This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



Curmudgeon’s Corner: Keep flipping the thing around

On this week’s Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast, Ivan joins Sam again to complain a bit about Cleveland and last week’s conversation about Volkswagen. Then the main topics for this week: Election 2016, the Speaker of the House, and Syria. To close it off, a lightning round talking about Breaking Bad, Star Wars, iPhones, that Raccoon story that has been going around, and more!

Click to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

Recorded 2015-10-01

Length this week – 1:44:41

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Show Details:

  • (0:00:15-0:18:03) But First
    • Cleveland
    • Agenda
    • Ivan on Volkswagen
  • (0:18:41-0:50:33) Election 2016
    • Post Debate Republican Polls
    • Thinning the Field
    • Clinton Attitude
    • Biden Getting In?
    • Fundraising
    • Clinton Email
  • (0:51:37-1:10:48) Speaker of the House
    • Resignation
    • Republicans Divided
    • Kevin McCarthy Different?
    • Republican Agenda Hurt by Hardliners?
    • Congressional Gridlock
    • Government Shutdowns
  • (1:11:49-1:22:27) Syria
    • Russia jumping in
    • US Approaches
  • (1:23:43-1:44:21) Lightning Round
    • TV Show: Breaking Bad
    • Pope Visit
    • iOS 9
    • Ad Blockers
    • iPhones one handed
    • Movie: Return of the Jedi
    • Raccoon Story

Electoral College: Clinton not even close to Bush in Florida now either

Another day, another state moving away from Clinton. This time it is Florida moving toward Bush:


In a pattern remarkably similar to Rubio’s, Bush has consistently been improving against Clinton in Florida for over a year. After a bit of a pause for a few months, that trend has now accelerated. As of the last poll the average goes to Bush +5.8%. This takes Florida out of the “close” category and out of what I consider to be Clinton’s “best case”.


Florida slipping out of Clinton’s reach is that notch in the bottom right of the “bubble” above. Clinton’s best case is now worse for her than her WORST case was back in June 2014. Although I predicted back in November that Clinton was probably at her high water mark and would fall from there, the degree of the fall has been dramatic. The open question is of course, “When does the bleeding stop?”. Right now Clinton is still ahead, although it is much closer than it once looked. But she is only a state or two away from actually being behind. (At least against Bush and Rubio.)

403.4 days until polls start to close on Election 2016.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on All of the charts and graphs seen here are from that site. Graphs, charts and raw data can be found there for the race nationally and in each state for every candidate combination that has been polled at the state level. In addition, comparisons of the best polled candidate combinations both nationally and each in each state are available. All charts above are clickable to go to the current version of the detail page the chart is from, which may contain more up to date information than the snapshots on this page, which were current as of the time of this post. Follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for specific poll details as I add them.

@abulsme tweets from 2015-10-01 (UTC)