This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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February 2012
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-26 (UTC)

  • RT @freesyria74: 100 people were killed today in #Syria by Assad's forces. This has been the daily average over last 7 days. 3000/month :( #
  • RT @rajskub: 3yr old quote of the day while trying to fix a toy computer, 'I know! we should put some butter on it!' #
  • MT @GovGaryJohnson: Gov Johnson to the @LPGeorgia conv: “I WILL CONTINUE THE RON PAUL REVOLUTION” if @RonPaul doesn't get the GOP nom. #
  • Reading – Caboose (Wikipedia) http://t.co/BtqJQkVI #
  • Reading – The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math (Nate Silver) http://t.co/OBg4n0EE #
  • Kyzyl! RT @BreakingNews: Update: 6.8-magnitude quake centered 58 miles east of Kyzyl, Russia, at depth of 33.2 miles – USGS via Reuters #
  • Reading – The myth of the eight-hour sleep (Stephanie Hegarty) http://t.co/GUTVNjDI #
  • Reading – Mitt Romney’s budget in about 150 words (Ezra Klein) http://t.co/krtztyzF #
  • RT @joshtpm: Santorum building new GOP with voters who don't want to go to college or have sex. #
  • MT @thinkprogress "I had the opptnty to read the speech & I almost threw up." Santorum on JFK speech about the separation btwn church/state #
  • RT @CenteredPols: Talking heads have called every primary “make or break” but none have been. Hint: Michigan will not be either. #
  • Reading – Santorum: Higher Education a Plot to Secularize America (Kevin Drum) http://t.co/9EveVHXP #
  • MT @UKProgressive Quote of the YEAR! "Republicans being against sex is not good. Sex is popular." GOP strtgst Alex Castellanos via MoDowd #
  • Reading – Everything is Connected (Sean Carroll) http://t.co/7ZRnB5mE #
  • Reading – Michigan Tea Partiers Share Rick Santorum’s Fears Over Obama’s College Push (Evan McMorris-Santoro) http://t.co/A1S1r1Kn #
  • RT @radleybalko: Heh. How to make hard-to-obtain Sudafed from everyday street meth. http://t.co/T3AU2ptN (PDF) (via @curiouser_georg) #
  • Reading – On the Nature of 2012 RNC Rules Changes (Josh Putnam) http://t.co/vW8FDLyh #
  • @FHQ Def calendar. Today ~11% of dels. Feb 26 2008, ~63%. (Inc caucus ests.) 63% not till Apr in 2012. More 2008 comp: http://t.co/1cLFlibt #
  • Reading – This is how far human radio broadcasts have reached into the galaxy (Emily Lakdawalla)
    http://t.co/cTm1K8Yh #
  • RT @TPMLiveWire: Romney Surpasses Santorum In National Gallup Tracking Poll http://t.co/giNd0j3m via @kyleleighton #
  • RT @wikileaks: WikiLeaks mystery press conference Monday 12 noon, Frontline Club, Paddington, London, 13 Norfolk place W2 1QJ. #
  • Reading – Studies Refute Santorum’s Claim That College Makes People Less Religious (Sahil Kapur) http://t.co/1BDLsRaX #
  • Reading – What if The Final Countdown Had Ended Differently? (John Farrier) http://t.co/yPrUyrSA #
  • Reading – Mountain Lion threatens Facebook and Microsoft (Edward Aten) http://t.co/6sEYjGJQ #
  • Reading – What Happens to the Coke in Coca-Cola? (Dan Lewis) http://t.co/rlwKABYS #

Electoral College: Easy Come, Easy Go (WA dark blue again)

Map from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.  This map reflects Obama vs Romney.  If any other candidate takes the lead in the Republican delegate race we’ll switch to making maps for them.

So on February 19th our five poll average for Washington state had Obama’s lead dip below 10%, moving them from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.  Today another poll puts Obama’s 5 poll average back over 10%, so we put the state back in the Strong Obama category.  Either way, just above or just below 10%, Washington is nowhere near being a swing state.

Since this doesn’t affect the inventory of swing states, the overall summary is the same:

Romney Obama
Romney Best Case 311 227
Current Status 210 328
Obama Best Case 170 368

And the chart over time…

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Electoral College Prediction page.  Lines represent how many more electoral votes a candidate has than is needed to tie under several different scenarios.