This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



April 2008

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Ivan Under the Sea

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Ivan’s Portuguese
  • CNN International
  • Global Food Crisis
  • Ivan’s Crappy Connection
  • Ivan Reviews Unbox
  • Pentagon Domestic PsyOps
  • Those Wacky Democrats
  • What Day is it Again?

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Electoral College: Obama strengthens in Massachusetts

Surprisingly, given how the last few weeks have gone for Obama, today brings some good news for him on the Electoral College front vs McCain. If you just take where all the states (including “leaning” states) seem to be right now, he is still losing. But Massachusetts support seems to be strengthening as my “last five poll” average from that state pulls it from “leaning Obama” to “weak Obama”. Basically this means that McCain winning Massachusetts is no longer in the “McCain Best Case” scenario.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 345, Obama 193
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260

Edwards Makes His Move!

No, there are no updates on those last two remaining Democratic delegates from PA. Nor has CNN finally gotten around to posting Republican delegate results for PA.

But we do have the results from the latest stages of Iowa’s multi-stage delegate selection process. And the net result? Obama *loses* one delegate… and Edwards (remember him) picks up a delegate. Will this just be the beginning for Edwards? Nah… but still…

Meanwhile, some superdelegate moves. One Mississippi superdelegate flips from Clinton to Obama. Plus Obama picks up a superdelegate in Oregon.

Net result today, Obama gains a delegate, Clinton loses one, Edwards gains one.

Updated stats:

The new delegate count is: Obama 1725, Clinton 1588, Edwards 19

In percent terms that is: Obama 51.8%, Clinton 47.7%, Edwards 0.6%

(Before PA it was: Obama 52.0%, Clinton 47.4%, Edwards 0.6%)

2025 delegates are needed to win.

There are 716 delegates yet to be determined.

Obama needs 300 more delegates to win.

Clinton needs 437 more delegates to win.

In percentage terms, that means:

Obama needs 41.9% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 42.9% before PA.)

Clinton needs 61.0% of the remaining delegates to win. (It was 59.3% before PA.)

The Good Reverend

I have no idea if Rev. Wright “hates America”. I’m thinking probably not. But it is certainly clear that he is not very fond of Barack Obama. Because if he was, then he would have just hidden under a rock and shut the hell up until at least November. As it is, he just single handedly destroyed Obama’s chances of winning Indiana. Good job there.