This is the website of Abulsme Noibatno Itramne (also known as Sam Minter). Posts here are rare these days. For current stuff, follow me on Mastodon



October 2008

Electoral College: New Hampshire Weakens for Obama Again

Polls in 17 states today, but once again, only one state changes status. And this time it is NOT Florida. Obama’s lead in the last five poll average slips below 10% in New Hampshire. It has only moved into “Strong Obama” one week ago. Now it slips back to “Weak Obama”. Since New Hampshire is still not even close to being a swing state, this makes no difference to the summaries.

New Summary:

McCain Best Case – Obama 286, McCain 252
Obama Best Case – Obama 380, McCain 158

If everybody gets their leans – 364 Obama, 174 McCain

Between Florida staying in swing state territory for more than a day, and New Hampshire weakening a bit, if you choose to, you can look at this and start to see some movement toward McCain, perhaps indicating the start of the tightening in the race that one would generally expect in the last few weeks. I don’t think we really have enough evidence for that quite yet though. If a few more states move in McCain’s direction over the next few days, then we will be able to say that. But not yet.

For the moment, McCain is still in a very bad position, still giving Obama a victory even if McCain wins every single state that is close right now. To have a chance he needs to start pulling some Obama Weak states back down to Obama Lean, and some Obama Lean to McCain Lean. And he needs to do it fast.