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Curmudgeon’s Corner: Can’t handle the fact

This week on Curmudgeon’s Corner, the show was recorded before the attack in Nice, Trump’s final VP pick, and the attempted coup in Turkey. So there will be nothing about those things! But Sam and Ivan do of course talk quite a bit about Election 2016 anyway. The other major topic is racial tensions in the wake of the Philandro Castile and Dallas shootings. The show is rounded out with shorter discussions of hard drive failures, summer camp, the UK prime minister… and Pokemon Go!

Click below to listen or subscribe… then let us know your own thoughts!

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Recorded 2016-07-14

Length this week – 2:00:48

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Show Details:

  • (0:02:41-0:28:28) But First
    • Hard Drive Failure
    • Summer Camp
    • Job Flexibility
    • Pokemon Go
  • (0:29:49-1:07:58) Election 2016
    • Veepstakes
    • Rules Committee
    • RBG kerfuffle
    • Trump sues ex-staffer
    • Autoplay Videos / Multi-article stories
    • Republican Convention Agenda
    • Sanders endorses Clinton
    • Party Platforms
    • Swing Voters?
    • New UK Prime Minister
  • (1:08:37-2:00:27) Racial Tensions
    • Bush Dance and Speech
    • Philando Castile
    • Obama inflaming racial tensions?
    • Racial Differences in Police Cases
    • Dallas Attack
    • ALeXMXeLA.com
    • Bomb Robot
    • Dallas Motivations
    • Conservatives, protests, and police power

Note: Timestamps are accurate, but many audio players are not very precise on the timestamps they show, especially when scanning forwards and backwards, so depending on your player, if you scan to a specific time, you may not get exactly what is shown above and may have to scan back or forward a bit to get what is expected.

 

The Curmudgeon’s Corner theme music is generously provided by Ray Lynch.

Our intro is “The Oh of Pleasure” (Amazon MP3 link)

Our outro is “Celestial Soda Pop” (Amazon MP3 link)

Both are from the album “Deep Breakfast” (iTunes link)

Please buy his music!

Electoral College: Florida back to Clinton again

States with new poll data since the last update: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Kansas, Missouri

Florida is close. Less than a week ago Trump took the lead for the first time since March.

With the latest polls, Clinton once again has a narrow lead.

chart-208

With close states, do not be surprised if they go back and forth across the line.

With a big state like Florida, this can cause big fluctuations in the electoral college picture:

chart-209

So we now have a big spike where Trump very very briefly led narrowly in both Florida and Pennsylvania. Then later polls almost immediately reversed those gains.

We are now back at Clinton 347 to Trump 191 in the “expected case” where everybody just wins all the states they are ahead in. This is a familiar place to be.

The Republican convention starts in 2.0 days. The Democratic convention in 9.1 days. It will probably take until at least a week after both conventions are over, maybe even two or three weeks, to fully know if there have been any enduring changes due to the conventions. So be patient.

Historically, conventions produce short term “bounces” that are fairly transient. They may even be too short to see on a state by state basis. But if any longer lasting changes happen, you’ll see them here.

115.3 days until polls start to close.

Note: This post is an update based on the data on ElectionGraphs.com. Election Graphs tracks both a poll based estimate of the Electoral College and a numbers based look at the Delegate Races. All of the charts and graphs seen in this post are from that site. Additional graphs, charts and raw data can be found there. Follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter or like Election Graphs on Facebook to see announcements of updates or to join the conversation. For those interested in individual general election poll updates, follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter for all the polls as they are added. If you find the information in these posts interesting or useful, please consider visiting the tip jar.

@ElectionGraphs tweets from 2016-07-15 (UTC)

@ElecCollPolls tweets from 2016-07-15 (UTC)

  • 05:58:45 Poll Added: Marist in CO from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 43% to Trump 35% https://t.co/sBNoG2ffYV
  • 06:03:21 Poll Added: Marist w/4P in CO from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 39% to Trump 33% https://t.co/mEDMKenZxJ
  • 06:03:26 Full 4P results logged: Marist w/4P in CO from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 39% to Trump 33% to Johnson 13% to Stein 4%
  • 06:06:55 Poll Added: Marist in FL from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 44% to Trump 37% https://t.co/DVyFyT3Mr3
  • 06:09:50 Poll Added: Marist w/4P in FL from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 41% to Trump 36% https://t.co/DHtBQPbBz0
  • 06:09:55 Full 4P results logged: Marist w/4P in FL from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 41% to Trump 36% to Johnson 7% to Stein 4%
  • 06:13:07 Poll Added: Marist in NC from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 44% to Trump 38% https://t.co/yPzTBzxtA8
  • 06:17:54 Poll Added: Marist w/4P in NC from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 42% to Trump 36% https://t.co/X5nntwT5pz
  • 06:17:59 Full 4P results logged: Marist w/4P in NC from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 42% to Trump 36% to Johnson 7% to Stein 2%
  • 06:21:47 Poll Added: Marist in VA from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 44% to Trump 35% https://t.co/DCTkrowq34
  • 06:24:26 Poll Added: Marist w/4P in VA from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 41% to Trump 34% https://t.co/4EPXgWTRiw
  • 06:24:31 Full 4P results logged: Marist w/4P in VA from 2016-07-05 to 2016-07-10 – Clinton 41% to Trump 34% to Johnson 10% to Stein 2%
  • 06:39:10 Poll Added: SurveyUSA w/3P in KS from 2016-07-08 to 2016-07-11 – Clinton 36% to Trump 47% https://t.co/dacgKIS9qE
  • 06:39:15 Full 3P results logged: SurveyUSA w/3P in KS from 2016-07-08 to 2016-07-11 – Clinton 36% to Trump 47% to Johnson 8%
  • 07:07:55 That is all the polls for this round. Polls added in CO/FL/NC/VA/KS. No changes that trigger a blog post at @ElectionGraphs this time.

@abulsme tweets from 2016-07-15 (UTC)