This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



July 2012

@abulsme Updates from 2012-07-15 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: And Thus It Ends

Charts from the 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page. The first chart is the % of delegates the candidate has collected, the second is the number of delegates. These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

And so, yesterday, on July 14th, Nebraska had their state convention. Nebraska ends up 32 Romney, 2 Paul, 1 TBD.

And with that, the last major scheduled event on the 2012 Primary calendar comes to a close.

We end up with: 1531 Romney, 257 Santorum, 156 Paul, 142 Gingrich, 1 Bachmann… and 199 TBD.

Of course at some point those 199 TBD’s have to make up their minds and vote for somebody at the convention (or abstain). And in all likelihood many of the non-Romney’s will end up voting for Romney after all. Or the convention may just have a motion to declare Romney the winner by acclimation and we may never get a full vote count. In previous years though, in the final roll call vote, the winner has gotten much more than their totals at the end of the primary season would indicate, and everybody else has gotten less.

Not to mention, to be officially nominated at the convention, you need to have won at least five state contests. So a quick look at that total:

  • Romney – 41 contests (Most Places) plus 2 ties (Alaska, Mississipi)
  • Santorum – 3 contests (Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma) plus 2 ties (Alaska, Mississipi)
  • Paul – 3 contests (Iowa, Maine, Minnesota)
  • Gingrich – 2 contests (Georgia, South Carolina)

In Montana and Pennsylvania uncommitted delegates are in the plurality.

There is also Louisiana, where there is a lawsuit between the Romney and Paul people that leaves the final delegate winner still undetermined.

(These add up to more than 50 due to DC, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, etc.)

In any case, unless there are defections in those two tied states that let Santorum claim them, it looks like Romney is the only one eligible to even be nominated.

There may be additional delegate changes on the margin, but I believe this is the last “event” prior to the convention.

So there we are. I’ll update after the convention if an official final delegate vote count is released.

Edit 2012 Jul 16 16:52: It has been pointed out in several places that technically speaking that unlike the actual vote for the presidential nominee, the votes for the “plurality” needed to nominate are not bound in any state. So therefore even in states where Paul does not have a plurality of the delegates, if a plurality of the delegation wishes to put Paul in nomination they could. This is perhaps most relevant in the cases where the delegate count is bound by primary results, but Paul managed to get his supporters elected to the actual delegate slots. In these cases, those delegates might give their state a plurality in favor of nominating Paul, but then those delegates would still be required to vote for Romney when the actual vote for the nominee came up. This seems like it is unlikely to actually happen unless the Romney folks decide it is in their best interest to let it happen. Also mentioned frequently, is that there is no binding at all on the nominations or voting for Vice President. So, if Paul’s folks wanted to make a show of it and cause trouble, they could nominate Paul for VP, regardless of Romney’s stated preference for that spot, then force a vote on it. Romney’s choice would then win of course, but we’d have a little drama first.