- 01:10:41 Retweeted @ElectionGraphs 01:10:28 [Blog Post] Electoral College: Georgia Red Again (Barely) https://t.co/acl5PxmPNM
On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner most of the show is of course on Election 2016… some talk about the Clinton foundation and lots and lots of discussion of all the twists and turns in Trump world this week. But hey, almost half the show is actually on other things! We talk about those swimmers getting in trouble in Brazil, about Iran and Syria, about self-driving cars, about Obamacare, and even about adjustable beds! Also, a short remembrance of John McLaughlin and what he meant to this show. Enjoy! Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!
Length this week – 2:12:32
Show Details:
The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch. Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link) Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link) Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link) Please buy his music! States with new poll data since the last update: Georgia, Nevada For the first time this month, we have a categorization change that goes in Trump’s direction. This time it is in Georgia:
With new polling, two of the three results showing a Clinton lead in Georgia roll off the average, replaced by results showing Trump ahead. The average in the state moves to a 0.4% Trump lead. This is an incredibly narrow lead. Georgia really could go either way. But for the moment, Georgia is once again on the more familiar red side of the center line.
With this, the “expected” result, where each candidate just wins all the states they are ahead in, returns to Clinton 347 to Trump 191, a 156 electoral vote win for Clinton. Still clearly in the zone where Trump does better than McCain (192 electoral vote loss) but worse than Romney (126 electoral vote loss). Does this indicate Trump has bottomed and is now on the rebound? Well… Georgia is a state that has looked close for months. The polls bounce around quite a bit. A move from a 0.8% Clinton lead to a 0.4% Trump lead may not be super significant. It may flip back with the very next poll. So as usual, use caution in interpreting a move like this. If it is followed up by more good news for Trump, then we can start talking about a Trump rebound. For now, that is still premature. 81.1 days left until the polls start to close. Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.
In honor of Curmudgeon’s Corner (the current events podcast Ivan and I do) hitting 100 downloads in a week for the first time a few weeks ago, I upgraded my podcasting setup. I’d gotten a new microphone back in February, and gotten the pop filter for Father’s Day, but I have now added a studio arm and shock mount. Works better than having the microphone on a stand on the desk for multiple reasons. The setup is starting to look almost professional. :-) Of course, in real life 100 downloads a week is still tiny tiny. But a year ago a normal week was 20-30 downloads, and two years ago normal was only 10-15 downloads. So hitting 100 was a nice milestone for us. It is good to be growing, even if we are still small!
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