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Electoral College: Huckabee continues to slip (vs Clinton)

Today’s update was new PPP polling in Wisconsin. PPP polled 11 candidate combinations. Of these only one produced a notable change in one of the “5 best polled candidate pairs” I track most closely here.

Specifically, this was the second poll of Clinton vs Huckabee in Wisconsin (the last was also by PPP, back in April 2014). This poll did not cause a category change in the average, it was Strong Clinton before, and it is Strong Clinton now:

chart (14)

So with no category change, why am I bothering with a post?

Well, Wisconsin slipping further into Clinton territory (from a 6.7% Clinton lead to a 8.0% Clinton lead) reshuffled the ordering of the states when sorted by margin and Wisconsin slipped past Minnesota (where Clinton leads by 6.8%). Minnesota had been the tipping point state. So Clinton doesn’t necessarily need Minnesota any more, because it is easier to get Wisconsin. This means the tipping point shifts to 8.0% in Virginia.

chart (15)

The last time the tipping point moved even briefly in Huckabee’s direction was last August, but as you can see, the general trend has been that the more polling there is on this combination, the worse it looks for Huckabee.

Since this is an otherwise short update, a quick look at how the tipping point looks across all five “best polled” candidate combinations at the moment:

chart (16)

All of the Republicans are running way behind Clinton, but the trends are different.

Basically, we can group the five candidates (all vs Clinton) into three categories based on the last six months or so of tipping point movement:

  • Republicans gaining strength against Clinton: Bush
  • Republicans basically flat against Clinton: Paul and Ryan
  • Republicans losing ground against Clinton: Christie and Huckabee

Ryan has said he is not running of course. There is also lots of talk about Walker, and sometimes of Cruz or Rubio, or even of combinations involving Democrats other than Clinton occasionally, but polling at the state level on all of those other combinations is still significantly more sparse than the five combinations here, and therefore the data less reliable, so we leave them out for now.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post.

Edit 2015-03-16 17:44 UTC to add standard note to end.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-03-10 (UTC)

  • 03:27:16 Reading – Pioneering tech blog Gigaom shuts down after running out of money (Sam Byford)
  • 03:29:36 Reading – Girl, 9, dies after being forced to run for 3 hours; grandma charged with murder (Jay Reeves)
  • 04:43:11 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 04:35:47 .@abulsme HELLLLLL YEEEEEEEEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH in reply to abulsme
  • 04:43:28 Retweeted @AmyNotAmy 04:36:12 .@abulsme what is pocket in reply to abulsme
  • 04:50:48 .@AmyNotAmy Pocket is an app that lets you save interesting articles to read later in reply to AmyNotAmy
  • 05:02:24 Reading – Text of Joe Biden’s Statement on Senators’ Letter to Iran’s Leaders
  • 05:04:25 Retweeted @dandrezner 03:17:06 So has the open letter from hardliners in the Majlis informing Obama that Rouhani is term-limited arrived yet?
  • 05:20:31 Reading – 5 things Apple didn't say about the new MacBook (Raymond Wong)
  • 05:43:11 Retweeted @ZekeJMiller 03:36:24 Wow MT @NYDailyNews: An early look at tomorrow's front page.
  • 05:43:21 Retweeted @rebliv 03:36:35 Wow, so that little graph thingie beneath your tweets really shows you how much people don't give a f*ck about your tweets.
  • 05:44:04 Retweeted @michaelbd 03:37:55 Sorry GOP, but nothing Obama can do will be a better deal for Iran’s position in the region than the Iraq War.
  • 05:48:36 Retweeted @JeffreyGoldberg 03:42:58 I'm impressed that Tom Cotton could get 46 of his colleagues to sign a letter 10 minutes after he arrived in the Senate.
  • 05:50:16 Retweeted @Drrake 03:43:02 THE GAME HAS BEEN CHANGED
  • 06:00:47 Retweeted @RadioFreeTom 03:57:54 Aside from all the other problems with that letter, GOPers just set up the Senate to be #Iran fall guy if talks fail.
  • 07:09:34 Retweeted @Amazing_Maps 06:47:45 The median age in each country
  • 17:50:50 Retweeted @pourmecoffee 16:37:53 Hillary: "I created a private home email server to try and stop getting LinkedIn updates."

