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Electoral College: Rubio takes lead in North Carolina, makes it close in Michigan

It is getting boring to keep saying “Republican getting stronger against Clinton”, but it is time for yet another update saying just that. As has been common lately, the Republican in question is Rubio, so lets look at these moves:

North Carolina

chart-89

Look at that trend! It just gets worse and worse for Clinton. Every new poll in the last few months has been worse than the poll before. And with the latest, the average flips to Rubio’s side of the line.

North Carolina was never going to be a blow out for Clinton, but it was looking for awhile that she was in a good position to pull out a narrow win. That possibility seems to be evaporating quickly.

Michigan

chart-91

There are less polls to back it up, but the move in Michigan is potentially more dramatic. In a few months  the average has gone from a strong Clinton lead, to Michigan essentially being a toss up.

Once again, not a good trend for Clinton. Michigan has not gone Republican since voting for George HW Bush in 1988. In 5 of those 6 elections the winning margin for the Democrats was over 5%. In two of them it was over 10%. A close Michigan means a Clinton in trouble.

National Overview

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Screen Shot 2015-09-30 at 14.56.56206

Screen Shot 2015-09-30 at 14.59.00497

Yes, if everybody wins the states where they are leading in my poll average, Clinton still wins… barely. But there are a HUGE number of states where it is close. In this matchup, nine states are in play and the range of possible outcomes is very wide. Right now Rubio’s best case (if he sweeps all the close states) is actually better than Clinton’s best case (if she sweeps the close states).

Clinton still has an advantage here, but just by the slimmest of margins. There is a long way to the election, but for the moment, at least in the Clinton vs Rubio matchup, this is a close race…

Other Candidates

So Rubio is doing well against Clinton, and that is the only one of the five best polled candidate combinations with a change today, but a quick look at the comparison is still useful.

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chart-94

Highlighting these two comparisons specifically because of the Rubio changes today, but similar trends show up for the other comparisons. Of the five best polled combinations, Bush and Rubio are standing out and have been dramatically improving their positions vs Clinton.  Paul, Walker and Christie… have not. At least not lately. Of course, Walker has already dropped out at this point, and Christie and Paul are on life support, with their national Real Clear Politics polling averages at 3% or less right now. So they just aren’t getting the attention… or the polling volume lately… of Bush and Rubio.

As I’ve mentioned before, other candidates are getting a lot more attention now, but they are still way behind these five in the arbitrary polling quality metric I use. They just haven’t had enough sustained polling to get a comparable picture yet. That will change if the folks like Trump and Carson and Fiorina remain viable and folks like Paul, Walker and Christie fade away. Same thing for Sanders and Biden. It just takes a bit of time to get enough good state polls to start paying serious attention to the results in an analysis like this.

405.1 days until polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Electoral College: The Drumbeat Continues, Clinton keeps slipping

Aside from that one blip of good news in August every single update I’ve posted in many months has been more bad news for Clinton. This update is no exception, with two changes worth noting, both in favor of the Republican.

Clinton vs Bush

chart-85

The new poll in North Carolina didn’t shift move the state to a new category, but the move from a Clinton lead of 2.4% down to a Clinton lead of 1.3% moved the tipping point, which had been North Carolina. With North Carolina shifting Bushward, the tipping point becomes Colorado, where Clinton is ahead by 2.2%.

chart-86

This is a relatively small blip upward for the tipping point, but it continues the trend. This race just keeps getting closer. Remember, the tipping point is how far polls have to move nation wide in order to flip the result of the election. The gap is now only 2.2%. That is tiny. A 2.2% lead can disappear over night, or be an illusion cased by a bias in the polls. Right now, Bush and Clinton are effectively neck and neck. Yes, Clinton has a lead, but it is extremely narrow.

The spectrum of the states now looks like this:

Screen Shot 2015-09-26 at 04.05.54723

Clinton’s buffer is down to just Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina, all states where her lead is less than 2.2%. We’re only a few Republican leaning polls in those three states away from having a Republican in the lead for the first time since I launched this site.

