This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



April 2008

First Round of PA Delegate Updates

Only 98 of 158 delegates have been called so far on the Democratic side, and CNN hasn’t bothered to predict a single delegate on the Republican side, but there have been no updates in the almost three and a half hours since my last post so I figure I’ll go ahead and do my update for Wednesday.

You can see on the chart at a visible narrowing of the gap between Obama and Clinton. That is of course the result of the delegates declared so far from the Pennsylvania Primary.

Lets run the numbers.

The new delegate count is: Obama 1694, Clinton 1556, Edwards 18

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.6%, Edwards 0.6%

(Yesterday it was: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.6%)

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 780 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 331 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 469 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 42.4% of the remaining delegates to win.

This is DOWN from the 42.9% it was yesterday.

Clinton needs 60.1% of the remaining delegates to win.

This is UP from the 59.3% it was yesterday.

Bottom line, based on the results so far from the Pennsylvania primary…


Not that you could ever tell that given the media coverage.

After Four Hours

98 of 158 delegates predicted (62.0%)

52 Clinton, 46 Obama

Clinton’s Percentage: 53.1%, less than the 59.3% she needs.

Obama’s Percentage: 46.9%, more than the 42.9% he needs.

After Three Hours

77 of 158 delegates predicted (48.7%)

40 Clinton, 37 Obama

Clinton’s Percentage: 51.9%

Way less than the 59.3% she needs.

That Didn’t Last Long

68 out of 158 delegates (43.0%) now predicted. It is now Clinton 37, Obama 31. Clinton’s percentage is down to 54.4%… below the 59.3% pace she needs to actually make the rest of the race easier for her rather than harder.

After Two Hours

As of two hours after the polls closed, CNN has projected 47 of the 158 delegates (29.7%). Of those, Clinton has 28, Obama has 19. Clinton’s percentage is 59.6%… which is ABOVE the 59.3% she needs to be on a “winning pace” for the nomination. If she keeps up this delegate margin for the rest of the night, this will ACTUALLY be a significant victory for her rather than just a spin victory.

Keep watching those delegates. Ignore the popular vote numbers. They don’t matter.

Bot Magic

To whatever botnet has been spamming using my email address as the “From:” over the last 24 hours or so, thank you very much for the hundreds and hundreds of bounce messages. I do love them.

As Expected

About 5 minutes ago CNN declared their projection for Clinton in PA. Popular vote of course. No word yet on the margin in popular vote, let alone the margin in delegates, which is what matters.

Of course, Hillary getting over 50% of the popular vote is *NOT* worth even looking at. As I talked about yesterday the only number worth actually watching is if Clinton wins enough delegates to make the percentage of delegates she needs in the rest of the race SMALLER rather than LARGER. In order to do that, she needs to win 94 of the 158 delegates at stake tonight. That is the only number that matters.

Or at least it is the only number that SHOULD matter.

(If you are looking at CNN’s screens and see the occasional delegate total, be careful, they are showing Pennsylvania superdelegates who declared before today as well as new delegates from today, don’t get confused between the two.)