, and 3 electoral votes where there are still no polls.

In any case, with the polls where they are right now, the electoral college is just about as close to tied as you can get.

This is going to be a fun election.

Of course, all of this is still assuming a McCain vs Obama matchup. If this process wasn’t so cumbersome, I’d keep track of Clinton vs McCain simultaneously. But as is, I’ll keep up what I am doing. If it starts looking like Clinton has a realistic chance of catching Obama (something which is NOT the case right now) then I might start looking at those charts too (or instead).

But for now… it is looking like a very close McCain vs Obama race. I will do the extra lines on the chart I promised soon, but as a quick peek, the states where the candidate that is ahead is ahead by less than a 5% margin are:

  • Texas (34 ev)
  • Pennsylvania (21 ev)
  • Ohio (20 ev)
  • Michigan (17 ev)
  • New Jersey (15 ev)
  • Virginia (13 ev)
  • Minnesota (11 ev)
  • Missouri (11 ev)
  • Wisconsin (10 ev)
  • South Carolina (8 ev)
  • Nebraska (5 ev)
  • New Mexico (5 ev)
  • New Hampshire (4 ev)
  • North Dakota (3 ev)
  • South Dakota (3 ev)

The basic point of the above is WOW. That is a HUGE number of states and a lot of electoral votes where the polls are basically saying the state is completely up for grabs. And yes, it is still quite a long time until November, but still… this race is COMPLETELY wide open.

Up a few, Down a few (Delegates)

A few small changes today. Obama gets two more delegates from Mississippi. Clinton gets three more from Mississippi. Obama picks up one more superdelegate. Clinton loses one superdelegate… that would be Spitzer. Oops.

Net gain of three delegates for Obama and two for Clinton.