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Electoral College: Clinton Slips a Little More in New Hampshire

Today there was yet another poll in New Hampshire, this time from WMUR, as well as one in New Jersey from Monmouth.

Today’s changes actually lead to Clinton vs Walker bumping Clinton vs Rubio off my “five best polled candidate combinations” list, at least according to my metric.

Even though Clinton vs Rubio isn’t in the top five any more, since it WAS in the top five prior to this update, I’ll briefly cover the change.

Just like Bush and Paul improved their situation in New Hampshire polling yesterday, today’s poll data boosts Rubio in New Hampshire, and Clinton’s lead falls to less than 5%.

chart-35

Notice the huge range here.  Just within the last month, polls have ranged from Clinton up by 12% to Rubio up by 5%.  That is a crazy range. I don’t feel a lot of confidence about what is really going on in New Hampshire. The average at the moment though puts New Hampshire in the “Weak Clinton” category vs Rubio, so Rubio’s best case improves:

chart-36

This doesn’t put Rubio quite as close as Bush, but still puts his best case at losing to Clinton by only 18 electoral votes. So there are a couple of the Republicans now threatening to actually make a race out of this.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post.

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