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@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-18 (UTC)

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Some Revisions from Maine

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.

A small change today.  Maine revised its preference poll numbers to add some precincts whose results got lost in a spam folder (really).  The result from this is that the delegate estimates give one less delegate to Paul, and one more to Gingrich.  So Gingrich wins the day today.

But Maine’s results will change again.  First, there are still more precincts who haven’t done their votes yet (or are doing them today).  So there may well be more straw poll Maine updates to come.

More importantly though, these are only estimates based on the straw polls, in fact, no delegates have been selected at all yet.  In fact, delegates to the state convention were selected, who in turn will select delegates to the national convention.  That won’t happen until MAY.  Estimates of what will happen in May really should be based on asking each of the delegates to the next level of the process who they intend to support.  But nobody seems to be doing that sort of things, so instead we (well, Green Papers) base estimates on the straw polls.  But the real results may be very different.  You may have someone like Paul out organizing and getting an outsized number of delegates compared to the star poll (the Paul campaign claims they are on track to do this), or, you may have the nominee being a done deal by May, and get all delegates allocated to the obvious winner, regardless of what happened in February.

Anyway, with the best estimate we have as of when I pulled the numbers a couple hours ago, today Gingrich gains a delegate and Paul loses one.

Edit 2012 Feb 18 23:10 – Minor wording change