Electoral College: New Hampshire Swings, McCain Weakens in Mississippi

Obama’s lead in New Hampshire based on the last 5 polls in the state slips to less than 5%, bringing the state from “Weak Obama” to “Lean Obama”… and making New Hampshire once again a swing state. A five point lead is nothing. If the right things hit in a news cycle, a five point lead can evaporate in days, faster than polls can track it. So New Hampshire is very much in play for McCain once again.

Now, New Hampshire is small. Only four electoral votes. But this is important because this is the first time since May 2nd… almost 3 months ago… that a “Weak Obama” state has slipped back into the leaning swing state category. (Interestingly enough, it was New Hampshire back then too.)

So for the first time in quite a long time, McCain starts to improve his “best case” scenario where he gets every one of the swing states. Is this an indicator that Obama’s long bounce is finally over, and things will start tightening again as we head into the last three months of the campaign? Or is this just a soon to be reversed blip? We’ll see over the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, Obama gains ground as McCain’s lead falls under 10%, moving the state from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain”. Still a long way from being a swing state though.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 281, Obama 257
Obama Best Case – Obama 389, McCain 149

If everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 306, McCain 232

Assuming each candidate wins each of their Strong and Weak states (and Obama gets DC)… Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Colorado are still MUST WIN states for McCain. He needs to get all seven to win. If Obama wins in any one of those swing states, he wins the Presidency.

PS: Will someone please do a poll in DC, so I can stop having to give the DC disclaimer. :-)