McCain’s lead in South Dakota drops to less than 10%, so the state moves from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. It is only 3 electoral votes, and it is still a long way from McCain actually losing the lead, but still… the trends are still moving against McCain. One would assume that at some point this Obama “bounce” has to peak, but it doesn’t seem to have happened yet.

The summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 277, Obama 261
Obama Best Case – Obama 362, McCain 176

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232