This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon

Categories

Calendar

November 2025
S M T W T F S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30  

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-05-20 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-05-20 (UTC)

@abulsme tweets from 2016-05-20 (UTC)

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Interviews with Republicans

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast we do something different. Sam interviews Bruce, Michael, Matt, and Kelly… all people who participated in this year’s Republican primary process. He gets their thoughts on this year’s field, the candidates they supported, and what they think about things now that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee. New perspectives beyond what we usually hear from Sam and Ivan!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20151125bw
Recorded 2016-05-19

Length this week – 2:32:03

1-Click Subscribe in iTunes
View Podcast in iTunes
View Raw Podcast Feed
Download MP3 File
Follow the podcast on Facebook

Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:04:13) Introduction
  • (0:04:52-0:38:21) Bruce from Washington (33.5 minutes)
  • (0:39:24-1:18:28) Michael from Pennsylvania (39.1 minutes)
  • (1:19:08-1:42:30) Matt from Illinois (23.4 minutes)
  • (1:43:34-2:24:01) Kelly from Pennsylvania (40.5 minutes)
  • (2:25:09-2:31:44) Conclusion

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-05-19 (UTC)

  • 03:33:48 Poll Added: WBUR in NH from 2016-05-12 to 2016-05-15 – Clinton 44% to Trump 42% https://t.co/O5QULiFnuD
  • 03:40:49 Poll Added: WBUR in NH from 2016-05-12 to 2016-05-15 – Sanders 54% to Trump 38% https://t.co/s17mSwM6rH
  • 03:42:19 Poll Added: WBUR in NH from 2016-05-12 to 2016-05-15 – Clinton 37% to Trump 33% to Romney 21% – Logged but not on site
  • 03:48:02 Poll Added: PPP in AZ from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-15 – Clinton 38% to Trump 40% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2% – Logged but not on site
  • 03:50:31 Poll Added: PPP in AZ from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-15 – Clinton 41% to Trump 45% https://t.co/gE1ON3O0pZ
  • 03:53:44 Poll Added: PPP in AZ from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-15 – Sanders 42% to Trump 39% to Johnson 6% to Stein 2% – Logged but not on site
  • 03:56:01 Poll Added: PPP in AZ from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-15 – Sanders 45% to Trump 44% https://t.co/MqFPZ2hW6L
  • 03:56:08 Sanders vs Trump state category change: AZ has moved from Weak Trump to Weak Sanders https://t.co/MqFPZ2hW6L
  • 04:01:44 Sanders vs Trump expected case changed: Sanders 309 to Trump 229 -> Sanders 320 to Trump 218 https://t.co/am0NeLu9pF
  • 04:14:47 Poll Added: PPP in NM from 2016-05-13 to 2016-05-14 – Clinton 41% to Trump 33% to Johnson 14% – Logged but not on site
  • 04:24:14 Poll Added: OpinionSavvy in GA from 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-15 – Clinton 40.9% to Trump 44.1% https://t.co/4ebncNUsOk
  • 06:30:44 New 2 way polls added today in NH/AZ/GA, plus 3/4 way polls noted in AZ/NM, but no changes that trigger a post on @ElectionGraphs this time.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-05-19 (UTC)

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-05-18 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-05-18 (UTC)

  • 17:05:29 Blog posts on the results from yesterday’s primary contests in both parties are now up at @ElectionGraphs.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-05-18 (UTC)

Republicans: Trump continues his march to 1237

With the final results all but inevitable, these updates will be somewhat mechanical absent something unexpected happening.

After Nebraska and West Virginia, Trump needed 22.57% of the remaining delegates to win.

In Oregon, Trump got 19 delegates, while Kasich picked up 5 and Cruz picked up 4, even though neither of them are actively running any more.

In other changes since Nebraska and West Virginia due to uncommitted delegate preference changes in Guam, finalization of the West Virginia results taking into account geographic restrictions, and an update from New York, there was a net change of Trump +6, Kasich +2, Cruz -1

So total change since Nebraska and West Virginia: Trump +25, Kasich +7, Cruz +3

So Trump actually got 71.43% of the delegates since Nebraska and West Virginia.

So while he didn’t completely sweep the delegates this week, he is still far ahead of the target pace he needs to get to 1237.

Updated graphs:

chart-143

New delegate totals: Trump 1167, Cruz 574, Rubio 168, Kasich 163, Carson 7, Bush 4, Fiorina 1, Huckabee 1, Paul 1.

There are 386 delegates left. Trump needs 70 of them.

chart-144

Trump now needs 18.13% of the remaining delegates to win.

Update 2016-05-22 16:12 UTC – Oregon update: Cruz +1, Kasich -1.

Update 2016-05-25 14:30 UTC – Virgin Islands update: Trump +7, Cruz -1, Rubio -2.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added.