Clinton vs Walker

Well, he dropped out. But a poll in Iowa that included him wrapped up just before his announcement. And that poll was good for Walker. So, one last hurrah…

chart-87

With this last poll… and it will be surprising if there are any more with Walker… Walker takes a narrow lead vs Clinton, and so moved Iowa into his column, increasing his “expected” result against Clinton…

chart-88

He increases his expected result to… losing by 144 electoral votes! Well, OK, Walker wasn’t the most competitive of the Republican candidates against Clinton.

Goodbye Walker.

409.8 days until polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Outside the Lines

This week on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam is joined by guest cohost Bruce. Together they discuss the Volkswagen cheating debacle, the situation with Syria and Syrian refugees, and of course this week’s developments in the 2016 Presidential race. In the final lightning round they also cover the Super Moon Eclipse, the Fed’s interest rate decision, that kid who made the clock, and more!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20141121-bigheads-2
Recorded 2015-09-24

Length this week – 1:51:54

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-0:10:38) But First
    • No Ivan today, but we have Bruce
    • This Week’s Agenda
    • In House pre-School
    • School Scheduling Craziness
  • (0:11:40-0:26:02) Volkswagen Cheating
    • What they did
    • Possible Fixes
    • Impact on VW
    • What were they thinking?
  • (0:26:41-0:48:13) Syria
    • Refugee Crisis
    • Turkish Connection
    • What do you do?
    • Russian Involvement
    • Assad must go?
    • Coordination with Russia
  • (0:49:35-1:30:27) Election 2016
    • Rand Paul
    • The Xenophobic Racist Party
    • Primary and Caucus Rules
    • Carson on Muslims
    • Walker Drops Out
    • Republican Polling since the Second Debate
    • Democratic Polling
    • Deadlines for Shadow Candidates
    • Clinton Declines
    • More on Clinton Email
  • (1:31:07-1:51:34) Lightning Round
    • Super Moon Eclipse
    • Queen Elizabeth Milestone
    • Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions
    • TV Show: Best of Carson
    • Pope Visit / Chinese President Visit
    • The kid who made the clock

Curmudgeon’s Corner: MST3King the Second Republican Debate

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Sam and Ivan do it again, laying down a commentary track for the second Republican debate. Yes, the whole thing. All three hours of it. We kibitz as Trump and Carson and Bush and Cruz and Rubio and all the rest argue about the issues of the day. Oh, and of course, Fiorina. Ivan’s nemesis Fiorina. Ivan always has nice things to say about her. You’ve probably seen the debate, now listen to our take!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

CCCover20141121-bigheads-2
Recorded 2015-09-18

Length this week – 3:13:32

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:10-1:01:04) Debate Segment I
    • Intro from Sam and Ivan
    • Candidate Self-Introductions
    • Trust Trump with Red Button?
    • Outsiders vs Insiders
    • Russia / Iran / China / Syria
    • Should Kim Davis follow the law?
    • Planned Parenthood and Government Shutdowns
    • Fiorina’s Face
  • (1:02:20-1:42:06) Debate Segment II
    • Immigration
    • Fiorina/Trump Business Records
    • Tax Plans and Budgets
    • Minimum Wage
    • Political Styles
  • (1:43:13-2:16:07) Debate Segment III
    • Trump knowing Foreign Policy
    • Would Jeb be a repeat of 41 and 43 on Foreign Policy?
    • Iraq / Syria / Afghanistan
    • Supreme Court / Abortion
  • (2:16:46-2:42:24) Debate Segment IV
    • Marijuana
    • Guns
    • Social Security
    • Climate Change
    • Vaccines and Autism
  • (2:43:02-3:03:32) Debate Segment V
    • Woman on the $10 bill
    • Secret Service Codenames
    • How will the world be different after your presidency?
  • (3:04:33-3:13:12) Wrap Up
    • Sam and Ivan predict the impact of the debate

