This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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April 2008
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Poll Ups and Downs

I’ve been watching the pollster.com PA Page over the last couple of weeks. You can’t just look at the line today, as when they get new polls the “past” of the line changes as well as the present, but what I’ve seen watching it day to day is this trend in Clinton’s lead:

  • Right before “bittergate”: 4.4%
  • After the worst of bittergate: 6.4%
  • Obama’s maximum recovery: 5.1%
  • Now: 6.9%

It seems like post-debate and as we run into the stretch the undecideds are breaking for Hillary. She is NOT anywhere close to the 20% margin (in delegates, not popular vote) to really be on pace to catch up on delegates. But she *is* within reach of the 10% or so “big victory” that will undoubtedly have the press falling all over the Hillary momentum story.

Bleh.

[Edit 10 minutes later: Changed now number from 7.1% to 6.9%, I subtracted wrong.]

[Note 30 minutes later: More polls coming in, now number is now 6.1%]

[Note at 16:34: Yet more polls, now 6.0%]

[Note at 23:37: Even more polls, now 6.3%]

Curmudgeon’s Corner: Popes, Potters and Pennsylvania

Sam and Ivan talk about:

  • Pope Visit
  • Disputed Elections
  • Harry Potter Intellectual Property
  • Matt Colbert
  • Pennsylvania Primary
  • Pennsylvania Debate
  • Food Riots
  • The Rest of the Race

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Electoral College: PA Keeps Flipping, McCain Back in Lead

New poll in PA and my rolling average once again flips which side of the “leaning” fence it is on. This time PA goes from Leaning Obama back to Leaning McCain. PA is just a close state. If this keeps up, it could be the Florida of 2008.

Anyway, Pennsylvania flipping changes the lead, and McCain is once again ahead if you give everybody their leaning states.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 357, Obama 181
Obama Best Case – Obama 330, McCain 208

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – McCain 278, Obama 260

Have I mentioned this is still insanely close?