    [Everyone understands, goes home, issue over]

  • 18:33:42 This Hillary press conference will be critical in determining how this issue does or does not evolve… Who am I kidding. Won't make a diff.
  • 18:34:59 Unless of course she screws it up. One way it makes a difference is if she bungles it. Then could get much worse. No upside.
  • 18:37:23 She still has to do it tho. Can't say nothing forever. Status quo though is lines are already drawn for and against HRC. Few changing minds.
  • 18:39:29 If she bungles press conference badly though, other Dems might smell blood in the water and reconsider jumping in to primary race.
  • 18:42:38 Interesting to see if she confirms "home brew network". Reporting I saw on that so far sloppy, didn't show real evidence of that made leaps.
  • 18:47:05 She may have run the server out of her house. Just saying reporting I've seen just hadn't actually given good solid evidence of that.
  • 18:50:46 For the record, my opinion on email issue, not as big an issue as Rs are making it, bigger issue than Ds trying to make it. Not non-issue.
  • 18:56:07 On why wait so long to resp. Either, just not org enuf yet 4 quick resp or basic info on story wrong letting opponents go out on limb first.
  • 18:58:33 But story DOES play into public's worst mems of Clintons. If waiting was intentional, hoping would blow over, backfired. Kept festering.
  • 18:58:42 Here goes.
  • 19:02:21 Um… You don't need a second phone for a seperate account… But whatever.
  • 19:04:28 So far nothing new here at all. Nothing that would comfort anybody that doesn't start out trusting Hillary.
  • 19:06:09 She is not doing great here. Not self destructing either. But not good at all. Not convincing at all. Not addressing questions still open.
  • 19:08:07 Somebody needs to directly ask who actually managed email server, security, etc.
  • 19:08:52 Complete non-answer on process to determine what was relevant and what wasn't. Sounds like purely her judgement satisfied no one.
  • 19:09:35 Oh my god, why ask her to repeat what she already said. Stupid reporter. Ask something new.
  • 19:11:03 So far on an A to F scale I give this performance a C.
  • 19:12:05 The server must ACTUALLY be at her house, or she would have denied it just then.
  • 19:13:22 Glad reporter actually asked about setup. Confirmed it was on her property. Implied handled by professionals, which should be expected.
  • 19:13:58 But not offering to disclose info that would allow independent confirmation of security… Or anything.
  • 19:16:42 I think this ends up a wash. This will change no minds. Opinion will be based entirely on if you trusted her to begin with.
  • 19:17:48 She is clearly very rusty though. Getting slightly better as this goes on, but still clearly rusty.
  • 19:18:54 Choosing intentionally not to go above and beyond what was already revealed to give any info that might change minds. (Indep audits, etc.)
  • 19:20:26 Press conference done now. I'll stick with my C grade. Improved as it went on, so maybe C+.
  • 19:22:54 Nothing 2 defuse issue, nothing 2 inflame it. Not enuf 2 make other Dems smell blood. Rs will make hay on this til elec. Will make no diff.
  • 19:27:39 Bottom line: PC will change no minds. People inclined 2 give Clinton benefit of the doubt will do so, those who aren't will not. Status Quo.
  • 19:29:04 Retweeted @geoffreyvs 19:28:50 Looks poor for Clinton but outside DC ppl aren't going to give 2 shits about emails. Rs will be mad re: Benghazi but that's always been true
  • 19:30:52 Retweeted @EmilyMiller 19:27:31 When I worked at State, we had both unclassified State email and personal email on the same Blackberry.
  • 19:33:38 Retweeted @KellyO 19:26:20 Government issued blackberries typically don't permit adding a personal account. Not a technology issue but a policy one.
  • 19:43:05 Note move at this stage in HRC vs R matchups expected to move toward R just due 2 campaign actually starting. So far:
  • 20:02:11 This issue will of course become part of the long term anti-Clinton grind. Collectively it will all take a toll as it paints negative pic.
  • 20:02:49 Just not this single issue IN ISOLATION. With usual "unless something more comes out" caveat.
  • 22:30:26 One thought here, did HRC say the mail was actually on a Clinton Foundation server? It sounded like it. Does that complicate things further?
  • 22:33:03 Or just server "set up for her husband"? Is who else was on same server, had mailboxes, had access rights, etc relevant at all? Or just no?
  • 23:19:45 Reading – Turkey asks Microsoft to edit, not ban, Minecraft. Why? (Lisa Suhay)