This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Comments here or emails to me at abulsme@abulsme.com are encouraged... or follow me on Twitter as @abulsme.

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October 2008
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Electoral College: Another Day, Another State Strengthens for Obama

Today Minnesota, which has been flirting with the 5% Obama lead line, once again goes over 5%. So Minnesota stops being a swing state, and goes into the “Weak Obama” category. The effect, McCain’s best case scenario moves even further from being a win.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 291, McCain 247
Obama Best Case – Obama 375, McCain 163

If everybody gets their leans – 353 Obama, 185 McCain

Now, even with this, if Florida weakens back into a swing state, McCain will have a path to victory… a hard path, which would involve sweeping all the swing states, even those Obama is ahead in… but it would be a path.

But for the moment, we continue to have a situation where McCain’s best case is losing.

Which is why he campaign has indicated that they are essentially about to enter into a scorched earth strategy. All negative, and with everything they have. It is about the only thing they can do at the moment. We’ll see if it works.

Bird in House

This little guy spent several hours in our house today. It would sit on various things, but fly around whenever anybody came too close to it. (Other than a few times it let us within inches before flying away.)

It finally accidentally flew outside a little bit ago. Then it hung around for several minutes and tried a couple of times to come back in, but we had closed the door. It liked it in here. Eventually though, it gave up and flew to the neighbors house.

Timelapse Sky