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April 2008
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Electoral College: Obama loses strength in New York

A new poll in New York drops my average for that state from “Strong Obama” to “Weak Obama”. The actual new poll is interesting as it actually shows McCain ahead. In a state that showed a strong Obama lead in previous polls, this is not something Obama will be happy about. The extended primary campaign *is* hurting Obama in the general election contest.

Also interesting is that this poll also gave a seperate question when hypothetical VPs were included. McCain adding Rice as a VP added 1 point to his poll results. Obama adding Clinton as a VP dropped his poll results by 2 points.

Anyway, since NY is still “weak” and hasn’t dropped all the way to “lean”, it doesn’t affect the summary, but I will repeat it anyway.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 340, Obama 198
Obama Best Case – Obama 362, McCain 176

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 283, Obama 255