Electoral College: Iowa average flips to Bush

Well, last time I noted the “First good news for Clinton in months!“. I mentioned then that one data point does not make a trend. And today, with the next change worth noting to the five best polled candidate combinations, we indeed don’t get more good news for Clinton. Instead, this time we get Iowa flipping to Bush:

chart-78

Only two of the last five polls in Iowa show a Bush lead, but they both show big leads. When averaged out, you have a 1.4% Bush margin… and a trend which has been moving away from Clinton since February. If the moves toward Hillary in New Hampshire mentioned in that last post were the start of any bottoming out for Clinton, there is no evidence of it here in Iowa. Indeed, if anything, the trend away from Clinton seems to be accelerating.

chart-79

In the national Bush vs Clinton view, Bush is now losing by 78 electoral votes in the “expected” case where each candidate wins every state where they lead the poll averages. Yes, this is still a loss, but it is better than Bush has done in this matchup since the start of polling for 2016.

chart-80

Looking at how Bush is doing compared to the rest of the best polled Republicans, Rubio is still doing better against Clinton, but Bush isn’t far behind. Huckabee, Paul and Walker’s margins against Clinton are significantly worse. In this particular view, they aren’t really gaining on Clinton at all. This doesn’t give the full picture though, as a quick look at the tipping point shows:

chart (58)

Bottom line, despite the move in her direction last time, the overall trends continue to be against Clinton. When and if this deterioration stops, and how that affects the primary races, is the big question of the campaign at the moment.

428.1 days until the first general election polls close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Electoral College: First good news for Clinton in months!

I’ve mentioned a number of times at this point that Clinton has had a long streak of bad news. The last time one of my updates was unambiguously positive for Clinton was back in May! That streak ends today, with movement in New Hampshire prompted by a new PPP poll.

Three of the top five best polled candidate combinations flipped from “Weak Republican” to “Weak Clinton” because of this update:

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So for Rubio, Paul and Walker, New Hampshire flips back to blue (although not by much). Clinton vs Bush just narrowly avoided doing the same thing, as Bush’s margin declined from 1.6% to 0.2%, but didn’t quite pass over the line.

New Hampshire is a little state. Only 4 electoral votes. If you look at the “expected cases” this just makes a small move for each of these three candidates:

chart (57)

As a move, this isn’t all that much. And Clinton is significantly ahead on this metric against all five Republicans. So New Hampshire’s electoral votes aren’t determining the outcome here.

But after three months solid of posts where I’ve been talking about how the Republican position is getting stronger, and Clinton’s position was getting weaker, is there significance to a move, any move, actually going in Clinton’s direction? Well, maybe. But one point does not make a trend.

This could be an indicator that Clinton has bottomed for now and we’re not going to see further declines for the time being. Or, just as easily, perhaps these PPP results are a significant outlier, and not representative of an actual change of mood in New Hampshire, in which case the next New Hampshire polls may pull the state back into the red zone.

As usual, we will just have to wait and see. In the meantime though, Clinton’s losing streak has been broken.

493.0 days until polls start closing.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Electoral College: Rubio takes lead in Iowa, Missouri slips out of Clinton’s reach

Two sets of changes worth noting today triggered by new PPP polls in Iowa and Missouri. The streak of changes going against Clinton and in favor of the various Republicans continues. As I mentioned before, the last time one of my updates was unequivocally good news for Clinton was in May!

Iowa

chart (39)

The July Qunnipiac Poll showing Rubio with an 8% is looking kind of like an outlier, and without it we wouldn’t be quite there yet, but there has been a clear trend toward Rubio in the average going back a year. With the newest poll (plus that possible outlier) the average moves from “Weak Clinton” to “Weak Rubio”. This changes the “expected” result in this matchup:

chart (40)

The expected result is now Clinton 328 to Rubio 210, which is a 118 electoral point loss by Rubio. Now, while this is still of course a significant loss, it is significant because it beats Romney’s 126 electoral vote loss against Obama in 2012. The last time one of the five best polled candidate combinations had the Republican outperforming Romney was back in June when Bush had pulled his expected loss down to only 98 electoral votes.

chart (41)

While there has been a general drumbeat of bad news for Clinton in my updates for the last three months, this particular chart doesn’t yet show an clear and indisputable breakout move beyond the range where these candidates have been bouncing around. If you only look at the changes since June, it starts to look like a trend though, and given the movement in other metrics, it is still reasonable to interpret this as a bad trend for Clinton.

