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June 2008

Electoral College: Washington gets Stronger for Obama

New polls push Obama’s lead in Washington State over 10% moving it from the “weak” category to “strong”.

Just as a review, “leaning” states are ones where the lead is less than 5%, so they are very actively in play as swing states. “Weak” states are ones where the lead is between 5% and 10%… they are not really currently in play, but there is the possibility that events or heavy campaigning might put those states back into the game as we go on. “Strong” states are ones where one candidate has a lead of greater than 10%… meaning absent major changes in the state of the race, those states are “safe” and are very unlikely to be actively “in play”… absent, of course, very major changes.

We do have many months until the election. These charts and graphs and numbers really should NOT be viewed as a prediction of the actual election results. We are too far out. They should be viewed as a snapshot of the state of the campaign RIGHT NOW. And looking at the historical charts you can try to look for trends as time goes on. But we do have a LONG WAY until the actual election.

Current Summary:

McCain Best Case – McCain 313, Obama 225
Obama Best Case – Obama 333, McCain 205

And if everybody gets their leans (and Obama gets DC) – Obama 277, McCain 261

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