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July 2008
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Electoral College: Montana weakens for McCain

The bounce continues. Surely at some point things will start heading back in McCain’s direction, right?

In any case, a new poll in Montanta. We’ve had very few polls in Montana. This is only the third since November 5th, 2007 (one year before the election). This one moves the state from “Weak McCain” to “Lean McCain”. (Obama is actually ahead in the newest poll, but McCain keeps the lean on the strength of the two older polls.) This effectively makes Montana a swing state. Of course, Montana is only 3 electoral votes, so it only has a small effect on Obama’s best case number. But little states do add up. Oh, and it looks big on the map. :-)

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 303, Obama 235
Obama Best Case – Obama 381, McCain 157

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232