The question though will be if the Republicans can start an actual breakout move where instead of talking about how it looks like they might beat Romney, we start talking about how it looks like they might beat Clinton. We aren’t close to that yet.

One thing people have been speculating about has been if the prominence of Trump on the Republican side right now is actually harming the party overall, specifically in terms of the ability of the other candidates to compete against Clinton. So far, there is no evidence for that at all in the numbers we track here.

Missouri

When I officially launched the election tracking site and posted my first analysis for 2016 I mentioned that if you looked at the average results for the last five general elections… the data I used to “seed” the analysis before there were actual state polls… there were only SIX states where the average margin in these five elections was less than 5%. They were Nevada (Dem+2.8%), Ohio (Dem+1.7%), Florida (Dem+0.9%), Colorado (Rep+0.0%), Virginia (Rep+1.6%) and Missouri (Rep+2.8%). All of these states were polled long ago, some many times…  except Missouri. Today’s PPP poll is the first 2016 polling for Missouri that I am aware of. So finally, we get a current view of the state.

Missouri was basically on this “Close State” list because Bill Clinton won the state by 6.3% in 1996, the oldest of the five elections I used for the initial average. Since then the Republicans won by 3.3%, 7.2%, 0.1%, and 9.4%. OK, that 0.1% in 2008 was really close. And the 3.3% in 2000 wasn’t a complete blow out. But in general it seems like the trend has been redder in Missouri.

The new poll tested Clinton against 11 different Republicans.  She lost by between 7% and 15% depending on which Republican you looked at.  (They also tested Sanders against 4 Republicans with similar results.)

Bottom line, looks like 2016 is looking a lot more like 2012 or 2004 than 2008 or 2000. That is, a pretty strongly Republican state. Now, it is just one poll, but the results are strong enough that the state immediately moved from “Weak Republican” to “Strong Republican” for all five of the best polled candidate combinations. (And actually for all the rest of the combinations they polled too.)

The chart of this isn’t actually all that interesting on a state level. But Missouri no longer being a close state means that Clinton’s “best case” against all five Republicans weakens a little bit, so lets have a quick look at that graph:

chart (42)

You don’t see a lot of volatility in this chart, simply because there are a lot fewer polls of the states that make a difference here. You see a lot of polls around the tipping point, and around the states that are really close, because they give insight into if the Republicans are catching up. Given the current state of Clinton’s lead, polling of the states Republicans are generally already ahead in only gives insight into how much extra Clinton could win by if everything possible went her way, which is fundamentally less interesting.

Never the less, with Missouri’s 10 electoral votes out of play at the moment, Clinton’s best case margin drops by 20 electoral votes against all these candidates. In the case where she wins all the states she is ahead in, plus all the states where the Republican currently leads by less than 5%, she now beats Paul by 204 electoral votes. Rubio, Bush, Huckabee and Walker get beaten by a more modest 156 electoral votes. These are of course pretty good margins in today’s polarized electorate. But to get to these kinds of numbers, just about everything would have to go Clinton’s way…  which is not the trend today.

But of course, we have 454.2 days until the election. Lots can change in 454.2 days. :-)

Best Polled List

I should also mention that the “best polled” list got shuffled a bit with the latest updates.  Clinton vs Paul once again grabs the “best polled” spot and becomes the default view on election2016.abulsme.com. Meanwhile Clinton vs Christie drops to 6th place and out of the group we highlight here, replaced by Clinton vs Huckabee returning to the top five after a short absence. Clinton vs Huckabee is just barely out of the top 5, but any other candidate combinations are far behind in terms of the volume and breadth of available polling on the state level at the moment. We’re currently giving the most attention here to Clinton vs Paul, Rubio, Bush, Huckabee and Walker.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Sam and Ivan MST3K the Republican Debate!

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast Sam and Ivan throw the usual format out the window and instead give the MST3K treatment to the Republican Debate. If you don’t know what that means, what happened is we played the debate, and recorded our thoughts and reactions to it in real time. So if you didn’t watch the straight up debate already, or even if you did, listen to our commentary now! Oh yeah, and at the beginning we talked a bit about a couple of recent robberies too.

