This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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February 2012
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@abulsme Updates from 2012-02-29 (UTC)

  • Reading – Olympia Snowe delivers stunning rebuke in decision to leave Senate (Gail Russell Chaddock) http://t.co/xzFWMZEh #
  • Reading – Ron Paul poll shocker: He beats Obama head-to-head (Peter Grier) http://t.co/ihvv5wpT #
  • RT @FHQ: And with one simple call, Romney wins the evening's delegate race. #azprimary #
  • RT @daveweigel: Mitt has now won 3 of the 4 states that have actually assigned delegates so far. (NH, AZ, FL) #MIprimary #
  • RT @dceiver: GENTLE REMINDER: The only thing worth knowing in MI is who wins what Congressional District. #
  • RT @EdEspinoza: Bad news for Romney: 24 primaries in March, 23 are proportional. Only 1 winner-take-all (Puerto Rico). http://t.co/lp1w3wps #
  • RT @daveweigel: BREAKING: Buddy Roemer in dead heat with Rick Perry for 6th place, 682-641 votes #MIprimary #
  • RT @CenteredPols: RT @daveweigel: BREAKING: In a couple of days Romney will lose a bunch of primaries to Santorum anyway. #MIprimary #
  • RT @SeanTrende: Romney could well win MI, but get fewer delegates. His vote is really heavily concentrated in the Detroit area. #
  • RT @FHQ: Delegates. Focus on the (CD) delegates. #miprimary #
  • RT @ebertchicago: Santorum asks, do we want the smart to lead us in this country? He implies the correct answer is "no." #
  • MT @DemConWatch: RT @FixAaron: Right now I've got Romney winning 7 congressional disricts, Santorum 3, 4 too close to call. #
  • RT @chucktodd: Romney won Mackinac County by 1 vote. 667 votes to Santorum's, wait for it, 666 votes. #
  • RT @chucktodd: Santorum leads in 9 of 14 MI CDs, but leads are thin in a few. Still POSSIBLE for Santorum to win majority of delegates in MI #
  • RT @wilw: BREAKING NEWS: Barack Obama wins Michigan GOP primary. #
  • @DemConWatch Flx? #
  • RT @DemConWatch: CNN: Romney 9 delegates, Santorum 7. AP: 5-5 GreenPapers : 8-8 #
  • RT @DemConWatch: CNN: Romney 9 delegates, Santorum 7. AP: 5-5 GreenPapers : 8-8, 538: 11-9, NBC 11(R)-13 (S) #
  • RT @DemConWatch: CNN: Romney 9 delegates, Santorum 7. AP: 5-5 GreenPapers : 15-13 538: 11-9, NBC 11(R)-13 (S) #
  • RT @DemConWatch: CNN: Romney 9 delegates, Santorum 7. AP: 5-5 GreenPapers : 15-13 538: 11-9, NBC 11(R)-13 (S), Fix: 15-7 #
  • MT @FHQ: Romney is only one who can get to 1144. Rest are playing losing game to keep him from getting there #
  • RT @daveweigel: Ron Paul has now won more votes in the 2012 primary than he won as the 1988 Libertarian candidate. #
  • MT @FHQ: Beat me to it, but yep. RT @slc_scott: In Wyoming, Romney won straw poll in 5 delegate-awarding counties, Santorum 4, and Paul 3 #
  • MT @FHQ: So because Romney is going to lose in places we expect him to lose next week, the odds of a contested election have increased? Huh? #

2012 Republican Delegate Count: Arizona and Michigan (Mostly)

Chart from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.

The chart above is now the chart using the “% of delegates already allocated” as the x-axis rather than the date, because I think it more clearly shows what is actually going on at this point.

Romney picks up all 29 delegates from Arizona.  As of this update the best estimates at The Green Papers gives Romney 15 delegates from Michigan, Santorum 13, and 2 delegates still too close to call.  Those of you who read my Gaming Out Arizona and Michigan post will recognize Scenario 2, which at the time I said was the most likely result, and indeed, that is what happened.  If the last outstanding congressional district ends up going for Santorum, then it will actually match Scenario 2 exactly.  Regardless though, the general outlines of Scenario 2 are met, and I’ll just quote my analysis from that earlier post:

Romney is still the only winner here.  It is clearly not as big a win [as if he had won nearly all of Michigan’s delegates through a more geographically even win], but Romney still makes his “% of remaining delegates needed to win” go DOWN, and go down to under 50%.  Santorum, despite getting some delegates, is still in a worse position than when he started the night.  Before he needed 54.1% of the remaining delegates to catch up and win the nomination, now he needs 54.9% [actually 55.0% pending disposition of those last 2 delegates].  Santorum does pull ahead of Gingrich though, and put himself clearly into second place.  But the three non-Romney’s in this situation are still all heading upward (toward being mathematically eliminated), none of them has started to actually move down toward catching up and winning.  Romney in this situation does improve a bit here, but also still isn’t breaking out downward yet.  He is still hovering in the zone where his opponents (collectively) only have to do a little bit better to block him from getting the nomination.  Note that they do have to do better though.  Paul, Gingrich and Santorum could keep getting delegates at the same rate, and Romney would still get the nomination, it would just take awhile.

Attention now moves to first Wyoming and Washington (although they are not getting much attention) and then of course Super Tuesday.  Super Tuesday is not as super as it was in 2008, but there are still a big chunk of delegates at stake, and after it is over, we should have a better view of what the rest of the race looks like, and specifically if Romney is able to break out and start closing on 1144, or if the non-Romney’s still have a real shot at blocking him from getting there.  (Let alone actually catching up and winning, which is a much further stretch.)