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2012 Republican Delegate Count: Updates from Colorado and Wyoming

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have clinched the nomination.  If they get above 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

Wyoming and Colorado both have caucus type delegate allocation systems, where local caucuses earlier in the year are actually just the start of multi-month multi-stage processes.  Both Colorado and Wyoming had their state conventions this weekend finishing off the delegate selection in those states.

Compared to the earlier estimates based on caucus results, the non-Romneys got crushed.  Romney gained delegates.  Everybody else lost delegates.

This is not surprising.  It is common for the “clear winner” to end up taking far more delegates in the end than it looked like they would given the “straw poll” results at the first stage.

Looking more specifically…

  • Colorado:  The estimates after the caucuses were Santorum 13, Romney 12, Gingrich 4, Paul 4, and 3 uncommitted.  This now becomes Romney 13, Santorum 6, and 17 uncommitted. All 36 delegates from Colorado are officially uncommitted, but using the current stated preferences of the delegates we have a net today from Colorado of Romney +1, Gingrich -4, Paul -4, Santorum -7.
  • Wyoming:  The estimates after the caucuses were Romney 11, Santorum 8, Paul 6, Gingrich 2, and 2 uncommitted.  This now becomes Romney 22, Santorum 2, Paul 1, and 4 uncommitted.  In Wyoming the delegates are bound.  The net for the day in Wyoming is Romney +11, Gingrich -2, Paul -5, Santorum -6

Totaling the day we have Romney +12, Gingrich -6, Paul -9, Santorum -13.  This does not look like a good day for the non-Romneys.  Especially for Santorum.  I guess dropping out of the race doesn’t help one’s ability to compete for delegates.

Notice though that we actually lost 16 delegates from the totals as some delegates that were predicted to go for specific candidates ended up uncommitted to any candidate.  This actually increases the pool of potentially available delegates.  In theory this improves the situation slightly for Gingrich and Paul, because, hey, they might still convince those uncommitted delegates to vote for them.  (And indeed, some reports say many of those uncommitted delegates aren’t ready to support anybody else yet, but are not for Romney at this point either.)  Santorum lost enough delegates that his situation actually gets worse anyway.

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win”:

  • Romney:  42.49% -> 40.85%
  • Santorum:  77.56% -> 77.61%
  • Gingrich:  87.54% -> 86.85%
  • Paul:  94.70% -> 94.16%

I should also mention, that having these additional 16 delegates not committed brings the total number of delegates allocated by the estimates we use (the Green Papers soft count) back under 50% of the total number of delegates.  Which actually means that the candidates with no delegates right now (Bachman, Huntsman, Perry, random others) are now no longer mathematically eliminated, and could catch up and win by capturing 99.65% of the remaining delegates.  If they were actually on the ballot on all of the remaining states.  Which they are not.  :-)

So, uh, anyway…  Romney still wins.

2012 Republican Delegate Count: It Is Over (DC, MD, WI and ND Update)

Charts from the Abulsme.com 2012 Republican Delegate Count Graphs page.  When a candidate gets down to 0%, they have cinched the nomination.  If they get up past 100%, they have been mathematically eliminated.  The first chart is by date, the second is by “% of Delegates Already Allocated”.  These numbers include estimates of the eventual results of multi-stage caucus processes which will be refined as the later stages occur.

So…  this is it.  Long ago any realistic possibility for any non-Romney to win the nomination disappeared.  With today’s update the already long odds for the non-Romneys to keep Romney from getting to 1144 essentially drop to zero.  This is over.  Romney wins.  Without any sort of brokered convention.  For something else to happen now we’d need some event that was so earth shaking that Romney dropped out.  This is extremely unlikely.

Details below.

We have updates from four contests.  In alphabetical order:

  • DC:  DC is winner take all, Romney gets all 16 delegates.
  • Maryland: Maryland is not actually winner take all, you get some delegates for winning the state, and then more delegates go to the winner of each congressional district.  But Romney not only won the state, but every congressional district. So Romney gets all 37 delegates.
  • North Dakota:  North Dakota had the first round of its process in March.  At that time the delegate estimate was Santorum 11, Paul 8 , Romney 7 , Gingrich 2.  But the state Republican Convention happened last weekend, and Romney supporters owned the parliamentary process, taking the lion’s share of the delegates despite coming in third in March.  That’s how it works in caucus states sometimes.  It took a couple days for Green Papers to confirm a new estimate, but it now looks like Romney 20, Santorum 6, Paul 2.  So the net today is Romney +13, Gingrich -2, Santorum -5, Paul -6.
  • Wisconsin:  Wisconsin also allocates some delegates based on both state and CD winners.  Romney won the state.  Romney won 5 CDs.  Santorum won 3 CDs.  So overall we have a delegate count of Romney 33, Santorum 9

Add those up and we have a net total for today of Romney +99, Santorum +4, Gingrich -2, Paul -6  Obviously Romney completely dominated the day.

In terms of “% of remaining delegates needed to win” we have this:

  • Romney: 47.3% -> 42.5%
  • Santorum: 71.8% -> 77.5%
  • Gingrich: 80.5% -> 87.5%
  • Paul: 86.8% -> 94.6%

The also-rans who left the race early on…  Bachman, Huntsman and Perry…  are mathematically eliminated after today.  Paul, Gingrich and Santorum will inevitably join them soon.

The blocking Romney option?  At this point the non-Romneys collectively would need to get 57.5% of the remaining delegates.  So far they have managed 42.6% of the delegates.  A change of this sort, while not mathematically impossible, would be unprecedented, especially since we are in the phase of the campaign where it is clear Romney is winning and the others are losing.  People just stop voting for losers.  As things go on, the % of delegates the non-Romneys get will probably actually decline.  A major increase is just not going to happen.

It is over.

(We will of course continue to update these charts until Romney actually gets to 1144 however.)