CCCover20141121-bigheads-2
Recorded 2015-08-07

Length this week – 2:24:50

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Show Details:

  • Break-ins and Robberies
  • Republican Debate Segment 1
    • Intros
    • Support Nominee?
    • Electibility
    • Immigration
  • Republican Debate Segment 2
    • Immigration
    • Terror and National Security
    • Obamacare and role of Federal Government
  • Republican Debate Segment 3
    • Hillary Clinton
    • Economy, Jobs and Money
    • Iran Deal
  • Republican Debate Segment 4
    • Social Issues
  • Republican Debate Segment 5
    • Foreign Policy
  • Republican Debate Segment 6
    • God
    • Closing Statements
  • Wrap Up Analysis

Electoral College: New Hampshire turns (light) Red

First of all, a little bookkeeping.  With the latest batch of polls, the “five best polled candidate combinations” gets shuffled up a bit. Clinton vs Huckabee falls off the top five (bye Huck!), replaced by Clinton vs Walker. Meanwhile, Clinton vs Rubio moves into the “best polled” slot, becoming the default view on the election2016.abulsme.com site. So, for the moment, that means the candidate combinations I’ll talk about in these updates are Clinton vs Rubio, Paul, Bush, Walker and Christie. Huckabee honestly is very close behind in the #6 spot. After that though there is a pretty big gap in polling before we get to the next combinations. There may be lots of talk about Trump lately. Or of Biden or Sanders as Clinton alternatives. Or of the other ELEVEN Republican candidates. But in comparison to the combinations I mentioned earlier, state level polling involving those folks is still pretty sparse. We’ll talk about the rest of the candidates if and when there is good enough polling on them to get them into the top five. Or at least close.

OK, with that out of the way, the main news from the latest polls. Specifically, with a WMUR poll in New Hampshire added in, this happened:

chart-69

Rubio, Paul, Bush, and Walker all took the lead in New Hampshire as measured by my poll average. Just barely. But still. They are now in the lead. Christie wasn’t polled this time, but was lagging the others quite a bit anyway.

Just a few months ago, New Hampshire was looking like it was pretty reliably “Strong Clinton” against almost all Republican challengers. (The exception being Christie amusingly enough, since he is now the weakest of the bunch.) This is a pretty big move. It seems to be parallel across many candidates, so it is likely this is more a case of Clinton getting weaker than anything any Republican candidate is doing specifically.

So what does New Hampshire flipping do to the “expected” results if the election was held today?

chart-70

Well, OK, a couple bumps there at the end. Even with this though, this particular chart doesn’t show a clear trend. All the lines are bouncing around, but aren’t clearly trending in one direction or another.

But, looking more generally at my Electoral College updates, the last time I did one that was fully and unreservedly about something moving in Clinton’s direction was in May! From the end of May, through June, through July, and now into August, every update has been about Republican gains. (There were a couple Clinton gains in the mix, but there were always overshadowed by moves toward the Republicans that happened at the same time.)

Despite this, everything points to Clinton still being way ahead overall. As one example of this, even with New Hampshire, none of the five candidates on the chart above even match Romney’s performance in 2012. The best of the bunch in “expected result”, Rubio and Paul, still lose to Clinton by 130 electoral votes.

Clinton can’t be happy with the trend though. Yes, things are expected to tighten. But I’m sure she would prefer if they didn’t anyway!

We still have lots of time until the election. The first Republican debates are coming up later today. Obviously the main thing people will be watching for are how it may impact the standing of the various candidates in the Republican race, but Democrats and Independents are watching too, so don’t be surprised if there are effects on the general election matchup too.

And of course, this is just the beginning of debate season. Many more to come…

460.7 days until the first general election polls close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on my 2016 Electoral College Analysis Site. All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

Curmudgeon’s Corner: The Search for Missing Keys

In the latest Curmudgeon’s Corner Sam and Ivan talk about:
* Hiding Things
* Patriot Act Drama
* Election 2016
* Economy Update
* Lightning Round

CCCover20141121-bigheads-2
Recorded 2015-06-04

Length this week – 1:35:58

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